Today's Interpretation | The Tariff Iron Fist Falls, the Cryptocurrency Market Plummets, Will It Fall Further?
Early yesterday morning, the United States announced a new round of tariff policies, and the cryptocurrency market plummeted directly, with BTC dropping over 3% at one point, while altcoins fared even worse, with a general decline exceeding 10%. After this drop, will it fall further? Has the sentiment been fully released?
Let's first look at the reactions from various countries:
European Union: 'Preparing' retaliatory measures
China: Urging the US to 'immediately' cancel tariffs, otherwise countermeasures will be taken
Germany: Calling on the EU to pressure the US
Japan: Calling the tariffs 'regrettable' and seeking exemptions
Canada: Preparing countermeasures for the current tariffs
Mexico: Planning to implement broader responses on April 3
South Korea: Starting to provide emergency support to affected industries
To summarize: Everyone is unhappy, but most are still watching. In the short term, the bearish sentiment from the tariffs has mostly been released, and the market pricing is also about done. But what truly causes panic in the market is the expectation of an economic recession.
What is the market waiting for now?
Technical aspects — BTC has short-term rebound demand; today it hasn't accelerated downward, and the bears may need to cover their positions. Movements of the US stock market — If US stocks open low and continue to fall tonight, BTC is likely to drop further.
Non-Farm Payroll Data & Powell's Speech — Both data points will be released tonight, and Powell will publicly respond to the tariff issue for the first time, which may result in unexpected announcements.
How does Non-Farm Payroll data affect BTC?
Unemployment rate lower than expected → Economy good → No interest rate cuts → Bearish for BTC
Unemployment rate higher than expected → Expectations of economic recession rise → But inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve cannot easily cut rates → Still bearish for BTC
Whether the economy is strong or expectations of recession are rising, both are not friendly to BTC. The core logic for BTC to rise is the Federal Reserve's easing, but the current market environment does not support rate cuts at all.
What to do next?
If US stocks continue to fall tonight, BTC may not hold the 83,000 position.
If the Asian market rebounds first, it is likely a short-selling opportunity; selling high is the way to go.
But if BTC does not rebound and continues to decline, it is not advisable to chase the shorts, as the risks will increase.
The market is at its most interesting time; don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations. The key is still to watch the Federal Reserve and the further changes in market sentiment. In the short term, I still view it as bearish and suggest cautious operations!