张无忌wepoets

【9.6 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Data dominates market sentiment, will non-farm payrolls lead to a weekend market crash? 】

Last night, recession expectations rose again, and analysts believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 45%.

The ADP employment data, known as the "small non-farm payrolls", unexpectedly fell to 99,000, a three-and-a-half-year low, showing a sharp slowdown in the labor market. Tonight, the August non-farm payrolls data will affect the market and will have a huge impact on the September rate cut.

On the other hand, the US ISM service industry index in August has expanded moderately for two consecutive months, and the final value of the Markit service industry PMI is the highest in nearly two and a half years, and recession concerns have been dispelled.

The data-dominated market sentiment model of the US economy has gone a bit crazy. Once the subsequent data gets out of control, the Federal Reserve and even the entire US market may be backfired by the data.

However, there is still good news in China. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has risen, which will push up the A-share market index; on the other hand, Guotai Junan merged with Haitong, and the brokerage firm's big move indicates a rebound in the stock market.

How should cryptocurrency traders choose at the crossroads where US stocks are falling and A-shares are expected to rise? Obviously, the trend of Bitcoin has clearly followed the trend of US technology stocks.

In the next month, it is very necessary to prepare for a correction or even a plunge and take insurance measures.

Tonight's non-agricultural data is the first test.

Suggestions:

Ambush the double buy strategy half an hour in advance and bet on gamma riots and volatility surges.

After the data is released, monitor the opening trend of US stocks. If the stock trend is not good, stop loss and exit in advance. If there is a large fluctuation in US stocks, you can hold the position overnight and bet on the simultaneous plunge or surge of Bitcoin.

The seller recommends that you can clear the position in advance and re-establish the position on the weekend according to the change in volatility. September is a month to test patience and technology. The decline is not terrible. As long as you master the rhythm of volatility changes, the double sell strategy can still be profitable.

For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[9.9 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Another super data week, the interest rate cut decision is likely to disturb the market in advance]

Last week, the market generated great recession concerns under the influence of non-agricultural data, and the downward trend was obvious. This week, we ushered in another super data week, and it is close to the interest rate meeting. This time window is extremely sensitive.

If the Apple conference on Tuesday is lackluster, it is likely to bring down the technology stocks. The United States will release August CPI on Wednesday and August PPI on Thursday, which will directly affect the September interest rate cut decision and will inevitably have a huge impact on the stock market.

In addition, the Chinese stock market will be closed on September 16 and 17 due to the Mid-Autumn Festival. It is not ruled out that the Americans will take the opportunity to cause trouble.

This week's currency circle has a good start. Traders are basically confident about the September interest rate cut, and many people are sure that the interest rate will exceed expectations by 50 basis points.

However, the process from interest rate cut to water release, and water release to inflow into the currency circle is not inevitable, but only theoretically. However, with the influence of more economic fundamentals, the expectation that the interest rate cut will definitely soar is untenable.

Recently, the weakening trading sentiment of Bitcoin ETF is also a clear proof. One of the necessary conditions for a bull market is a rate cut, but it is not the only condition.

Therefore, on the eve of a rate cut, it is better to take precautions against black swans and not be blindly optimistic.

Recommendations for this week:

Go long on Bitcoin, you can ambush the bull spread strategy at the end of September, and once the market starts, you will not miss the gains.

Short Ethereum volatility, continue to double sell and hang insurance. At the same time, double sell some sol. The logic is: Bitcoin has low volatility, ETH and sol have high volatility, and you can earn volatility differences by buying low and selling high.

Pay attention to a copycat coin, STX. The logic of this coin is that it is a second-layer concept of Bitcoin, which can deploy smart contracts and allow the Bitcoin chain to do defi. This is a concept with a lot of hype space.

If Bitcoin takes off, superimposed with BTC defi, there is still plenty of imagination.

Go long on Bitcoin and short on STX, it is a good hedging option. However, you need to choose the time, and short after STX breaks through the upper track of the daily Bollinger band.

For more details, please join the Ice and Fire Island community to discuss.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[9.19 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: After the 50 basis point rate cut, Powell played the master of balancing, the market outlook is still divided, and the seller strategy is dominant]

Last night, many traders fought all night and gained a lot of loneliness. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points and hinted that there is still a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut this year. However, Powell's next speech dampened the joy of traders.

Powell said that investors cannot assume that a 50 basis point rate cut is the new rhythm in the future. Data will drive monetary policy choices, and rate cuts will be accelerated, slowed down or paused as needed. To sum up, what he meant is that whether interest rates will be cut in the future or not, the data will have the final say, attitude is no attitude, plan is no plan, cross the river by feeling the stones, and everything will be seen.

U.S. stocks fell in response, rising and falling, and everyone stayed up all night to stay lonely. Bitcoin and Ethereum also fluctuated, showing that traders' opinions continued to differ.

At the close of last night, the S&P closed down 0.29% and the Dow closed down 0.25%, reporting 41503.10 points. The Nasdaq closed down 0.31%, the Russell closed up 0.04%, and the VIX panic index closed up 3.52%.

The Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 52.7 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 14.7 million. The volatility of the two rose slightly, but remained near the historical median.

Overall analysis shows that the strategy for this week and even this month is still mainly short volatility.

Suggestions:

On the one hand, you can continue to short forward volatility and maintain delta neutrality. It is recommended to sell the out-of-the-money delta20 position in December and buy October options for protection. The specific details have been posted in the community.

On the other hand, aggressive islanders can double sell cycle rights and use DDH tools to assist. In the DDH threshold setting, the unilateral total delta value can be used as the threshold for triggering hedging.

Before November, wide fluctuations will continue. Powell is worthy of being a master of balancing water. Data determines interest rates. He can both get rid of responsibility and manipulate the market. He is really a financial expert. It is worth learning from the next door.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate.
#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[9.4 hedging strategy sharing, Nvidia repeats Tesla's past, will this round of decline in US stocks bring down the cryptocurrency market? ]

The black swan of data week still took off. Overnight, US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.5%, the S&P falling 2.1%, the Nasdaq falling 3.2%, and the VIX rising 32%. Nvidia repeated Tesla's past, plummeting 9.5%, and it is estimated that it is also going to cut the rhythm of development.

Did the US stock market turn from bull to bear overnight? The reason is that the two PMI data released in the United States have triggered market concerns about future economic stagflation. In fact, there is no need to worry. The myth of a soft landing of the economy has long been ignored, and stagflation is already a partial fact.

The fragile nerves of market traders are led by data, and the real visionaries have already completed the sell-off, so the market downturn is not surprising.

The real worry is whether the interest rate cut in September can be carried out as expected to save the confidence of traders.

The cryptocurrency market is more affected by market confidence, and the implied volatility has soared back to a high level, and the implied volatility is much higher than the historical volatility. The volatility of expiring options is even higher, and the spring of sellers has come again.

This week's recommendations:

Try to focus on covered call and short volatility strategies, and hang up insurance.

Volatility has skyrocketed, so it is not suitable to be a buyer.

The volatility of expiring options has skyrocketed. You can sell high and buy low according to the term structure to arbitrage the volatility difference. However, the risk is relatively high, so remember to bring insurance.

Overall, after this wave of plunge, the rise of encryption can still be expected.

The logic is simple. When the economy was stagnant, Bitcoin was the real code of wealth. Don't lose confidence, hold on to your chips, and wait for the flowers to bloom.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate together.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[9.3 hedging strategy sharing, September and October are golden or will the market fall every September? Where should cryptocurrency traders go? ]

People are prone to illness at the turn of summer and autumn. The cryptocurrency market and even the entire market are also sick and weak.

There is a saying in China that September is golden and October is silver, but the sharp rise last week and the retreat this week still show that market confidence is fragile and they are all short-term traders.

In the United States, there is a saying that every September will fall, and it is believed that most US stocks will face a fall in September due to financial reports and investment strategy adjustments.

The cryptocurrency market closely follows US technology stocks and can even be regarded as the crypto branch of Nasdaq. If you want crypto to rise, interest rate cuts and water releases are the only way.

This Friday, the US non-agricultural data will be released. This will be the most important data release before the interest rate meeting, and the market is likely to be greatly disturbed.

From the perspective of volatility, the implied volatility of Bitcoin has reached a historical low, and the probability of rising waves has greatly increased. The implied volatility of Ethereum is still in the median, and the probability of continuing to go sideways is relatively high.

There is no fixed relationship between volatility and price fluctuations. In theory, both a big rise and a big fall will lead to higher volatility. However, in practice, a sharp rise in volatility in the currency circle is often accompanied by a sharp drop in prices, and a sharp rise in prices is often accompanied by a drop in volatility. This is inconsistent with the relationship between volatility and price in the stock market.

Therefore, if Bitcoin continues to rise, we have reason to believe that prices will continue to fall. In order to avoid tail risks, insurance for Bitcoin should be put up. It is very simple to put up insurance, just buy out-of-the-money put options.

Before Bitcoin's volatility returns to above the historical median line, there is no confidence in predicting Bitcoin's rebound or even a strong rise to a new high.

The same is true for Auntie. Its current volatility is still relatively high, proving that market traders still have some expectations for the future market. It might as well hold some forward ambushes and wait for the flowers to bloom.

This week:

Continue to hold the double sell + ddh strategy.

Warm reminder: The hedging trigger threshold of ddh cannot be too small, otherwise it will swallow up the income. Too frequent hedging will result in amazing handling fees. I have already stepped on the landmine for everyone.

For more details, welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[8.29 hedging strategy sharing, US stocks fell across the board, US Treasury yields inverted, and the market confidence in the cryptocurrency market is insufficient]

Last night, US stocks fell across the board, and Nvidia's financial report after the market was mediocre, which did not exceed traders' expectations.

US stocks have already reacted during the session, and technology stocks fell across the board. The Nasdaq closed down 1.12%, the S&P closed down 0.60%, and the Dow closed down 0.39%. The Russell closed down 0.65%. The VIX closed up 1.69%. Nvidia fell as much as 8% during the session.

It is worth noting that the US Treasury yield has recently resumed its inversion, with short-term yields higher than long-term yields, indicating that the market lacks confidence in the economy.

Affected by this, the cryptocurrency market is also facing a pullback. Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 94.9 million yesterday, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 3.8 million.

The volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum is relatively stable and still at a historical low. At present, the downward trend and momentum of prices are still high.

Recently, the downward trend of the cryptocurrency market was predicted, but in order to test the effect of DDH, Toutiao did not close the position.

Double sell + DDH fell below the price range, and the overall hedging effect of the DDH tool was tested. The advantage is that it can effectively reduce losses, but the disadvantage is also obvious. In the face of the change of one real and one virtual leg of the double sell, the hedging balance is more difficult to maintain, and frequent hedging will occur; at the same time, it is not conducive to intermediate position adjustment. In the face of changes in delta values, it will cause dislocation in hedging exposure.

Therefore, it is recommended:

Adopting the strategy of double sell + DDH, before judging the arrival of large volatility, you should try to close or open a position to reduce losses. DDH cannot be relied on to fight risks. It can reduce 90% of losses, but it will still cause slight losses.

In the downward trend of volatility, you can try to short volatility by selling calls, but you must hang insurance to avoid tail risks. Be cautious when selling puts. Downward volatility is often accompanied by a plunge. You can choose to sell puts after the plunge to fight for a rebound.

No matter what direction you sell, you must hang insurance.

For more details, please join the Ice and Fire Island community.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[9.18 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Market trading enthusiasm has rebounded, let's bet on the rising wave tonight]

Last night, the positive US retail data pushed up US stocks, and trading confidence was relatively abundant before the announcement of the interest rate cut results.

US retail sales increased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, better than the expected decline of 0.2%, and the July data was revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 1.1%. Although retail data cannot reflect the development of the pillar industries in the United States, it is still of great significance for measuring the effect of the soft landing of the economy.

Affected by this, US stocks opened higher and fell slightly at the close. The S&P closed up 0.03%, the Dow closed down 0.04%, the Nasdaq closed up 0.20%, the Russell closed up 0.74%, and the VIX panic index closed up 2.80%.

If the soft landing of the US stock market economy has been successful, will the interest rate meeting decision tonight really cut interest rates by 50 basis points? This may also be a myth that confuses the market.

There are still more than ten hours before the lid is lifted, let's look forward to it together.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have already risen, reflecting the optimistic mentality of traders. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 187 million, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 15.1 million, with high trading enthusiasm.

Today's suggestion:

When the U.S. stock market opens, you can open a double-buy strategy appropriately according to the trend of the U.S. stock market, and buy the call and put options that are about to expire at the same time, near the at-the-money level.

Look for surprises tomorrow morning. Expect volatility to surge, gamma to riot, and you can get excess returns. In terms of direction, I am more bearish. In case the result of the interest rate hike does not meet market expectations, there is a great possibility of a sharp drop.

In addition, the strategy on the 19th is to sell at high volatility. If the market still has no obvious direction on the 19th, but volatility increases, it is time for sellers to re-enter the market. See you at 8 o'clock tomorrow morning.

For more details, welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

SOL has recently seen a significant rebound, especially in block trading, which is a very strong signal. Coupled with the positive news of CME launching SOL futures, it is expected to rebound to the 160 level. From the gamma distribution, we can also see that the negative gamma area is concentrated around 140, leading to increased volatility. Positive gamma is concentrated at 160. There is no significant resistance between 140 and 160. #冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets #加密期权

[8.23 hedging strategy sharing, US stocks down, recession approaching, market risk remains high]

This Thursday, the annual meeting of global central banks will open in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. Before the meeting, Federal Reserve officials told the media that they would start to cut interest rates soon.

However, recent negative data seems to have a greater impact on traders. Last night,

The S&P 500 closed down 0.89%, the Dow closed down 0.43%, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.67%. Among them, Nvidia fell 3.7%. Huang Renxun's recent sale of Nvidia shares has aroused dissatisfaction among institutions and investors.

From Buffett to Huang Renxun, capital tycoons seem to have smelled the risk signals in the air and have cashed in their assets. Is this a clear bearish view?

From the perspective of global monetary policy trends, central banks of various countries generally try to raise interest rates and tighten. The current monetary policy of the United States is already at the limit of tightening. When and how much interest rates will be cut is still unknown.

The market's concerns about recession have offset the benefits of interest rate cuts.

The AI ​​market bubble, the real estate bubble, the weak labor market, and the booster for the world economy seem to have not been found or have failed. In the face of the recession cycle, the only way to maintain a soft landing may be to falsify data.

It is not shameful to admit that the economy is growing slowly or in recession. Thirty years in the east, thirty years in the west. Some people get rich and some go bankrupt during the recession.

However, we must make good risk response measures under the judgment of the direction of the general situation.

This week's recommendations:

Continue to maintain the recent double-sell strategy. At the same time, appropriately increase the protection against falling risks.

There will be large fluctuations in the interest rate cut in September, and you can bet on both sides. Ratio spreads are a good choice.

The sharp rise in the Shanzhai rebound is an expectation of interest rate cuts. You can hedge at highs, and the decline of Shanzhai in the future market is a high probability event. You can go long on big cakes and short on Shanzhai at highs.

For more details, please join the Binghuodao community to communicate.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 #张无忌wepoets $ETH

[8.27 hedging strategy sharing, strong bullish sentiment in the US stock market, the cryptocurrency circle maintained volatility, and the implied volatility fell to a historical low]

Last night, the US stock sector rotated, the Dow Jones closed up 0.18%, setting a record high, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.85%. Pinduoduo, a Chinese stock, fell 28.5%. The seven sisters of technology stocks also fell across the board.

Affected by this, both Bitcoin and Ethereum retreated. It is worth mentioning that the implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped rapidly and has entered a historical low.

Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 200 million yesterday, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 13 million. It can be seen that the market's bullish sentiment on Bitcoin has begun to heat up, which is confirmed by the downward trend of implied volatility.

From a logical analysis, market traders should have restored their confidence in Bitcoin trading in view of the expected September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to risky assets. The downward volatility of Bitcoin has also laid a good price foundation for buyers to enter the market. Sellers need to beware of the huge fluctuations in Bitcoin prices and guard against extreme market risks.

From the perspective of option response:

It is recommended to ambush forward bull spread strategy or ratio spread strategy when volatility is low and option prices are cheap, waiting for the rise in volatility and the riot of gamma.

For double sell positions, it is recommended to roll over when the profit exceeds 50%, and open a position one standard deviation away from the forward. At this time, leaving more room for growth is more cost-effective than collecting more premiums.

In terms of pairs trade, yesterday in Binance Square, a hedging combination of long sol and short ton was prompted, and the profit was good this morning.

The logic is that the negative speculation of ton will continue, while sol will benefit from the interest rate cut fomo sentiment and will usher in a wave of repair rebound.

For more details, welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate together.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[9.5 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: US stocks are in a downturn, and the September interest rate cut will become the turning point of the market bull and bear market]

Last night, the US stock market was affected by the deteriorating economic data of US employment, showing a downturn. The S&P closed down 0.16%, the Dow closed up 0.09%, the Nasdaq closed down 0.3%, and the Russell closed down 0.19%. The VIX panic index closed up 2.9%.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book was released, showing economic slowdown, falling prices, and cooling recruitment. The two-year US Treasury yield fell by more than 10 basis points, once ending the inverted trend with the ten-year US Treasury.

All the above signs indicate that the risk of recession has increased and the expectation of interest rate hikes is urgent. Some analysts said that the US stock market will turn down around mid-September, and market traders have already traded in advance of this expectation. At the same time, he reminded that the November election season will become a risk asset liquidation event. The bearish attitude is evident.

The September interest rate meeting is not far away, and the rate cut may become a turning point for bull and bear markets. You can ambush in advance.

The currency circle rebounded yesterday and is still moving below the middle track of the Bollinger Band. From the data, the Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 37.2 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 37.5 million, and the downward trend remains.

In terms of volatility, the implied volatility of Big Pie and Auntie still maintains a relatively high level, and the volatility of the upcoming period has dropped from yesterday's high to normal. Overall, market traders are still cautious about the future market, and the implied volatility is lower than the historical volatility, showing the decline of market trading sentiment.

At present, the buyer's strategy can bet on the gamma riot, and the data on Friday may cause market disturbances. The seller's strategy continues to sell double, but it is recommended to leave more space on the put side and hang insurance.

Before the interest rate meeting, the market will repeatedly fluctuate and rub widely. Don't get lost in the band. The day when the clouds and fog are cleared and the direction is determined is not far away.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate together.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[8.26 hedging strategy sharing, September rate cut forecast is hot, and the resonance of China-US easing is expected to drive the market up]

In the new week, market sentiment has obviously become hot. Coming out of the shadow of weak US data in August and the black swan of the Japanese yen, US stocks basically recovered their losses and set a new high at the end of the month.

Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting turned dovish, basically setting the tone for a rate cut in September, and the market forecast is 25 basis points. There is also optimism that a 50 basis point rate cut may be possible.

Gold and US bonds have already risen first. At the same time, risky assets such as US stocks and Bitcoin are also ready to move.

Many analysts believe that it can be basically considered that the US economy has completed a soft landing, and the focus of the next step should shift from inflation to employment data.

Therefore, it is time to plan ahead and grasp the possible surge in the future. However, it should not be too aggressive to avoid falling into the trap of sideways and wide fluctuations.

This week, short-term ambush bets can be made based on several key time nodes.

On Thursday and Friday, the revised GDP value of the second quarter of the United States and the core PCE price index in July were announced one after another. You can ambush the bull spread strategy in advance.

It is recommended to ambush with a put bull spread, which has a higher winning rate.

Sell at-the-money put options, buy out-of-the-money put options, and make a put bull spread combination. As long as the spot price does not fall, the profit is maximized.

In addition, you can continue to double sell + ddh and open positions at the right time.

First, observe the data at the time node. If there is a major positive, you can sell at-the-money put + sell deep out-of-the-money call, supplemented by ddh.

Second, you can trade afterwards, wait for the surge to complete, and double sell out-of-the-money call + put.

The seller's strategy should not be greedy in the rising rhythm, otherwise it is easy to cause losses. At the same time, don't easily switch to the buyer's strategy.

After all, we haven't really cut interest rates yet, right? The right side transaction is always the most stable, let the bullet fly for a while.

For more details, please join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate together.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[8.30 hedging strategy sharing, data positive market flat, how can the cryptocurrency circle make stable profits in a volatile market]

Last night, the US economic data was positive for three consecutive times, but the market reaction was flat. The annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter was revised up from 2.8% to 3%, the number of first-time unemployment claims last week fell to 231,000, and the annualized quarter-on-quarter core PCE price index in the second quarter was slightly revised down to 2.8%. These data all show the low inflation resilience of the US economy and provide confidence for a soft landing of the economy.

The market does not seem to buy it, most likely because the data lowered expectations for a rate cut in September. It is really a tangled trading psychology. Last night, the S&P closed flat, the Dow closed up 0.59%, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.23%. The VIX index closed down 8.47%.

The cryptocurrency circle was encouraged by the positive data and once went up. Unfortunately, it could not last for one night and began to decline again in the second half of the night.

In the current wide range of fluctuations, it is difficult to do contracts and spot, while the seller option strategy is more like a fish in water.

Suggestions:

Double sell out-of-the-money call + out-of-the-money put outside one standard deviation, and close the position at any time with the price fluctuations. Close the position and sell put when it rises, and close the position and sell call when it falls, and earn bilateral premiums more steadily.

Even if the rise and fall are not corrected for a while, because it is deeply out-of-the-money, it will not rise or fall, and the overall return will still be positive at maturity.

Risk management of double selling is very important, and insurance is required. Or use ddh tools to ensure that the price can be effectively hedged after it exceeds the price range, and there will be no explosion.

The current wide range of fluctuations is more suitable for double selling or iron eagle strategies to enjoy the dual benefits brought by the passage of time value and wave reduction.

For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate together.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[8.28 hedging strategy sharing, Nvidia's financial report stimulates market sentiment differences, beware of extreme market conditions in the future]

Last night, the US stock market performed well. The Dow Jones closed up 0.02%, setting a new record high. The S&P closed up 0.16%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.16%. The Russell closed down 0.67%, and the VIX closed down 4.46%.

It is worth mentioning that Nvidia closed up 1.46%. Nvidia's financial report will be released after the US stock market on Wednesday. The AI ​​track in the currency circle generally rose, while Bitcoin and Ethereum retreated, showing that the market has different opinions.

Nvidia's influence on US technology stocks and the currency circle is very important. Whether Thursday's financial report will lead or collapse the market is still unknown.

From the perspective of volatility, the market believes that Nvidia may produce a huge fluctuation of 10%.

At the same time, the volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has risen again, showing that market concerns have intensified.

At the same time, yesterday, Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 127 million, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 3.4 million. The data is also not optimistic.

In the short term, the probability of the market continuing to fall is very high. Everyone should do a good job of tail risk management and hang up insurance.

Today's hedging strategy recommendations:

The double-sell profit is relatively obvious, and you can roll over and re-determine the price range. In the downward trend, you can leave more room for decline in the left range.

If there is no DDH tool for traders, it is recommended to buy bear put spreads as insurance.

At present, the outflow of Ethereum's ETF has weakened, and there may be a rebound. Keep a close eye on it. When volatility is low, you can ambush the bull spread or ratio spread strategy after November.

For more details, please join the Ice and Fire Island community for communication.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

[9.11 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: ETF net inflows show market confidence, and the decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum implied volatility indicates the future market trend]

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$117 million, and Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of US$7.1 million. The long-lost positive inflow seems to indicate a change in traders' mentality and a bullish outlook for the future.

Last night, the US stock market trend diverged, and it seemed that there were still differences in the election between Trump and Harris. The Dow Jones closed down 0.23%, the S&P closed up 0.45%, the Nasdaq closed up 0.84%, and the Russell closed down 0.02%. The VIX panic index closed down 1.85%.

Some analysts pointed out that Trump's dominance will put pressure on the Nasdaq and technology stocks, but Bitcoin will be good. If Harris prevails, it will be good for US stocks.

This morning, the two's TV debate is about to begin, so let's pay attention together.

The market has risen amid differences, but the implied volatility of Bitcoin has not fluctuated significantly, and the downward trend of Ethereum is still relatively obvious. The possibility of a short-term rise has increased greatly.

However, after the subsequent inflation data is released this week, it may trigger new market disturbances, and it is difficult to assert the mid-line market trend at this time.

Therefore, it is recommended to continue to wait and see. If you make a profit from double selling, you can close your position before the CPI data is released and wait for the data to be released.

If you want to ambush the direction, the probability of a decline before November is greater than the probability of an increase.

The safest way is to adopt a delta neutral strategy and short forward volatility for arbitrage.

It is also a good choice to choose the right time to sell double, wait for the data to be released, and see the changes in volatility before making a decision. Sell at highs.

For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate together.

#张无忌wepoets #冰火岛