[16/5] BTC is at the decision edge – maintain the trend or fall out of the up channel?
Looking at the daily frame, BTC is touching the upper edge of a large sideways area – where it has rejected prices at least 3 times in the past 6 months. Despite the recent strong upward momentum, there are a few signals that make me not too optimistic if I am a medium-term spot holder.
1. The price is gradually bouncing in the short-term up channel
After the recovery from the 80k area, BTC has created a steadily increasing price channel, but is currently very close to the upper edge of the horizontal resistance zone near 105k. The candles are starting to narrow in range and show signs of slight selling pressure. For me, this is a very sensitive area – either a decisive breakout or a reversal.
2. RSI is breaking the upward trend
On the RSI chart, the price line has crossed down the moving average after hitting the overbought area. This indicates that buying momentum is weakening, and it is possible that it will test the RSI 50 area again if profit-taking increases.
3. MACD shows signs of slight bearish divergence
Although the histogram is still green, the gap between MACD and Signal is narrowing. The last time this happened was just before the strong decline in early March.
My personal strategy:
1. I will not chase long positions in this area. If I already have a position from below 90k, this is the time to consider taking some profits or moving my stop-loss up closely.
2. If BTC closes below the current up channel (i.e., breaking the short-term upward trendline), I will consider a short position towards the 96k–98k area.
