[WSS-NEWS] 15/5/2025 – Data is not noisy but very noteworthy
The market today has no "blockbuster" news, but it harbors many subtle fluctuations. Particularly, the combination of PPI, unemployment, and Powell's speech – a trio that can easily flip the market in a heartbeat.
1. Unemployment claims: 229K
Close to the forecast (228K), nothing surprising. But the important point is that the labor market has not weakened, meaning the Fed has no clear reason to cut interest rates. In the current context, strong labor becomes a factor that helps the USD maintain its strength and puts pressure on gold and crypto.
2. April PPI: +0.2% (previously -0.4%)
PPI is an early indicator for CPI – rising production prices mean inflation could be making a comeback. The shift of PPI from negative to positive indicates that input inflation has not been controlled. This makes the expectation of the "Fed will pivot soon" more fragile.
3. Powell's speech at 19:40
This is the real focal point. The market expects him to signal a softer approach. However, with the current PPI data, it is likely that he will maintain a "soft hawkish" stance – that is, not committing to cutting interest rates soon. If so, the USD could rise, while BTC and gold might experience a technical adjustment.
How I react:
I do not enter a position before the news. I wait for a reaction 5–10 minutes after the news is released:
- If the USD rises sharply and BTC is quickly sold off, I will consider shorting in the short term.
- If Powell maintains a neutral stance and BTC holds its value well, I will consider going long again with a stop loss close to the news's low.
Note: This is personal analysis, not investment advice. Trading is based on data, not emotions.
