[9.18 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Market trading enthusiasm has rebounded, let's bet on the rising wave tonight]
Last night, the positive US retail data pushed up US stocks, and trading confidence was relatively abundant before the announcement of the interest rate cut results.
US retail sales increased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, better than the expected decline of 0.2%, and the July data was revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 1.1%. Although retail data cannot reflect the development of the pillar industries in the United States, it is still of great significance for measuring the effect of the soft landing of the economy.
Affected by this, US stocks opened higher and fell slightly at the close. The S&P closed up 0.03%, the Dow closed down 0.04%, the Nasdaq closed up 0.20%, the Russell closed up 0.74%, and the VIX panic index closed up 2.80%.
If the soft landing of the US stock market economy has been successful, will the interest rate meeting decision tonight really cut interest rates by 50 basis points? This may also be a myth that confuses the market.
There are still more than ten hours before the lid is lifted, let's look forward to it together.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have already risen, reflecting the optimistic mentality of traders. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 187 million, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 15.1 million, with high trading enthusiasm.
Today's suggestion:
When the U.S. stock market opens, you can open a double-buy strategy appropriately according to the trend of the U.S. stock market, and buy the call and put options that are about to expire at the same time, near the at-the-money level.
Look for surprises tomorrow morning. Expect volatility to surge, gamma to riot, and you can get excess returns. In terms of direction, I am more bearish. In case the result of the interest rate hike does not meet market expectations, there is a great possibility of a sharp drop.
In addition, the strategy on the 19th is to sell at high volatility. If the market still has no obvious direction on the 19th, but volatility increases, it is time for sellers to re-enter the market. See you at 8 o'clock tomorrow morning.
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