May 16, 2025 – Market psychology is being pulled between hope and reality
Today's economic calendar is not too noisy, but there are many details worth examining closely. The data released from the US, EU, Japan, and China revolves around three main axes: inflation, trade, and consumer sentiment.
US: Weak purchasing power, inflation remains persistent
The US import-export index is negative, reflecting that consumption and trade are slowing down. Meanwhile, the one-year inflation expectation is held at 6.5%, while the five-year expectation remains at 4.4%. Michigan consumer sentiment increased slightly (53.1 versus 52.2) but is not enough to change the overall situation.
For me, this is a confusing picture: the market is not weak enough for the Fed to pivot, but also not strong enough to maintain upward momentum.
Europe: Trade balance worse than expected
The EU announced a trade balance of only 17.5B compared to the expected 24B, while the market is still waiting for statements from the ECB to gauge policy signals. In the context of the US being defensive, if the ECB maintains a dovish stance, the EUR could face short-term downward pressure.
Japan and China: Stable but unremarkable
Japan's GDP meets expectations, while China remains cautious in its press conference. This is not a major catalyst, but it shows that Asia is calmer than the West.
Personal perspective:
1. I will not enter a position before 9 PM because the cluster of US data could reverse the market.
2. Prioritize waiting for BTC to react to inflation expectations: if DXY rises sharply, I will consider lightly shorting altcoins.
3. If the sentiment indicators remain positive and funding decreases slightly, I will reconsider a long position – but only if volume confirms it.
