[9.3 hedging strategy sharing, September and October are golden or will the market fall every September? Where should cryptocurrency traders go? ]
People are prone to illness at the turn of summer and autumn. The cryptocurrency market and even the entire market are also sick and weak.
There is a saying in China that September is golden and October is silver, but the sharp rise last week and the retreat this week still show that market confidence is fragile and they are all short-term traders.
In the United States, there is a saying that every September will fall, and it is believed that most US stocks will face a fall in September due to financial reports and investment strategy adjustments.
The cryptocurrency market closely follows US technology stocks and can even be regarded as the crypto branch of Nasdaq. If you want crypto to rise, interest rate cuts and water releases are the only way.
This Friday, the US non-agricultural data will be released. This will be the most important data release before the interest rate meeting, and the market is likely to be greatly disturbed.
From the perspective of volatility, the implied volatility of Bitcoin has reached a historical low, and the probability of rising waves has greatly increased. The implied volatility of Ethereum is still in the median, and the probability of continuing to go sideways is relatively high.
There is no fixed relationship between volatility and price fluctuations. In theory, both a big rise and a big fall will lead to higher volatility. However, in practice, a sharp rise in volatility in the currency circle is often accompanied by a sharp drop in prices, and a sharp rise in prices is often accompanied by a drop in volatility. This is inconsistent with the relationship between volatility and price in the stock market.
Therefore, if Bitcoin continues to rise, we have reason to believe that prices will continue to fall. In order to avoid tail risks, insurance for Bitcoin should be put up. It is very simple to put up insurance, just buy out-of-the-money put options.
Before Bitcoin's volatility returns to above the historical median line, there is no confidence in predicting Bitcoin's rebound or even a strong rise to a new high.
The same is true for Auntie. Its current volatility is still relatively high, proving that market traders still have some expectations for the future market. It might as well hold some forward ambushes and wait for the flowers to bloom.
This week:
Continue to hold the double sell + ddh strategy.
Warm reminder: The hedging trigger threshold of ddh cannot be too small, otherwise it will swallow up the income. Too frequent hedging will result in amazing handling fees. I have already stepped on the landmine for everyone.
For more details, welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate.
