张无忌wepoets

The news from Sol is being released intensively, with clear intentions of speculation.
Pump and fun are negative, while stocks and ETFs are positive. With numerous messages intertwined, it’s difficult to discuss whether it’s good or bad, aside from increasing volatility.
From the perspective of gamma exposure, 148 still serves as a strong support level, but the negative gamma zone is shrinking, indicating a reduction in volatility momentum.
RV is higher than IV, so at this time, a double buy strategy is better than a double sell strategy, and we can expect significant volatility. Be cautious of the seller's price range being breached.
Overall open interest continues to rise, which is a very positive signal.
Options are not afraid of directional ups and downs, as long as the volatility is high enough, it’s our printing machine. Let's hope for a big wave~

This week's reason for the rise in SOL volatility is still from gamma exposure, which has already broken through the 150 resistance and entered the negative gamma zone.
Moreover, the negative gamma expiration is at the end of this month, which will continuously produce an amplifying effect.
At the same time, the open interest of SOL options is quietly recovering, nearing a new high.
Let's say the sentiment has subtly reversed.
Looking at the big volatility, knowing and acting in unison, let's seriously implement a long volatility and scalp strategy using the Byzantine Rake 1.0.

Today, Sol implemented a volatility strategy during high fluctuations.
Buy long contracts and buy long-term puts. Delta neutral. DDH automatically hedges, scalping, with a threshold of approximately $2 price fluctuation for hedging once.
Let's see the results of the position after a week, and I will report back to everyone.
The profit and loss analysis of this strategy: Profits can be made whether the market goes up or down, and profits can also be made during intense sideways fluctuations.
If it is low volatility sideways or decreasing volatility, it will incur losses. $SOL

The weekend was relatively stable, and ETH held the lower boundary of the central axis.
Can it rise next week? Let's take a look at the data.
From the change in implied volatility (iv), there has been a significant decline in the past week, but long-term iv remains relatively stable. The mindset of long-term traders is still steady. The delta 25 skew indicates an upward movement in the put side iv and weakness in the call side iv, with an overall bearish trend. However, this is still a near-term pattern, with little fluctuation in the long term.
From the gamma exposure perspective, 2600 has become a significant resistance level. Before the end of June, breaking through 2600 will not be easy.
The call options for Yi Yuanshuai also expire at the end of the month, and there will likely be a fierce competition and significant price fluctuations.
Based on the current volatility situation, it is recommended to maintain a short-term calendar strategy of selling near and buying far next week. Adjust the price range appropriately, focusing on positioning around 2600. A range of 2200 to 2800 can be considered.
If buyers want to position for a significant breakout, it would be wise to pay close attention to the key price of 2600.
Wishing everyone prosperity~

Little Black is back again.
The Israel-Palestine conflict should have been something the world is used to, no need to make a fuss.
Historical data shows that the Israel-Palestine conflict will have a short-term impact on the price trends of U.S. stocks, oil, etc., but the declines will quickly recover.
In other words, if there are no additional adverse factors, this is a good opportunity to buy the dip.
The time has come to test faith, keep it up.
From the skew data at the delta 25 position, there has been basically no change in the far month, which basically verifies the short-term nature of the event.
Gamma ex is still weak at the current price position, and there shouldn't be too strong a downward fluctuation.
Have a nice weekend, and let's regain lost ground next week.

The overnight IV of ETH options has decreased significantly, and friends who are doing near-sell and far-buy calendar spreads should have had good profits.
Can we continue to do calendars? From the data, it is feasible.
VRP remains positive, and the recent IV is still higher than the long-term.
Especially the gamma ex data shows that prices are in a comprehensive negative gamma zone, with significant price fluctuations likely oscillating widely between 2700 and 2900. It is even possible to touch 3000.
From a trader's perspective, selling high IV is a good business. After all, the long-term IV has remained flat, indicating that everyone is only looking at short-term volatility and has not fully turned bullish.
If you are more aggressive, purely shorting the recent IV and hanging a DDH insurance is also a viable option.
The overall sentiment for ETH has heated up, so try to go with the trend and avoid shorting the price. Either trade volatility or layout some bull spreads to earn premiums by following the market.
Wishing everyone prosperity~

Everyone knows I have always been optimistic about ETH and Sol
Recently, I've made quite a profit
Currently maintaining a neutral view, I suggest considering a calendar strategy
Be prepared for fluctuations
Prices won't rise all at once, after all, interest rate cuts haven't started yet
Looking at 4K ETH by the end of the year
If it can stabilize at 3000 this month, that's a victory!

Last night ETH surged, and although it did not break through the daily center, the pattern is still promising.
So, how should we respond in the upcoming market? Let's first look at the options data.
The gamma ex indicator shows that in the 2700 to 3000 range, negative gamma is gradually strengthening, which is expected to generate upward momentum.
Additionally, the change in options open interest within 24 hours is mainly in calls, with price distribution in the 2700 to 3000 range, which is very strong.
The overall OI data for ETH options is also rising, indicating bullish momentum for ETH.
From the perspective of the total amount of ETH contracts, we also see a rebound trend, seemingly on track to catch up with the previous peak.
However, it is also not wise to be overly optimistic. In terms of IV changes, the recent increase is significant, but the long-term IV remains calm, so it is not yet time to pop the champagne.
Overall, June still presents a volatile and fluctuating pattern, with a higher probability of rising in the oscillation, but it is still recommended to continuously buy long-term puts for insurance, to be steady and secure.
Wishing everyone prosperity~

After the surge of Sol, what options strategy is the safest for scientifically chasing the rise?

Violent rebound that can bet on sol😁

Take a look at today's ETH; there's a rise in volatility over the weekend, which seems to signal something. The near-term implied volatility (IV) for 1 week and 1 month has clearly increased, and those who have been selling near-term options may have already seen returns retract. The Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) has now returned to positive territory, indicating that IV is higher than historical realized volatility (RV), suggesting that the market's expectation of future volatility has significantly increased. Of course, weekend signals are not necessarily accurate and should be confirmed again after the US stock market opens on Monday. For those who have placed calendar spreads (selling near-term and buying long-term), they may actually see an increase in returns. In a discussion in the Gezhi group yesterday, the consensus was that as long as the recent positions continue to roll and selling is maintained, any rise in volatility could offset near-term losses and achieve overall portfolio profits. This is because the long-term vega increases more (there's a square root of time relationship), which can offset near-term losses. Conversely, if the near-term is already experiencing a rise in volatility while the long-term has not yet seen a significant rise, it may still be a good time to continue buying calendar spreads if one believes that future volatility will continue to rise. From the volatility cone perspective, ETH's RV is currently near historical averages, and there’s a high likelihood of a significant increase in response to a black swan event or other stimuli. According to gamma exposure data, there is strong positive gamma resistance at the 2.6K level, making it very difficult to break through in the short term. So, if there is an increase in volatility, the only path forward may be a decline. However, the negative gamma region generally has low energy, making it unrealistic to expect a sharp drop. Therefore, continuing to implement calendar spreads or double selling strategies is a more rational choice. Of course, it's essential to buy good double out-of-the-money put insurance to guard against unforeseen circumstances. Wishing everyone prosperity~

Today I closed the sell call for the pancake and kept the sell put. The interest on usde is 7%, and the premium keeps rising. It seems the bullish market atmosphere is very strong. The expectation for interest rate cuts in the U.S. has increased.

Let me share some recent insights on using usde. An annualized rate of 7 to 8 is really appealing, receiving interest airdrops daily has an extremely strong psychological massage effect. At the same time, using usde as margin to sell puts, steadily selling with an annualized return of around 10% for a weekly settlement period, the win rate is also over 80%. Combining the two, the low-risk annualized return is 15+%, which is very comfortable.

Moreover, usde is currently at a premium compared to usdt and usdc. At an appropriate time, I can convert some profits into usdt. When the market returns to a discount in the future, I can convert it back, allowing for a risk-free annualized return of 5%. Why not? 😁

Today is Friday, and the little black swan from last night made everyone uneasy.
Tonight, the non-farm payroll data will be released; will there be an even bigger swan?
From the gamma ex data, we can see that we are currently in a negative gamma dense area, and I have been emphasizing that volatility is the main theme. The implied volatility has also rebounded, so we are looking forward to some changes.
The long negative gamma columns may be intimidating, but they will basically all expire today. How the market moves next remains intriguing.
The US stock market closed lower, and the conflicts in the political arena have cast a shadow of uncertainty. It is understandable for funds to seek safety.
At this moment, whether it is possible to catch a bottom, I am not sure. However, I believe that no matter when you catch a bottom, following the principle of diversification will not be wrong. Selling puts to catch a bottom can lower costs; each time, take out 5% of your position and buy the dip each time Bitcoin breaks a support level, which is relatively safe.
Currently, it hasn't broken the level yet, so we can wait a bit longer.
In contrast, ETH has to be said to be really strong, making people take notice.
I am starting to believe in the narrative of a strong market maker this time. The time to take off is not far away!
$eth $btc

Little Black is here. Is everyone’s position still safe?

The price of BTC is consolidating, and the recent implied volatility (IV) has almost reached historical lows. We have seen many experts starting to position themselves for a long IV strategy.
Let's take a brief look at the gamma exposure data. From the current price level, we are still in a negative gamma dense area. Overall positive gamma energy is insufficient, and we should continue to see a sideways pattern in the short term.
In the last 24 hours of options trading, selling calls has been the strongest, with a strike price at 110K. It seems everyone believes that this level cannot be broken in the short term.
From the overall open interest (OI) of options, the total remains low, and there is a strong sense of market indecision.
In the current environment, preventing drawdowns is still the most important. Avoiding a black swan event that would spike IV and cause significant losses is crucial, especially for experienced players selling puts.
Buyers are advised to position some contracts + long put delta-neutral combinations, betting on an increase in IV and a price crash.
Sellers can continue to sell calls to collect premiums while adding some insurance.
Buyers are always in a long wait, running out of energy. Those who succeed are the few with extraordinary willpower.
So, if you really can't conquer your inner demons, just buy some spot assets and take it easy. Wishing everyone prosperity~ $btc

Options are truly an art of trading that requires lifelong learning. Whenever revisiting the Greek letters, there are always new discoveries and insights.
Different books provide different explanations, and the thought processes of each author are worth pondering repeatedly.
Once the knowledge from the books is remembered and applied to dynamic trading, many changes can lead to confusion, requiring independent thought to resolve.
The variations in Greek values with different expiration dates, strike prices, and strategy combinations are truly endless.
Rather than getting lost in the exploration of strategy combinations, it's better to return to the contemplation of Greek values.
The simplest path is to clearly organize the four parameters (temporarily excluding rho), which is more effective than any strategy.
Additionally, I must say, ETH has recently been impressively strong.
3K is hopeful, and 4K, keep pushing!

Tonight at eight, let's talk about perpetual futures options expiration

Why is there optimism that Bitcoin will stabilize at 100K, and then at 110K?
At the Bitcoin conference, there have been enough visions for the future, and everyone has almost had their fill. No more recharging.
Let's just look at the data.
gamma ex shows that the range from 105K to 110K is still in the negative gamma area for market makers, and the energy is stronger than that in the positive gamma, meaning the amplification effect of volatility is significant, with no price resistance in this range.
Then let's look at the most popular strike price for options, which is 110K.
The market often votes with price, which is the most authentic.
I hope we all work together to break through the barriers and stabilize at 110K.
Then, if you don't want to sell, you can hedge with a short position on a futures contract for six months later.
So beautiful~ Wishing you prosperity.

Let's take a look at the data for sol.
Recently, sol has been experiencing severe fluctuations. The market makers' gamma data is also quite extreme, almost entirely in the negative gamma zone.
According to this logic, we can expect significant volatility in the near future and should consider a strategy of double buying + ddh.
From a fundamental perspective, it seems that sol has been abandoned by capital, with the ETF approval delayed and liquidity drying up.
So, has the doge officially changed positions, or is it just tricking retail investors into selling? Haha.
I recommend holding less sol spot and using options to profit from volatility.
Of course, the trading volume of sol options is relatively small, so the impact on the spot market is limited.
The market maker's options for sol show a one-sided negative gamma, which may also be because retail investors are using options to bet on a rebound or to hedge their short contract risks.
Therefore, we can only be certain that significant volatility is approaching, yet the direction remains uncertain. Perhaps being bearish is a cognitive bias.
At least from the total contract volume perspective, the bull is still present.
Wishing everyone prosperity~

Bitcoin has pulled back a bit, and those calling the bull market at its peak are really enough.
Is the transition between bull and bear markets instantaneous? Creating anxiety is unnecessary.
Continue to look at the data and recharge your faith.
Bitcoin's gamma ex data shows the price is in a negative gamma zone, with little positive gamma energy, indicating that significant price volatility is likely in the near future.
The dense area of negative gamma is between 100K and 108K.
From the distribution of timeframes, it appears relatively average, indicating that everyone is on standby, with not much recent betting or long-term positioning.
Overall implied volatility is trending downward. It seems like something big is brewing.
The VRP during this period still favors sellers.
Yesterday we talked about the holy grail; in fact, if you are willing to pursue the holy grail and spend time waiting, the returns are not much different from those of sellers. However, the timing for buyer's holy grail is too critical, making it difficult for manual traders to operate.
Therefore, everyone naturally prefers to be sellers, using wide spreads to collect rents with high win rates. I am also an old duck as a seller.
However, if implied volatility surges, seller profits will significantly retrace. Enjoy a few months of sweet gains, then face a heavy blow.
The buyer, on the other hand, may bleed for several months, but can recover tenfold or a hundredfold in one go.
It's a matter of whether to enjoy the dopamine from daily rent collection or the endorphins from a hundredfold ambush; everyone has their own opinion.
Options are a convex tool, and that's where its charm lies. May all black swans become the steps to our wealth.
Wishing everyone prosperity~