[9.5 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: US stocks are in a downturn, and the September interest rate cut will become the turning point of the market bull and bear market]
Last night, the US stock market was affected by the deteriorating economic data of US employment, showing a downturn. The S&P closed down 0.16%, the Dow closed up 0.09%, the Nasdaq closed down 0.3%, and the Russell closed down 0.19%. The VIX panic index closed up 2.9%.
The Federal Reserve Beige Book was released, showing economic slowdown, falling prices, and cooling recruitment. The two-year US Treasury yield fell by more than 10 basis points, once ending the inverted trend with the ten-year US Treasury.
All the above signs indicate that the risk of recession has increased and the expectation of interest rate hikes is urgent. Some analysts said that the US stock market will turn down around mid-September, and market traders have already traded in advance of this expectation. At the same time, he reminded that the November election season will become a risk asset liquidation event. The bearish attitude is evident.
The September interest rate meeting is not far away, and the rate cut may become a turning point for bull and bear markets. You can ambush in advance.
The currency circle rebounded yesterday and is still moving below the middle track of the Bollinger Band. From the data, the Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 37.2 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 37.5 million, and the downward trend remains.
In terms of volatility, the implied volatility of Big Pie and Auntie still maintains a relatively high level, and the volatility of the upcoming period has dropped from yesterday's high to normal. Overall, market traders are still cautious about the future market, and the implied volatility is lower than the historical volatility, showing the decline of market trading sentiment.
At present, the buyer's strategy can bet on the gamma riot, and the data on Friday may cause market disturbances. The seller's strategy continues to sell double, but it is recommended to leave more space on the put side and hang insurance.
Before the interest rate meeting, the market will repeatedly fluctuate and rub widely. Don't get lost in the band. The day when the clouds and fog are cleared and the direction is determined is not far away.
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