Market Assessment Before the Release of US CPI Data (May 13, 2025)
Today, global markets will receive a series of important economic data from the US at 19:30 (Vietnam time), including:
Core CPI (April): forecasted to increase by 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in the previous period
Overall CPI (April): forecasted to increase by 0.3%, compared to -0.1% in the previous period
Overall CPI (yearly): forecasted to remain at 2.4%, the same as the previous period
From my perspective – a trader who closely monitors macroeconomic data to seek signals in short-term fluctuations – this is an extremely sensitive announcement, especially in the context of the market still wavering between expectations of "monetary easing" and the possibility of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period.
If CPI increases as forecasted or exceeds expectations (>=0.3%):
Such a figure would reinforce the view that US inflation remains persistent, especially if core CPI rises significantly. This would push back the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts. In this context:
The USD is likely to appreciate due to expectations of maintaining higher interest rates.
Gold and Bitcoin may face downward pressure as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets becomes greater.
US stocks may adjust, particularly high-growth and technology stock groups.
