Altcoin today: The entire market picture is red, but insiders are not necessarily fleeing
The initial feeling when opening the altcoin heatmap this morning is... chilling. Almost the entire memecoin, lowcap, and midcap space is in deep red â most notably GRIFFAIN losing nearly 25%.
From FWOG, MOODENG, to names familiar to traders for their "shocking spikes" like WIF, BONK, GIGA have also not escaped the deep correction. But upon closer inspection, I do not see a sense of panic â on the contrary, this could just be a natural cleansing phase.
Notably: Volume has not dropped, and even flows to the coins that are heavily in the red.
- SOL continues to lead in volume, above 10B USD â an astonishing liquidity level while the price is not green at all - PENGU, PNUT, BOME, REZ â although they have sharply decreased in price, they still maintain stable cash flow - GRASS, GRT, C98 are also in the decreasing price group but volume remains at a high average - I draw one conclusion: cash flow is not leaving altcoins, but is selectively adjusting positions. Those coins that have risen too hot are being taken profit on, while new cash flow is still circulating â not exiting the market.
My personal perspective today: - Do not panic sell just because of a red heatmap. Most of the tokens in the top volume today are those that have "waves to come" if BTC does not crash. - If you have positions from early on, this is the time to tidy up your portfolio â not adding new coins, but holding those with clear cash flow like SOL, PNUT, PENGU. - Personally, I am waiting for confirmation of recovery from trading volume rather than traditional technical signals, as this is a high-speculation market. $SOL
Whale tracker today: No longer a BTC game, is the focus shifting to ETH?
I monitored the whale order book this morning and the first thing that caught my eye was not the position of BTC â but a short ETH order worth over 10 million dollars appearing at 10:30. This is not a position of 'playing around with orders', but rather a big bet assuming ETH will not hold the price level of 2486.
The question is: why short ETH, while BTC is still holding steady? The answer may lie in the cyclical nature â ETH often lags behind BTC by 1-2 days during correction waves. And if the current technical indicators are slightly leaning towards a correction, then ETH is likely to be the "first wind" testing the lower boundary.
BTC: Long positions starting to retreat In the last hour, as many as 3 large wallets closed long BTC positions worth nearly 8.3 million USD, and 2 new short orders were opened with a total value of 7.9 million USD.
This indicates: the long side is no longer overly confident in maintaining high positions, while the short side is lightly but actively trading.
The closing price of long positions is around the 103,300â103,600 range, coinciding with the BTC resistance area for several days now. Personally, I interpret this as: this is the area where trading bots or organized teams believe that "the pullback is not strong enough to maintain positions."
Additionally, closing long positions in altcoins like DOGE, SOL, XRP, kPEPE have also appeared in droves.
This is not a sell-off, but rather like "locking in profits" before the market changes.
Specifically, kPEPE had a short close of 3.69 million USD, followed by a long open equivalent to 5.37 million USD. For me, this could be a signal indicating that memecoins still have the potential to rebound if BTC does not dump significantly. $ETH
BTC on May 17 â Price is sideways but long positions quietly endure
I observed the heatmap today and noticed something interesting: liquidity isn't evaporating, but it also isn't being pushed up as expected. A dense liquidation cluster appears around the 102,000â104,000 range, and the price hovers between two trap zones without decisively breaking out. If you're waiting for a pump or dump, it might be wise to lower short-term expectations.
At the 104,558 USD mark (2:40 PM), the system recorded liquidation leverage close to 90 million, meaning the leveraged positions are being "gradually burned" in the sideways region. This indicates that long positions are being gradually squeezed for margin, while short positions are gaining an advantage without needing to push hard.
Notable points include: - The liquidation cluster below (near 102,000) is thicker and clearer than the 106,000 and above range - The price tends to push down close to the short liquidation zones but does not break â this is often accompanied by the potential for a trap before a "shakeout"
Personal opinion:
- I do not see clear reversal signals. This is a stage where trading bots and big players often take advantage to "squeeze positions," causing small traders to panic and cut their losses. Personally: - I will not long in the middle of the liquidation cluster, as upside potential is limited - If the price closes a candle below 102,200, the probability of breaking below the liquidation zone is high â at that point, I might consider a short position down close to 100k - If there is suddenly increased volume exceeding 106,000, I will consider going long on the breakout but will take profits quickly, not holding too long $BTC
Today's economic calendar lacks "blockbuster news," but it's a day where speculative positioning data and long-term capital flows are speaking â and if we read carefully, we might see that large money could be quietly shifting.
The highlight is the TIC Net Long-Term Transactions reaching 161.8B, nearly four times the forecast. To me, this signals that institutional investors are still pouring money into American assets, especially bonds and stable financial products â and this could help the USD maintain short-term strength.
However, CFTC data shows that the speculative side is behaving quite divergently: Crude oil and gold contracts are still being heavily accumulated â reflecting a defensive sentiment amid instability. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been sold off more than expected (-122K), and Nasdaq 100 has also seen a significant decline, indicating a return of caution towards growth stocks.
In other currencies: - JPY and EUR still maintain a positive speculative position but have not broken out - GBP has seen a slight reduction in position, reflecting that investors are still not confident in a strong recovery of the UK economy.
What do I take away from today?
- If you expect the risk market to break out, you need to monitor ETF flows and US stocks closely. Currently, money is moving into safe havens. - BTC and crypto could be negatively impacted if the USD remains stable and the stock market hasn't broken out. - Personally, I maintain a watchful stance: if gold holds its momentum and the DXY continues strong, I will reduce short-term altcoin exposure.
[16/5] BTC is at the decision edge â maintain the trend or fall out of the up channel?
Looking at the daily frame, BTC is touching the upper edge of a large sideways area â where it has rejected prices at least 3 times in the past 6 months. Despite the recent strong upward momentum, there are a few signals that make me not too optimistic if I am a medium-term spot holder.
1. The price is gradually bouncing in the short-term up channel
After the recovery from the 80k area, BTC has created a steadily increasing price channel, but is currently very close to the upper edge of the horizontal resistance zone near 105k. The candles are starting to narrow in range and show signs of slight selling pressure. For me, this is a very sensitive area â either a decisive breakout or a reversal.
2. RSI is breaking the upward trend
On the RSI chart, the price line has crossed down the moving average after hitting the overbought area. This indicates that buying momentum is weakening, and it is possible that it will test the RSI 50 area again if profit-taking increases.
3. MACD shows signs of slight bearish divergence
Although the histogram is still green, the gap between MACD and Signal is narrowing. The last time this happened was just before the strong decline in early March.
My personal strategy:
1. I will not chase long positions in this area. If I already have a position from below 90k, this is the time to consider taking some profits or moving my stop-loss up closely. 2. If BTC closes below the current up channel (i.e., breaking the short-term upward trendline), I will consider a short position towards the 96kâ98k area. $BTC
[16/5] Bitcoin ETF: Not plunging sharply, but not yet a wave
I just reviewed the overall Bitcoin ETF market today, and the general feeling is that it is in a state of 'running, but not breaking out.' Volume is low, money flow is trickling in, and the price drops of the funds are quite light, mostly under 1%. The issue is not the decline â but the lack of any fund showing upward movement to create expectations for a wave.
BITO still dominates
With over 141 million USD in volume for the day and AUM near 2.76 billion USD, BITO remains the dominant Bitcoin ETF in terms of scale.
However, the price has hardly changed (-0.05%), indicating that the inflow is sufficient to maintain but not enough to push the price. This is the picture of a large fund on the defensive, not proactively leading.
Smaller funds show caution
BTF, BETH, BETE, BITS have all dropped over 1.5% but with very low volume â BTF only had 214 thousand USD in trades, BETE even less than 50 thousand USD.
This not only reflects the caution of institutional investors but also indicates that the ETF has not really established a position of smart money flow as expected.
ARKA and DEFI â names that once had hype â are now quiet
Both have recorded extremely low volumes, and the price drops are not enough to become attractive buying points.
Personal opinion:
Bitcoin ETFs at this moment are like the market holding the rhythm for the next wave. The fact that prices are not dumping is good, but the lack of any fund proactively breaking out is also a sign of 'waiting.'
I will not judge negatively, but I am also not rushing to expect a bounce. Only when funds like BITO, BTF see a sudden spike in volume along with stable prices â then it will be a real signal. $BTC
Capital is flowing out of GameFi â Technical adjustment or a signal of retreat?
Looking at today's gaming table, I wouldn't call this a "collapse", but it's clear that a short-term sell-off is taking place on a large scale. 9 out of 10 tokens are down over 5%, with AXS, GMT, NOT, SAND dropping over 8%. This is not an isolated phenomenon â it is a consensus among price, OI, and volume.
Volume has plummeted in AXS, MANA, NOT, GMT
AXS volume -47.46%, MANA -30%, NOT -25%, this is a signal indicating that the market is withdrawing orders rather than reversing positions. Short-term capital is not rotating but is standing aside.
A significant drop in OI is a more concerning point
SAND (-15.33%), AXS (-16.37%), GMT (-17.63%) have all witnessed a sharp decline in OI. This means leveraged traders are no longer eager to hold positions â and when both Spot and Futures are withdrawing, the trend can easily extend longer than expected.
Only GALA maintains an increased volume of +46.21% despite the price drop
To me, this is a form of "shaking the tree to scare the monkeys". Volume is coming in but the price remains red, indicating there is some underlying absorption. If BTC stabilizes, GALA could be the first token to recover in the gaming group.
Personal strategy:
- I am not trying to guess the bottom, especially with the highly volatile GameFi group. But I am closely monitoring 3 factors: - Funding fee turns negative but price does not drop deeply anymore - OI reverses and increases slightly - GALA holds the price range below 0.019 without breaking down
As long as the above conditions are not met, I will just stand aside to observe and preserve capital.
May 16, 2025 â Market psychology is being pulled between hope and reality
Today's economic calendar is not too noisy, but there are many details worth examining closely. The data released from the US, EU, Japan, and China revolves around three main axes: inflation, trade, and consumer sentiment.
The US import-export index is negative, reflecting that consumption and trade are slowing down. Meanwhile, the one-year inflation expectation is held at 6.5%, while the five-year expectation remains at 4.4%. Michigan consumer sentiment increased slightly (53.1 versus 52.2) but is not enough to change the overall situation.
For me, this is a confusing picture: the market is not weak enough for the Fed to pivot, but also not strong enough to maintain upward momentum. Europe: Trade balance worse than expected
The EU announced a trade balance of only 17.5B compared to the expected 24B, while the market is still waiting for statements from the ECB to gauge policy signals. In the context of the US being defensive, if the ECB maintains a dovish stance, the EUR could face short-term downward pressure. Japan and China: Stable but unremarkable
Japan's GDP meets expectations, while China remains cautious in its press conference. This is not a major catalyst, but it shows that Asia is calmer than the West.
Personal perspective: 1. I will not enter a position before 9 PM because the cluster of US data could reverse the market. 2. Prioritize waiting for BTC to react to inflation expectations: if DXY rises sharply, I will consider lightly shorting altcoins. 3. If the sentiment indicators remain positive and funding decreases slightly, I will reconsider a long position â but only if volume confirms it. $BTC
The derivatives market is on fire â Is the money fleeing or resetting positions?
Today's derivatives data reflects a state I have encountered quite often: not exactly panic, but clearly the market is undergoing a large-scale "deleveraging." Prices are declining broadly, OI is significantly negative, and volume is dropping â all three factors at once have never been a pleasant sign for altcoin holders.
ETH, SOL, SUI, DOGE are all deep in the red: ETH: -3.93% SOL: -5.34% DOGE: -7.57% SUI: -5.94%
I noticed not only the price drop but also the extremely high volume decrease. ETH volume -32.85%, SUI -27.33%, DOGE -24.52%. This indicates that new orders are not coming in, and old orders are fleeing.
OI is decreasing across most major coins: DOGE: -7.63% SOL: -6.98% LINK: -9.16% HYPE: -8.95%
Only ADA managed to maintain a slight increase in OI (+1.42%), but the price is still in the red. This is the picture of a market undergoing "deleveraging" â long positions are leaving, and there aren't many new shorts to replace them.
Funding fee remains positive:
This means that the long side still holds a high proportion, but the market does not support them. The short side has not really taken over, and there is no need to push hard because longs are withdrawing on their own.
Personal perspective:
I do not see this as a signal of a crash but rather as a margin reset process. Drops accompanied by declining OI usually create short-term technical bottoms. But to enter a trade again, I need two factors: 1. Funding decreases to near 0 or negative 2. OI shows signs of a slight turnaround, along with volume increasing again
Before those two things happen, I will mainly observe. No bottom fishing. No FOMO. As long as I survive, there is opportunity. $ETH
Memecoin in a comprehensive decline â is the speculative wave fleeing?
Observing the statistics table for top memecoins today, I no longer see the scene of âa new star every dayâ. Instead, there is a widespread red: prices down, volumes down, OI down â all pointing to one thing: the profit-taking phase is occurring simultaneously.
DOGE, PEPE, SHIB, WIF⌠all dropped over 6â11% in 24 hours.
In particular, MOODENG lost more than 25%, while PNUT decreased nearly 45% in volume, a tremendous drop. This is no longer just a shake, but a sign of massive liquidity withdrawal from the memecoin group.
The overall market OI also shrank significantly: PEPE: -8.74% SHIB: -13.40% BONK: -15.33% MOODENG: -38.75%
This indicates that both leverage traders and spot holders are closing their positions. Once OI decreases alongside falling prices, thereâs no doubt: money is exiting, not entering.
I particularly note that the funding fee is still positive for most coins, meaning that the long side still holds the majority, yet prices are plunging. This is a familiar formula for a complete âlong squeezeâ.
Personal perspective:
I am not in a hurry to catch the bottom of the memecoin group right now. This is inherently a high-speculation area, and when the FOMO sentiment is gone, buying power will dry up very quickly.
I will only return when there are at least 2 factors: 1. Bottom-fishing volume starts to increase again 2. Funding turns negative while prices no longer decline sharply For now, observing and preserving capital is more important than catching a falling knife.
Hot altcoin â OI surges, speculation is being activated
Observing the top gainers and OI% changes in the last 4 hours, I see a quite clear signal: short-term speculative money is returning, especially with small-cap altcoins. However, instead of looking at the percentage increase, I focus on the combination of price and OI to evaluate the "heat" of each name.
1. FAI â Leading short-term wave
Price up +32.86%, OI up +138.58%
This is a very strong OI increase, reflecting leveraged money flowing into FAI with the expectation of a breakout. But precisely because OI is rising too quickly, the risk of being forced to long or being shaken out is also higher. Personally, I assess FAI as a true speculative coin â if there is an entry, it should be closed quickly, not held long.
2. HOUSE, TOMI â Midcaps attracting money
HOUSE: +11.87% price, +24.31% OI
TOMI: +15.13% price (not in the top OI but stable volume)
These two names have a fairly clear price structure, OI is not too volatile â suitable for trading according to short-term trends. I particularly pay attention to HOUSE because it appears on both lists, indicating a certain interest from both traders and large capital.
3. 10000SATS â The market is watching
Price up +7.12%, OI up +23.11%
Not too outstanding but making it to both lists shows that this coin is entering the initial phase of money flow. For me, 10000SATS is suitable for monitoring breakout or breakout-fakeout at the nearest resistance area.
Personal strategy:
I do not fomo with coins that have increased more than 30%. Prioritize coins with steadily increasing OI but price has not surged strongly. If BTC maintains the trend or stabilizes sideways, altcoins may still have one last push. But if BTC adjusts, those coins with strong OI increases will be the first to see liquidity withdrawn.
[WSS-NEWS] 15/5/2025 â Data is not noisy but very noteworthy
The market today has no "blockbuster" news, but it harbors many subtle fluctuations. Particularly, the combination of PPI, unemployment, and Powell's speech â a trio that can easily flip the market in a heartbeat.
1. Unemployment claims: 229K Close to the forecast (228K), nothing surprising. But the important point is that the labor market has not weakened, meaning the Fed has no clear reason to cut interest rates. In the current context, strong labor becomes a factor that helps the USD maintain its strength and puts pressure on gold and crypto.
2. April PPI: +0.2% (previously -0.4%) PPI is an early indicator for CPI â rising production prices mean inflation could be making a comeback. The shift of PPI from negative to positive indicates that input inflation has not been controlled. This makes the expectation of the "Fed will pivot soon" more fragile.
3. Powell's speech at 19:40 This is the real focal point. The market expects him to signal a softer approach. However, with the current PPI data, it is likely that he will maintain a "soft hawkish" stance â that is, not committing to cutting interest rates soon. If so, the USD could rise, while BTC and gold might experience a technical adjustment.
How I react:
I do not enter a position before the news. I wait for a reaction 5â10 minutes after the news is released: - If the USD rises sharply and BTC is quickly sold off, I will consider shorting in the short term. - If Powell maintains a neutral stance and BTC holds its value well, I will consider going long again with a stop loss close to the news's low.
Note: This is personal analysis, not investment advice. Trading is based on data, not emotions. $BTC
What are the Whales saying? The Long money flow is winning big â but the Short side still hasnât âsurrenderedâ
As someone who specializes in observing large positions to search for imbalances in market sentiment, I always prioritize looking at the whale position table â because that is where the money flow speaks the truest. The two tables below provide me with a very clear perspective: the Long side is dominating, but the Short side is still fiercely resisting, especially in highly volatile assets like kPEPE, HYPE, and even BTC.
Perspective from the Long table: Large wallets are making huge profits in Long positions: The kPEPE long wallet is up nearly +44% PnL, earning over 21 million USD, despite having to pay nearly 1 million USD in funding fees. Positions in ETH, HYPE, FARTCOIN all have PnL above +30%, with one wallet even making nearly +60%. These wallets entered positions from the end of March to early April, showing that they have held their positions for a long time and endured high funding fees. => From my perspective, this is the action of professional sharks â willing to incur fees to hold positions, which shows great confidence in the upward trend.
Perspective from the Short table: Most Short positions are heavily in the red, typically like: The SUI short wallet is down -42.46%, XRP down -19.47%, kPEPE down -40.18%. Even the BTC short wallets with entry prices lower than 95,000â90,000 are also down around -8% to -18%. Despite the losses, these wallets are still holding their positions and receiving high funding fees â for example, the BTC short wallet received +337K USD in funding fees. => This is what makes me cautious. The short side is not being liquidated en masse, and they are still being paid, meaning they have not been forced out, and may be waiting for a price dip to reverse or to hold their positions.
Whale Flow today â The Long side is winning but still has to pay the price
As someone who always observes large money flows to determine market motives rather than just relying on technical indicators, I always monitor data from Hyperliquid Whale Tracker to read the true sentiment of the sharks. And today, the data paints quite an interesting picture: the long side is making significant profits but still does not hold absolute advantage.
1. Position balance slightly tilted towards Short: Total position: 4.11 billion USD Short slightly dominant: 2.12B (51.64%) compared to Long 1.99B (48.36%) => The market is still in a relatively balanced state, but the money flow still prioritizes defense or expects corrections, as shown by the higher short margin.
2. Margin usage: Total margin: 462.6 million USD Short margin accounts for 53.89%, higher than long margin 46.11% => The sharks short are using more margin to maintain their positions, meaning they are still willing to hold their positions or believe in a correction trend. This is a warning sign that the market may be pushed down to force longs to exit early.
3. PnL: Long is winning big Long PnL: +178.23 million USD Short PnL: -119.90 million USD Total positive PnL: 58.33 million USD => This is the point I pay the most attention to. The long side is doing very well, while the short side is clearly losing. This makes me suspect that: if the price starts to go sideways or has a slight dip, it is very easy for the long side to take profits en masse, pulling the price down in the short term.
4. Funding fee: the long side has to pay to maintain their position Long funding fee: -11.28 million USD Short funding fee: +31.64 million USD $BTC
Personal perspective on ECONOMIC EVENTS on May 14, 2025 â A slap in the face of recovery expectations
As a frequent trader based on macro data, I do not consume news just to "know", but to understand where the market is being surprised, and from there gauge the sentiment of large capital flows. Today's economic calendar has indeed presented some facts that could significantly impact the market â especially the U.S. commodity and stock markets.
1. API Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 AM â U.S.): Actual: +4.287 million barrels Forecast: -2.400 million Previous: -4.490 million => Instead of decreasing as expected, the inventory increased sharply, signaling that oil consumption demand in the U.S. is weakening or supply is excessive. This is negative news for oil prices, and I predict that WTI oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term. At the same time, this could affect energy sector stocks.
2. China's Credit Data (New Loans â 16:00): Actual: 280.0 billion CNY Forecast: 710.0 billion Previous: 3,640.0 billion => The real shock comes from China: the volume of new credit issued is lower than expectations by nearly 61% and has sharply declined compared to last month. This indicates a significant contraction in consumption, investment, and business confidence in China. To me, this is a bad signal not only for the CNY but also for the entire commodity market (such as copper, steel, oil) â as China is the world's number one consumer. $BTC
BTC Liquidation Heatmap â Who are the sharks targeting?
As a trader who follows the analysis of large money flow behavior rather than just looking at candles and indicators, I see the liquidation heatmap as a place that exposes the positions of weak traders and areas that could be targeted for stop-loss hunting. And today, the heatmap is sending a fairly clear message: the liquidation battlefield is forming at both ends â but with the focal point being the lower region.
Notable data:
The largest liquidation cluster is currently around the 102,000â102,500 range, with the peak of the cluster at 102,685.73 having liquidations totaling 163.59 million USD â a figure not to be taken lightly.
Additionally, there is a smaller cluster above around 105,500â106,000, but with lower volume.
Personal perspective:
With the large liquidation focus below the current price, I see a very high possibility that the sharks may pull the price down to sweep this area first, especially if accompanied by supporting data such as a funding reversal, overbought technical indicators, or negative CPI news from last night.
I am not rushing into a long position when I see a large liquidation cluster right below the price â because usually such clusters will be hit before the market can rise again, unless there is genuinely strong and surprising buying pressure.
Personal strategy:
I am not opening a long position just yet, even though the price has shown slight technical recovery.
I prioritize observing the price reaction around the 102,000 area; if there is a quick spike down + significant volume appearing there, then that will be the moment I consider entering a long position in a âbottom-fishing with risk managementâ manner.
If BTC is pulled down through this entire liquidation cluster without any reaction, I will stay out and wait for a lower region to find balance again.
Market Assessment Before the Release of US CPI Data (May 13, 2025)
Today, global markets will receive a series of important economic data from the US at 19:30 (Vietnam time), including: Core CPI (April): forecasted to increase by 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in the previous period Overall CPI (April): forecasted to increase by 0.3%, compared to -0.1% in the previous period Overall CPI (yearly): forecasted to remain at 2.4%, the same as the previous period
From my perspective â a trader who closely monitors macroeconomic data to seek signals in short-term fluctuations â this is an extremely sensitive announcement, especially in the context of the market still wavering between expectations of "monetary easing" and the possibility of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period.
If CPI increases as forecasted or exceeds expectations (>=0.3%):
Such a figure would reinforce the view that US inflation remains persistent, especially if core CPI rises significantly. This would push back the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts. In this context:
The USD is likely to appreciate due to expectations of maintaining higher interest rates.
Gold and Bitcoin may face downward pressure as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets becomes greater.
US stocks may adjust, particularly high-growth and technology stock groups. $BTC
đ¨ TRUMP, BINANCE, AND A $2B CRYPTO STORM: SENATORS DEMAND INVESTIGATION
A group of U.S. Democratic senators has raised red flags over what they call âdeepening financial entanglementsâ between former President Donald Trump and crypto exchange Binance.
đ Whatâs happening?
Trump and his family are reportedly tightening ties with Binance, just months after the exchange paid over $4B in penalties to U.S. regulators and saw founder CZ step down.
Lawmakers warn of conflicts of interest, citing that Trump may profit from crypto while shaping policies that affect the industry.
đ° The crypto web around Trump
Trump launched his own memecoin, generating millions in trading fees and offering top token holders a private dinner in Washington, DC.
His family-backed firm, World Liberty Financial, recently revealed a $2B investment into Binance, executed via a stablecoin linked to Trumpâs brand, from Abu Dhabi-based MGX.
đď¸ Why this matters
In a letter to the U.S. Department of Justice and Treasury, senators stated their concern over Binanceâs compliance riskânow further complicated by Trumpâs personal crypto ties.
A nonpartisan watchdog report suggests that nearly 40% of Trumpâs net worth is now tied to crypto assets.
Is this influence? Corruption? Or the future of politics and blockchain colliding?