In the short term, the market has finally taken a breath, especially after the news of "tariff exemptions" was released. Overall asset prices began to recover before U.S. trading hours, and sentiment showed significant improvement. Yesterday, I tried to short my Ant position, but I was directly stopped out, which indicates that the market's reaction was more positive than expected. The S&P futures rose by 1.4% pre-market, and the VIX fear index slid from a high of around 32, nearing the "non-panic zone." Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields for 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds slightly declined, indicating that the selling sentiment has not intensified temporarily; gold also performed steadily, with prices only dropping by 0.41%, showing a phase of reduced safe-haven demand.
However, while the market appears calm, there are still undercurrents. The most concerning thing is that the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds suddenly soared to 2.845%, reaching a new high since 2004. This point is not trivial and may indicate a structural increase in Japan's long-term funding costs, possibly stemming from "financial pressure" from the U.S. or feedback effects from market interlinkages. If Japan's long-term bond yields continue to rise, the global re-pricing of funds and risk appetite will need to be reassessed once again. Whether this potential "financial mini-earthquake" spreads will depend on the subsequent feedback from interest rates and liquidity.
Returning to the crypto market, Bitcoin dropped to the support zone of $83,000-$83,400 early this morning, holding strong, and rebounded during the day. The 1-hour candlestick looks relatively stable, and the trend is somewhat strong. The 4-hour level is still in a low-volume consolidation, and I haven't seen any clear major involvement yet. However, if it can break through the resistance level of $87,500 in the short term, there is hope for upward movement. Overall, in the environment where panic in the asset market has eased, BTC is still somewhat optimistic in the short term.
Then the most explosive news today is the 90% crash of OM, which really came without warning in a chain reaction. In summary, the communication between the project team and market makers fell apart, even suspected of internal strife, directly overturning the originally stable supply structure. The cause was an announcement from MantraChain, which led to a doubling of the supply chain of $OM. Some market makers couldn't stand it and transferred hundreds of millions of coins to OK and Binance a few days in advance as a "demonstration," but what really triggered the chain reaction was a non-BN exchange unilaterally raising position limits and liquidation lines. In a very shallow order book, this directly triggered liquidations and the cascading effect, ultimately leading to a collapse. This situation is not the responsibility of a single point, but rather a shared blame among the project, market making, and platforms.
So you see, this market is neither a bull nor a bear, but a gray area between policy games, liquidity shifts, and market expectations swaying. Don’t panic, but also don’t numb yourself; keep a close watch on interest rates and funds. How far the market can go ultimately depends on how long sentiment can hold.
Currently operating by myself: my Ant position was hit, so I will observe further to see if it can effectively hold at 85,000. If it is supported by sentiment, I still believe it won't go too high, and it is likely to test the short position again soon.