[9.11 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: ETF net inflows show market confidence, and the decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum implied volatility indicates the future market trend]
Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$117 million, and Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of US$7.1 million. The long-lost positive inflow seems to indicate a change in traders' mentality and a bullish outlook for the future.
Last night, the US stock market trend diverged, and it seemed that there were still differences in the election between Trump and Harris. The Dow Jones closed down 0.23%, the S&P closed up 0.45%, the Nasdaq closed up 0.84%, and the Russell closed down 0.02%. The VIX panic index closed down 1.85%.
Some analysts pointed out that Trump's dominance will put pressure on the Nasdaq and technology stocks, but Bitcoin will be good. If Harris prevails, it will be good for US stocks.
This morning, the two's TV debate is about to begin, so let's pay attention together.
The market has risen amid differences, but the implied volatility of Bitcoin has not fluctuated significantly, and the downward trend of Ethereum is still relatively obvious. The possibility of a short-term rise has increased greatly.
However, after the subsequent inflation data is released this week, it may trigger new market disturbances, and it is difficult to assert the mid-line market trend at this time.
Therefore, it is recommended to continue to wait and see. If you make a profit from double selling, you can close your position before the CPI data is released and wait for the data to be released.
If you want to ambush the direction, the probability of a decline before November is greater than the probability of an increase.
The safest way is to adopt a delta neutral strategy and short forward volatility for arbitrage.
It is also a good choice to choose the right time to sell double, wait for the data to be released, and see the changes in volatility before making a decision. Sell at highs.
For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate together.
