张无忌wepoets

Happy International Workers' Day!
Some people ask, will the capital market drop during the May Day holiday?
May Day is a holiday for the proletarian workers, unrelated to capitalists.
So everything is normal on May Day, don't worry.
Let's talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum. Yesterday, U.S. economic data revealed signs of stagflation, but the cryptocurrency prices just had a minor drop and recovered again this morning. They are quite resilient.
We have reason to believe that Bitcoin has really decoupled from the U.S. stock market.
However, the profit rate for Bitcoin holdings continues to hit new highs, and there will eventually be a drop.
Set up long-term put options, and enjoy a good holiday; be careful not to get stabbed at night.
Wishing everyone prosperity~

Stagnation in the US, is a crash already on the way?

《商籁体：致以太坊》


How dare I compare you to a summer's golden chain?

You are far more boundless than the scorching sun, yet more tossed by the raging waves;

When Vitalik first forged your code sanctuary,

The world of broken chains—shadows yet devour half.

The genesis block dawned in fifteen,

Smart contracts soar in the boundless realm;

But the storm of May rips apart the creed of mere mortals,

The thunder of expansion turns gold into night’s lament.

Three verses and four lines chant the merging, sharding, and disputes—

Warrants breathe, Layer-2 fleeting like a night-blooming cereus;

Yet the scythe of time still cleaves your verdant rings,

Speculators tarnish your sacred visage thus.

Look at that river of code, eternal glory flows,

Rise from the ashes, oh Phoenix! Pierce through this darkened dome!

ps: A tribute to Ethereum in the style of Shakespeare's sonnet 18. $eth

The Ethereum 4K Journey

The youth from the humble beginnings rises, as the white whale devours the golden storm.
The Utopian boat sets sail anew, as smart contracts break the heavenly rules.
Berlin and London frequently change tracks, while zero-knowledge proofs hide the mysteries.
The fusion of achievements may consume all energy, yet one sees the decline like frost.
Parting ways, the chain exists in two, with islands rising, the ecosystem divides.
Once proud and grand in the universe, now lonely, the expense is like gold.
The cross-chain blueprint turns to bubbles, high walls merely trap the prisoner in Chu.
The smoke of war nears Prague, as structural reforms break the clouded cup.
Can one recall the aspirations of the cold scholars? A myriad of machines working as the world's mast.
A thousand sails compete as the waves surge, while one alone guards the withered branch, sighing at the slanting sun.
With a cold gaze, I watch the new king rise, yet my warm heart still forges the old chapters.
Three hundred million will eventually flow, as the layers of trees await the spring light.
Do not say the rivers and lakes are full of danger, for the fierce fire tempers true steel.
Reviving the flag awaits the new sun, to write another spring and autumn to witness the changes.

To be honest, this week's volatility expectation is bullish, but it really feels calm to the point of unease. Is a crash coming soon? Let's take a look at the data. From the IV arrangement, the downward trend is quite obvious, proving the market's dullness.
Looking at the IV box, the historical fourth quartile has all fallen below, indicating that the historical low of IV is confirmed. At this point, we can only hope for an IV rebound, and the only reason for a rebound can only be a crash.
Because there is no fundamental support for a surge. Trump has brought up tariffs again, which is a negative; the U.S. is about to issue Bitcoin options ETF funds, which is negative; there's a high probability that interest rates won't be cut in May, which is negative; employment economic data is weakening, which is negative. So, we can only expect a crash. What we're afraid of is a dull knife cutting flesh, a slow decline. If volatility is stable and prices keep going down, that would truly be the end times.
Haha, of course, what is generally said is usually not accurate; we still need to have faith. The most precious thing in the crypto world is not logic, but faith! Being bearish without shorting, using options as a safety net. It's the right time to open a call ratio. Small gains when it falls, big gains when it rises, losing money only during a surge. Perfect~ $btc

Community memes have been reported and taken down. Respect the platform rules.
The airdrop list will be posted on Twitter.
This week's volatility opportunities are significant.
Wishing everyone prosperity!

ETH is a frustrating old goblin. Why has it been fluctuating around 1800? I mentioned a few days ago that it was due to positive gamma accumulation.
But today I found that the positive gamma has dissipated. This means that a direction is about to emerge. Let's take another look at vrp, can we still sell? Currently, it is still positive, but both iv and rv are declining, and it might just be holding back something big.
The only way to hold back something big is through a sharp drop. So what am I looking forward to? Only a sharp drop. Make sure to have insurance, we are believers in Ethereum, we can't make money by shorting our own beliefs. Right?

The market opened lower on Monday; what does it signify? Let's take a look at the data for Bitcoin (BTC) to ease our minds.

From the VRP perspective, although the IV has decreased, the VRP remains positive. Looking at the historical data, the positive area still dominates. Therefore, sellers remain in control.

From the gamma ex analysis, Bitcoin has fully entered the negative gamma territory, with no positive gamma support or resistance nearby, indicating that it will fluctuate widely within the negative gamma range.

Thus, considering the probability that there will likely be no interest rate cuts in May, this May is expected to be a turbulent downward trend with fluctuations. Let's observe as we go; the data won’t lie. Sellers should first sell the weekly settlement options. As for buyers, they will have to rely on luck to guess the direction.

Airdrop has been distributed, please check. The list has been announced on Twitter.

The Ice and Fire Island meme can now be traded on Uniswap on the base chain. Haha
Just enter the contract address to find it. Perfect!
Community meme, proof of identity for Ice and Fire Island friends. Welcome to play together, airdrop for everyone.

Ice and Fire Island community also has its own meme coin, happy. Token name: Ice and Fire Island

Base chain contract address: 0x3be3135d62019507b3fbe644213a2645e88338f9

If you want it, please leave your base chain address, and we will draw 10 fans to give you 10,000 each.

You can trade it on Zora.

The weekend Ethereum is a bit stiff, leaving me at a loss, fearing it could be a bait for bulls or a dead cat bounce. Let's quickly check the data. Not bad! Especially the gamma ex data shows a significant change compared to two days ago.

In particular, the negative gamma area is rapidly expanding, with a sudden increase at the 2K price level. This suggests that everyone is optimistic about 2K and actively going long, right? However, there are also quite a few people buying puts fearing a rise in volatility on the put side. Will the price continue to rise amidst this hesitation? Looking forward to it. An options expert once said, the more it rises, the more puts you buy, and the more it falls, the more calls you buy. Excluding the opening of a one-sided major trend, this statement is very true.

Monthly profits lead to losses, the cycle of heaven's way. If you hold a lot of spot assets, after a big rise to recover, you can buy some puts for protection. If you hold a lot of cash and want to safely chase the rise, selling a little put as a regular investment and to take delivery is also not bad. Before the interest rate cut expectations are realized, it is not advisable to go all in. That's all, have a great weekend! Go Ethereum, rise strong!

The volatility risk premium (VRP) for different time periods has different positive and negative values. So which one should we focus on usually? Personally, I tend to refer to the 7-day one. Volatility changes very quickly, and looking at a longer time frame only reveals trends, which is not very instructive for daily trading. If you often engage in short-term double selling to short volatility, observing the 7-day VRP is more sensitive. Lastly, it's important to note that this is a lagging indicator and has no predictive power. It's just a way to check the status and does not guarantee profits. The statistical trend and how to convert it into actual trading profits depend on individual subjective judgment. Good luck!

(No images are provided, as it may imply promoting third-party channels. There are many similar images available online; everyone can check for themselves.)

It's the weekend again, and the VRP is positive. At this time, selling options is relatively cost-effective. You can lightly sell some out-of-the-money straddles. There's another advantage to selling out-of-the-money options: if the price drops significantly, you can exercise and buy more, and if it rises, you can exercise and sell. Selling deep out-of-the-money options with a weekly settlement for the long term yields an annualized return of about 45%, which is still a very profitable business. $BTC

The gamma ex of ETH and SOL shows positive gamma resistance above.

The resistance for ETH is clearly at 1800; once broken, it will be smooth sailing.

The resistance for SOL is at 160, but there is significant positive gamma resistance from 150 to 160 and above, making it difficult to push higher in the short term. Therefore, SOL is more suitable for building a selling strategy.

Now, let's talk about the stablecoin PAXG. Its gamma ex shows a typical narrow oscillation pattern. The selling strategy may be counterproductive due to low volatility, while the buying strategy has little profit space due to the narrow positive gamma surrounding it. Therefore, gold options are relatively unappealing in the short term and are more suitable for long-term spot trading. After all, in the long run, gold is expected to reach 4000.

Trump coin is causing trouble again!

Establishing the Ice and Fire Island Options community, we have always adhered to the concept of free sharing and mutual communication. Through the ups and downs of the market, I have made many friends and am very grateful.

Ethereum has halved its price since last year. Many people have lost confidence.

Yesterday's surge allowed the last e-sentries to regain their faith.

I am a firm believer in Ethereum. The options strategies I have been sharing have always been primarily coin-based.

Although Ethereum has disappointed its believers in the short term, do not be impatient; wait quietly for the flowers to bloom.

Bitcoin has also gone through sixteen years of storms to reach today.

Ethereum's sixteenth birthday will amaze everyone.

Bitcoin's price has skyrocketed overnight, the situation is promising. However, the gamma exposure level hasn't changed much, so don't blindly chase the rise. Bitcoin's 100K resistance still exists, but the strength has weakened. ETH's 1800 resistance remains significant. Sol's situation is the best, with no obvious resistance above 150/160. Recently, a wide range of fluctuations is still the most likely trend. Those hoping for profits can take some off the table to avoid retracement.

The trend of decoupling between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market.
Then, once the U.S. stock market crashes, can Bitcoin remain unscathed?
Even after the U.S. debt crisis drains liquidity, can Bitcoin maintain its status as digital gold?
Everything is an unknown.
To guard against black swans and even gray rhinos, long-term put options should be set up.
At the same time, before key points, it might be worth taking a dual buy to seize the opportunity for a bicycle to turn into a motorcycle.