News from early this morning: Trump has suspended tariffs for 90 days, leading to a long-awaited market-wide rally. The Nasdaq closed up 12.16% year-on-year, the S&P 500 closed up 9.52% year-on-year, and BTC surged to around 83,400, with an increase of 8.4%.
This time, Trump is paying attention to changes in the bond market, as US bonds are the foundation of the United States. If US bonds are sold off on a large scale (like China reducing its holdings), it could shake the dollar's hegemony, which is not something he wants to see in the short term. If the market sells off government bonds again in May, the Federal Reserve may intervene to stabilize the market and release liquidity. The US relies on debt and the privilege of the dollar to maintain its economy; this model requires continuous market confidence. Once confidence is shaken, the Federal Reserve must use monetary policy measures to fill the demand gap, forming a cycle of 'debt monetization'. Therefore, attention should be focused on US bonds in the future.
The market triggered by news, BTC is currently up, temporarily around 83,900, it may undergo some ups and downs. ETH's increase yesterday surpassed that of BTC, especially since it also broke below the 1,500 mark. There are also clear signs of a potential reversal. The short-term negative impact of tariffs has basically landed, and it won't have too much effect on the subsequent market. In the next short period, the focus should mainly be on a bullish rebound.
At the same time, Trump has indicated the need for flexibility regarding tariffs and will consider exempting some American companies. It's fair to say that this kind of change is not unfamiliar to his approach. The biggest 125% tariff on China has officially landed, and once the 90-day tariff period is negotiated with other countries, tariffs are likely to be implemented at a rate of 10%. We mentioned earlier that the greatest uncertainty in the market is Trump, constantly playing the 'wolf is coming' scenario.
Today, the Euro-Asian market may continue to rise, but the damage to tariff confidence still exists, and Trump's unpredictable factors may occur at any time. Be prepared to closely monitor market news changes and their impacts in the short term.
04-10 Thursday
