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Today's thoughts on the cryptocurrency market. To be honest, this recent wave of market activity is quite paradoxical. The US dollar index has broken its range since last Friday, and logically, risk assets should be rising. However, the market's reaction has been tepid. Why? Because this time the dollar's weakness is not due to expectations of monetary easing, but rather because people are starting to worry that the economy is really about to decline, which is not a positive signal but rather a negative one.

Furthermore, Trump's recent erratic actions have added fuel to this already chaotic situation. He first stirred market anxiety with tariffs, and then there were rumors of wanting to dismiss Powell, seemingly determined to prevent the Federal Reserve and the capital market from finding any peace for even a second. Nick from The Wall Street Journal, often referred to as the “voice of the Federal Reserve,” published two articles in one day, saying he is serious about his intentions, and even White House advisors have warned him not to act recklessly. Indeed, even if it’s just speculation, it’s enough to stir market sentiment.

Some say that having a more 'compliant' chairman could lead to rapid interest rate cuts, which would be beneficial for the market. Don’t think too much of it. Kevin Warsh, whom Trump has pointed to, is a bona fide hawk and may not cooperate with easing measures upon taking office. Furthermore, the president's desire to dismiss Powell is not legally straightforward; it would challenge an old ruling from 1935. If it were to be overturned, the independence of the Federal Reserve would be rendered meaningless, and the US financial system would essentially become a tool of the president.

However, the market is currently betting on the “Trump put” — no matter how erratic he is, if there’s a problem in the US Treasury market, he will still have to step in. Currently, there is weak demand for Treasury auctions, and interest rates are soaring, with both pension funds and hedge funds selling off, approaching a critical point.

From a technical perspective on BTC, it has been oscillating in the 85,000 range for almost a week, with significant liquidity around 83,000, and a wave of grabbing could occur at any moment. Yesterday, a breakout from a converging triangle occurred, along with a pin bar, clearly indicating short-term profit-taking. It may first dip below 83,000 to attract bullish order blocks before rebounding. The target could be around 80, but there will be significant volatility in between, so operations need to be very cautious.

Just a reminder, the US market is closed for three days, and during low liquidity phases, it is easier to manipulate. Now is not the time to bet on direction but rather a stage of timing and patience. The battle between Trump and Powell has just begun, and the real explosive points may still lie with the Supreme Court.

Personally, I am currently leaning slightly bearish, in a phase of being bearish without shorting. You might want to observe a bit longer!

Thinking about today's market, the current market is like a "calm period" after a storm. Although the limelight has temporarily subsided, the market turmoil has not completely disappeared. Actions such as Xi's visit to Southeast Asia and Trump's planned visit to Saudi Arabia all suggest that China and the United States are preparing for the next stage of the game. Trump's tariff policy this time is also step by step, from exempting electronic products to internal disagreements. Obviously, he himself is in a dilemma. On the surface, tough, in fact, it is more to maintain political support and face.

What the market is most worried about is the continued weakening of the US dollar system. If US debt loses its purchasing power, the consequences will be very serious. The recent surge in US debt interest rates has forced Trump to soften his position, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to show a dovish attitude. The key is that although US stocks are important, US debt is the core of the consensus of all parties in the United States.

From the data, the US Buffett Index has exceeded 180%, far exceeding the historical high, which indicates that the future returns of US stocks will become negligible. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in June, it may trigger debt defaults and even trigger a financial crisis.

Next, the situation of "bear cycle + shock game" is likely to happen. U.S. debt is like a time bomb, and the market will continue to be anxious about it, while Trump's policy is like a detonator, which may aggravate the situation at any time. Although the general trend is bearish, it is still possible to capture rebound opportunities through band operations. Therefore, the overall strategy is bearish, but it will not suppress the bears, and it is also necessary to be prepared to operate against the trend when the rebound occurs.

As for Bitcoin, it actually has the same logic as the U.S. stock market, which is driven by funds. Now the Federal Reserve dare not release water easily because the entire market has not found the "real depression". Rash release of water will only push up inflation. Therefore, although liquidity is tight in the short term, in the long run, as long as the Federal Reserve and Wall Street reach an agreement, the logic of Bitcoin funds is still there, and the bull market trend is still there.

Back to the market, let's talk about BTC's ASR-VC indicator: the current price is still fluctuating above the middle track of the 4-hour channel, with neither liquidation and upward surge nor a large break, and the structure is still healthy. In the short term, it is still in a strong shock pattern. It is actually too early to short now. At least we have to wait until the price touches the historical supply area like 88,000, and it will be convincing if it is accompanied by a failed K-line. Now is still the observation period.$BTC

Weekend Market Observation | Trump's Tariffs, Capital Movements, Can We Still Enter the Market?

The market this weekend looks a bit strange. On one side, there are Trump's tariff maneuvers coming one after another, and on the other side, market liquidity is shrinking, and trading volume is also declining.

First, let's talk about the key data:
BTC continues to hover around $85,000, but both trading and turnover have clearly decreased, and the rebound strength is entirely supported by short-term funds.

ETH continues to be weak, altcoin rebounds vary, but the overall market capitalization has still slightly increased following BTC.

The movement of stablecoins is crucial:
USDT's total market capitalization is stable, but the funds in the market have decreased by 800 million, indicating that some capital is choosing to wait and see.

On the USDC side, there was a net outflow of 900 million dollars in the US region this week. Although the outflow pace is not fast, the direction is clear: funds in the US region are withdrawing.

So how do we view the current market?
The market doesn't want to rise right now; it just doesn't dare to rise. Everyone is waiting for news—whether it's waiting for data or seeing what Trump will do next. Trump even backed off a bit this Wednesday, suddenly pausing some tariffs and even easing restrictions on products like phones and computers. This operation looks like “first he made harsh statements, realized the market couldn't take it, and quickly hit the brakes.”

Many people say he is “seeking benefits for partners and engaging in insider trading,” but I personally don't buy that. With the size of the US stock market, it wouldn't easily be manipulated by a few fluctuations. It's more likely that he is being pressured by the bond market and has no options left.

You can see it from the bond market:
The 10-year US Treasury yield has soared, the Federal Reserve is still not moving, and Trump can only step in personally to stabilize expectations.

What’s actually most challenging now is not the tariffs, but the economy itself—if the economy is doing well, the Federal Reserve won’t rush to cut interest rates, which is bearish for BTC; if the economy is doing poorly, then recession risks are high, which is also bearish for BTC...

How should we look ahead?
1. Bitcoin's short-term volatility pattern remains unchanged, with 83K being a phase support, but the dense chip area above is between 93K-98K. Without new funds coming in, it’s hard to break through.

2. Market sentiment is wavering; everyone is betting on whether Trump's tariffs will ultimately be negotiation chips or real sanctions.

3. The key moment is at the end of the month with the GDP data. If it really is -2.8%, then the Federal Reserve will have a headache, and only then might the market truly find a new direction.

As for my own operations, I am now preparing to clear some bottom-fishing chips and test short with my ant position!

Today even the President of the United States couldn't help but sell part of #ETH , just saw little V at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, does anyone have any questions to ask?

Note: Now it can only be called little V, only when the new high is reached can it be called V God
#以太坊

Today, the global market is in a devastating state, and the A-shares have hit the largest drop since the 2008 adjustment.

The core reason for the plunge in A-shares:
Vietnam has capitulated, and South Korea and Japan are leaning towards the United States—Asia's 'trade alliance' has collapsed, making China the only country standing firm.

The reason for the global plunge:
Due to the special tariff events causing recession expectations to exceed 65%—risk aversion sentiment is rising, and market confidence is collapsing.

U.S. bond auctions and inflation data are key; if bond demand is low, the dollar may weaken, further impacting the market.

Gold fell by 0.3%, indicating that the market may be selling gold to replenish margins, which could evolve into a larger liquidity crunch.

So can we bottom fish? No!

Referring back to our tweet from yesterday, we detailed the liquidity structure, which will be one of the short-term directions.

If BTC goes down, currently between 75,000 and 72,000, even 70,000 is a vacuum zone where there is no more long liquidity accumulation, but upwards to 85,000 is a very dense area of short liquidity. Combined with the current global slump and further release of panic sentiment, some shorts are taking profits, and longs may rebound to bottom fish. There is a high probability of a small rebound, but the strength of the rebound will not be very strong, based around 82,000.

So at that time, we can check whether the fundamentals and sentiment have recovered before engaging in bottom fishing activities; for now, it's still time to hold onto bullets.

Today's market thoughts: Many bloggers say that BTC is currently trying to lure buyers? Is the real lure happening during the sideways movement at 83,000? The real lure happens when it breaks the downward trend and rises to entice people. During a strong upward movement, it generates optimistic emotions filled with imagination about the future. When the bulls are ready to act with their limited resources, it strikes hard, leading to despair once again! This is called luring buyers, and this is what professionalism looks like. 👍

Whether it's the macro situation or the data aspect, a large number of professional bloggers don't know how to choose a direction, and we feel confused too. So let's look at it from the most original perspective of the main force.

Currently, we are still in the period of digesting tariff sentiments. Due to the tightening liquidity in the crypto market, the main force is accumulating liquidity, waiting to harvest up and down, rather than pulling you out of a bear market or reversing into a bull market in the short term.

From a liquidity perspective, we can see the liquidity dense areas in the chart below, which are the bearish liquidation at 85,000 and bullish liquidation at 81,000. This is the liquidity that will definitely be targeted in the short term.

Now, let's broaden our thinking. Does the current macro fundamental support a slight downward movement or a slight upward movement? The impact of tariff policies is still continuing to ferment, the U.S. stock market has not stopped falling and stabilized, and the main sentiment is still bearish. However, if it goes up directly from here to 85,000 or even 86,000, would you go long? I don't think you would; instead, it would increase the short sellers' counterattack and profit-taking. So, the correct targeting of liquidity by the main force must be a downward break below 81,000 to hunt the bullish liquidity, shaking the confidence of the bulls so that you dare not bottom fish, and finally, it will surge directly to 85,000 to complete all short-term liquidity plundering.

Therefore, based on the above thoughts, we are more inclined to gradually build short positions in the short term, with a stop loss below 88,000 and taking profits in batches below 81,000.

In the long term, will you care about the volatility of liquidity plundering whether it goes up or down? Reject all noise! $BTC

Many people say that with the global decline being this severe, why hasn’t $BTC dropped?

According to the latest tweet from Twitter user M @Murphychen888, the average holding amount in the range of 81,000 to 83,000 is the second largest area of the entire cycle, only behind the 35,000 USD range.

Super whales are buying in here, ignoring risks, while weak hands haven’t made a profit and are unwilling to sell, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand, ignoring the larger trend!

Now, there are two external opinions:
1. It has already dropped too much in advance, with over 90% of altcoins declining, and it can't drop any further. The political risks of tariffs are irrelevant to cryptocurrencies, so a small amount of external funds is entering Bitcoin for hedging, supporting the downward trend.

2. Comparing with the 312 trend, Bitcoin only dropped after a few days following the stock market circuit breaker. It’s also a case of cryptocurrencies being slow to react, with extreme attempts to lure more buyers, leading everyone to unanimously recognize its hedging properties, resulting in widespread losses!
#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税

The unemployment rate data released tonight is bearish. Shortly before Powell's speech, Trump called out, saying now is the best time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, effectively pressuring Powell politically.

However, in Powell's recent speech, he ignored Trump, emphasizing weak economic growth, rising inflation, and maintaining the decision for two interest rate cuts this year.

U.S. stocks plummeted again!

Combined with the impact of tariffs, there is currently no fundamental support for BTC to reverse!
#鲍威尔发言 #美国加征关税

China completely does not care about the United States this time, directly going head-to-head, the decoupling of the Chinese and American economies is accelerating, and this 'trade cold war' is becoming more profound, both sides may head towards a more thorough 'de-dollarization' and localization of supply chains.

The crypto market fears tightening of the dollar the most, as this will cause capital to flow back to U.S. Treasury bonds, worsening liquidity, and those altcoins will be sold off.

Increased tariffs = rising inflation pressure = the Federal Reserve dares not cut interest rates = bearish for BTC
Or
Increased tariffs = greater recession expectations = bearish for BTC

Basically judging that we have entered a spiral downward trend 😮‍💨, stay safe everyone!
#美国加征关税 #中美贸易 $BTC

Today's Interpretation | The Tariff Iron Fist Falls, the Cryptocurrency Market Plummets, Will It Fall Further?

Early yesterday morning, the United States announced a new round of tariff policies, and the cryptocurrency market plummeted directly, with BTC dropping over 3% at one point, while altcoins fared even worse, with a general decline exceeding 10%. After this drop, will it fall further? Has the sentiment been fully released?

Let's first look at the reactions from various countries:
European Union: 'Preparing' retaliatory measures
China: Urging the US to 'immediately' cancel tariffs, otherwise countermeasures will be taken
Germany: Calling on the EU to pressure the US
Japan: Calling the tariffs 'regrettable' and seeking exemptions
Canada: Preparing countermeasures for the current tariffs
Mexico: Planning to implement broader responses on April 3
South Korea: Starting to provide emergency support to affected industries

To summarize: Everyone is unhappy, but most are still watching. In the short term, the bearish sentiment from the tariffs has mostly been released, and the market pricing is also about done. But what truly causes panic in the market is the expectation of an economic recession.

What is the market waiting for now?
Technical aspects — BTC has short-term rebound demand; today it hasn't accelerated downward, and the bears may need to cover their positions. Movements of the US stock market — If US stocks open low and continue to fall tonight, BTC is likely to drop further.

Non-Farm Payroll Data & Powell's Speech — Both data points will be released tonight, and Powell will publicly respond to the tariff issue for the first time, which may result in unexpected announcements.

How does Non-Farm Payroll data affect BTC?
Unemployment rate lower than expected → Economy good → No interest rate cuts → Bearish for BTC
Unemployment rate higher than expected → Expectations of economic recession rise → But inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve cannot easily cut rates → Still bearish for BTC

Whether the economy is strong or expectations of recession are rising, both are not friendly to BTC. The core logic for BTC to rise is the Federal Reserve's easing, but the current market environment does not support rate cuts at all.

What to do next?
If US stocks continue to fall tonight, BTC may not hold the 83,000 position.
If the Asian market rebounds first, it is likely a short-selling opportunity; selling high is the way to go.
But if BTC does not rebound and continues to decline, it is not advisable to chase the shorts, as the risks will increase.

The market is at its most interesting time; don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations. The key is still to watch the Federal Reserve and the further changes in market sentiment. In the short term, I still view it as bearish and suggest cautious operations!
#美国加征关税 #美国失业率 $BTC