[8.26 hedging strategy sharing, September rate cut forecast is hot, and the resonance of China-US easing is expected to drive the market up]
In the new week, market sentiment has obviously become hot. Coming out of the shadow of weak US data in August and the black swan of the Japanese yen, US stocks basically recovered their losses and set a new high at the end of the month.
Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting turned dovish, basically setting the tone for a rate cut in September, and the market forecast is 25 basis points. There is also optimism that a 50 basis point rate cut may be possible.
Gold and US bonds have already risen first. At the same time, risky assets such as US stocks and Bitcoin are also ready to move.
Many analysts believe that it can be basically considered that the US economy has completed a soft landing, and the focus of the next step should shift from inflation to employment data.
Therefore, it is time to plan ahead and grasp the possible surge in the future. However, it should not be too aggressive to avoid falling into the trap of sideways and wide fluctuations.
This week, short-term ambush bets can be made based on several key time nodes.
On Thursday and Friday, the revised GDP value of the second quarter of the United States and the core PCE price index in July were announced one after another. You can ambush the bull spread strategy in advance.
It is recommended to ambush with a put bull spread, which has a higher winning rate.
Sell at-the-money put options, buy out-of-the-money put options, and make a put bull spread combination. As long as the spot price does not fall, the profit is maximized.
In addition, you can continue to double sell + ddh and open positions at the right time.
First, observe the data at the time node. If there is a major positive, you can sell at-the-money put + sell deep out-of-the-money call, supplemented by ddh.
Second, you can trade afterwards, wait for the surge to complete, and double sell out-of-the-money call + put.
The seller's strategy should not be greedy in the rising rhythm, otherwise it is easy to cause losses. At the same time, don't easily switch to the buyer's strategy.
After all, we haven't really cut interest rates yet, right? The right side transaction is always the most stable, let the bullet fly for a while.
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