The headlines these days are still about tariffs. Although their impact on the cryptocurrency market is not significant, they have severely shaken the U.S. economy, including the U.S. stock and bond markets, with Treasury yields peaking at 5%. As the foundation of the U.S., Trump’s sudden change of heart, delaying tariffs, aims to rescue the bond market.
Today, the U.S. staged another tariff smoke screen, stating: 'There was a malfunction in the U.S. customs system.' It must be said that the announcement of these tariffs was very rushed, and the impacts following the announcement were not within Trump's expectations. Thus, the U.S. tariff drama is essentially delaying any tactical changes; the U.S. merely wants the global market to gradually accept the impending economic downturn, rather than directly shaking the lifeblood of the U.S. economy.
This can be understood as: the current market will not quickly plunge straight down. Today, BTC's highest price rebounded to 84,300, because the U.S. stock market opened low but rose high, with the closing price at 16,724.46, an increase of 2.06% year-on-year. This weekend is likely to consolidate at around the price of 82,000, making it difficult to move down unless a major negative event occurs.
As mentioned in the previous daily report, a low-level rebound is certain. Here, my advice is that when the BTC price reaches above 84,000 again, one can go short. The reason is that if BTC looks down from the position of 88,400, it belongs to a B-wave rebound, and the probability of another B-wave decline is significant, with resistance at 86,000.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is still experiencing a rebound and consolidation, with no reversal signals or clear reasons. From the last CPI data published at 2.4; it was below expectations. In the past, such news would have been considered positive, but now the market has reacted negatively. The current market cannot be judged solely by past experiences; even reference data cannot be used to seek certainty. Therefore, the market's timely reaction and macro news are the relatively accurate references for judging trend direction.
The negative impact of tariffs has passed in the short term, but remains in the long term. Under relatively controllable conditions in the U.S., Trump will still casually impose tariffs on other countries, including China, to achieve his plans. This remains unchanged. Furthermore, even if the Federal Reserve timely lowers interest rates, it may only quench immediate thirst for the market, just barely enough to drink. Therefore, a rate cut does not mean that a bull market will return, and it could possibly be the beginning of a crisis. Thus, the long-term strategy remains to short at high positions, which is relatively safe, while moderately going long during short-term pullbacks to lows. Here, 'moderate' refers to the fact that there is still risk in going long.
Saturday, April 12
