Personal perspective on ECONOMIC EVENTS on May 14, 2025 – A slap in the face of recovery expectations
As a frequent trader based on macro data, I do not consume news just to "know", but to understand where the market is being surprised, and from there gauge the sentiment of large capital flows. Today's economic calendar has indeed presented some facts that could significantly impact the market – especially the U.S. commodity and stock markets.
1. API Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 AM – U.S.):
Actual: +4.287 million barrels
Forecast: -2.400 million
Previous: -4.490 million
=> Instead of decreasing as expected, the inventory increased sharply, signaling that oil consumption demand in the U.S. is weakening or supply is excessive. This is negative news for oil prices, and I predict that WTI oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term. At the same time, this could affect energy sector stocks.
2. China's Credit Data (New Loans – 16:00):
Actual: 280.0 billion CNY
Forecast: 710.0 billion
Previous: 3,640.0 billion
=> The real shock comes from China: the volume of new credit issued is lower than expectations by nearly 61% and has sharply declined compared to last month. This indicates a significant contraction in consumption, investment, and business confidence in China. To me, this is a bad signal not only for the CNY but also for the entire commodity market (such as copper, steel, oil) – as China is the world's number one consumer.
