VT小秘书

20240607 Global Stock Exchange Information

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USA
∎ The S&P 500 closed nearly flat on Thursday (6th) as investors weighed signs of further cooling in the labor market, a day ahead of the key non-farm payrolls report. Huida once crashed 6% during the session, and its closing market value failed to hold the US$3 trillion mark.
∎ The cooling of the labor market has boosted hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In the week ending June 1, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States rose to 229,000, a four-week high. Part of the reason may be due to the end of the school year in the United States, but there have been almost no layoffs. signs of increase. The highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday. Economists expect U.S. non-farm payrolls to increase by 180,000 people in May and the unemployment rate to remain stable at 3.9%.

Foreign exchange market
∎ The U.S. dollar traded sideways on Thursday as the market awaited U.S. employment data on Friday, which may help the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) set a timetable for its easing policy cycle. The euro held steady after the European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.09% to 104.16, barely reacting to news that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose to 229,000 last week.
∎ One day after the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, the Canadian dollar rose 0.11% to 1.37 Canadian dollars against the U.S. dollar. GBP/USD was almost unchanged at $1.2790. The yen rose to 155.65 yen against the dollar as investors digested comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that it would be appropriate to reduce the central bank's bond purchases as it gradually withdraws from its massive monetary stimulus.

energy market
∎ International oil prices closed higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday (6th) as concerns about the U.S. economic growth prospects subsided, but the outlook for fuel demand remains worrying during the summer driving season. At a forum in St. Petersburg on Thursday, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais said recent OPEC+ adjustments to the oil production agreement had been successful, according to Saudi Arabia's state-run Al Arabiya TV, as tourism rebounded. Optimism is that oil demand continues to be strong.
∎ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.48, or 2%, to settle at $75.55 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 1.46 US dollars or 1.9%, closing at US$79.87 per barrel.

precious metals market
∎ As U.S. employment data was weaker than expected, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this year, gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday (6th), and the market focus turned to non-farm payrolls to be released on Friday. data. A Reuters poll showed that most markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September and again this year. Meanwhile, global stock markets hit record highs and the euro rose after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years, but it also showed it would be a while before further gains could be made.
∎ Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,373.99 an ounce. Gold futures for August delivery rose 0.7% to settle at $2,393.00 an ounce.

agricultural products market
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Thursday, traders said, news of Brazil tightening industry tax credit rules prompted traders and producers to expect that U.S. soybean exports may receive a boost. CBOT July soybean contract (SN24) closed up 22-3/4 cents, settling at $12.00 per bushel.
∎ Corn futures rose for the first time in eight trading days. The July corn contract (CN24) settled 12-3/4 cents higher at $4.52 per bushel. The benchmark corn contract hit a six-and-a-half-week low in the previous session.

Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, expects: "U.S. stocks will move higher, but investors should maintain modest expectations."

20240606 Global Stock Exchange Information

USA
∎ The ADP employment data, known as "small non-agricultural employment", was far lower than expected, indicating that the labor market has cooled, U.S. bond yields have declined, and the main U.S. stock indexes collectively closed in the red on Wednesday (5th). The S&P rose more than 1.1%, the Nasdaq rose nearly 2%, both setting new record highs, and the Dow Jones closed in the red by nearly 100 points. Huida's market value rose above US$3 trillion for the first time, surpassing Apple to become the world's second most valuable company. TSMC's ADR soared 6.85%, and its price surged 4.52%, also hitting a record high.

∎ Ahead of the most important non-farm payrolls report released on Friday, a large number of U.S. employment data showed that the labor market is cooling. The U.S. ADP employment report released on Wednesday showed that private enterprise employment increased by a seasonally adjusted 152,000 people in May, hitting a three-month low and well below economists' expectations.

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Foreign exchange market
∎ The U.S. ISM services purchasing managers index rose to 53.8 in May, and the U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday (5th). The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada announced it would cut interest rates. The euro was slightly lower and the yen fell nearly 1%. Bitcoin breaks through $71,000. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.1% at 104.28 in late New York trade.

∎ The dollar rose 0.8% against the yen to 156.09 yen per dollar. Bank of Japan (BOJ/BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the central bank must remain "highly vigilant" about the impact that the yen's movements may have on the future economy. The remarks suggested that the weakening of the yen would be one of the factors affecting the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike.

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energy market
∎ International oil prices closed higher on Wednesday (5th), with prices recovering part of the losses caused by five consecutive trading days of decline. However, U.S. official data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories increased last week, limiting gains. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that the supply of finished motor gasoline (a demand indicator) fell to 8.946 million barrels per day last week from 9.148 million barrels per day the previous week. The EIA also reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week.

∎ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery rose 82 cents or 1.1%, closing at $74.07 per barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 89 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $78.41 a barrel.

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precious metals market
∎ Gold prices rose on Wednesday (5th) as the number of new U.S. private jobs in May was lower than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this year. Benchmark U.S. Treasury bond yields fell to April 5 the lowest level since Japan. Traders now see a roughly 67% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from below 50% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In terms of physical gold, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that global central bank net purchases of gold rose to 33 tons in April and were revised to a net purchase of three tons in March, suggesting that despite high prices, central bank demand for gold remains strong.

∎ Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,353.90 an ounce, recovering from the previous day's 1% loss. Gold futures for August delivery rose 1.1% to settle at $2,374.10 an ounce.

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agricultural products market
∎ Soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade hit a one-month low on Wednesday as traders focused on U.S. weather and South American crop losses. Soybean futures had a technical rebound at the beginning of the session. CBOT July soybean futures (SN24) closed down 1-3/4 cents at $11.77-1/4 a bushel. CBOT - July soybean meal (SMN24) closed up $4.40 at $359.50 per short ton. CBOT - July soybean oil (BON24) closed down 0.49 cents at 43.13 cents per pound.

∎ Corn futures fell in choppy trading as strong U.S. crop condition ratings and recent good weather in the U.S. Corn Belt supported corn prices. CBOT July corn (CN24) ended down 3-1/4 cents at $4.39-1/4 a bushel.

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Scott Rubner, managing director of Goldman Sachs' global markets department, pointed out: "A large amount of cash brought by passive stock allocation will pour into U.S. stocks in July. It is expected that the market rally can continue until early summer. In the third quarter and the second half of the year, funds will quickly Pile into stocks. Shares should benefit from strong seasonal trends and retail participation.”

20240605 Global Stock Exchange Information

USA
∎ U.S. JOLTs job vacancies fell to a nearly three-year low, but it also boosted hopes for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. The market is also waiting for the "final word" on the upcoming non-farm employment data. The main U.S. stock index closed in the red on Tuesday (4th). The Dow Jones closed 140 points lower, the S&P and Nasdaq edged up more than 0.1%, and the Fed bucked the trend and weakened 0.7%. Huida rose more than 1% and continued to set a new high.
∎ The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting next week. The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) released the Job Vacancy and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, showing that the number of job vacancies plummeted to 8.059 million in April, the lowest level since February 2021. Not only was it lower than the 8.37 million expected by economists, it was also far lower than the revised 8.355 million in March.

Foreign exchange market
∎ As investors took profits ahead of the key non-farm payrolls report, the U.S. dollar index rebounded from nearly two-month lows on Tuesday (4th), but after data showed that JOLTS job vacancies in April fell to a new low in more than three years , giving up most of the gains. In late New York trading, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, edged up 0.08% to 104.13, but fell below 104 during the session, hitting its lowest level since April 9.
∎ The euro stopped its third consecutive red streak, falling 0.2% to $1.0879. The yen rose for the second consecutive day, rising more than 0.8% to 154.84 yen per dollar, its highest level since mid-April. After hitting its highest level since mid-March, the pound subsequently reversed its gains and fell, falling 0.3% to $1.2768 at the time of writing.

energy market
∎ International oil prices fell for a fifth consecutive day on Tuesday (4th), hitting a second high, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (known as OPEC+) decided over the weekend to begin withdrawing some production cuts later this year, triggering market concerns about the prospect of oversupply. Analysts pointed out that the previous day's weak data raised concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and also intensified concerns about the demand outlook.
∎ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $73.25 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 84 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $77.52 a barrel. Brent and WTI crude oil ended lower for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, also closing at their lowest levels since early February.

precious metals market
∎ Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday (3rd) as the U.S. dollar stabilized ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for May. The report could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Gold reversed a rally the previous day on weak U.S. manufacturing data, falling despite weakness in U.S. stocks on Tuesday. Investors now await Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for more certainty on what actions the Fed may take for the rest of the year. Since gold does not yield interest, interest rate cuts can reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus increasing its investment appeal.
∎ Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,329.10 an ounce. Gold futures for August delivery fell about 0.9% to settle at $2,347.4 an ounce.

agricultural products market
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures ended lower on Tuesday, dragged down by the spillover effects of faster soybean planting in the United States and weak corn prices, but support was provided by major exporter Brazil's lower soybean harvest forecast. CBOT July soybean contract (SN24) closed down 5-1/2 cents, settling at $11.79 per bushel.
∎ Corn futures edged lower in choppy trading as traders weighed U.S. planting progress, strong corn ratings and adverse weather in Mexico. The July corn contract (CN24) settled down 1 cent at $4.42-1/2 per bushel.

Raisah Rasid, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, expects: "Labor demand in the U.S. market will slow down slightly. What does this mean for the Fed? I think all the data shows that the Fed will cut interest rates once later this year. Probably in December."

2024 0603 Global Stock Exchange Information

USA
 U.S. stocks were mixed last Friday (31st), with the S&P briefly falling below 5,200 points during the session, but 20 minutes before the close, the stock surged a thrilling 0.8%. The Dow Jones soared past 570 points, marking its best trading day of the year, while the Nasdaq closed little changed. The three major indexes closed in the black for the week, with the S&P and Nasdaq falling 0.51% and 1.1% respectively, ending five consecutive weeks of gains. Fortunately, U.S. stocks still ushered in a victory in May, with the S&P rising 4.8% month-on-month. The Dow Jones gained 2.3% on the month, while the Nasdaq gained 6.88% on the month.
 In terms of data, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in April increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, in line with economists’ expectations. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the U.S. core PCE, increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in April, in line with market expectations.

Foreign exchange market
 After the release of the key inflation report, market expectations for future interest rate cuts have increased. The U.S. dollar weakened last Friday (31st), and Bitcoin once fell to $67,000. In late New York trading, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.15% to 104.61, marking the first time since 2024 that the monthly line closed in the black.
 USD/JPY rose 0.27% to trade at 157.24 yen per dollar. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that it is important for the exchange rate to stabilize and fluctuate and reflect fundamentals. He is currently paying close attention to foreign exchange trends and is prepared to take all possible foreign exchange measures. The move prevented the yen from testing new lows but is unlikely to reverse a long-term downward trend.

energy market
∎ International oil prices closed lower last Friday (31st), causing May to record its largest monthly decline so far this year. This was because traders were worried about gasoline demand and were waiting for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (known as OPEC+) to cut production over the weekend. Make a decision. Ahead of Sunday's meeting, news reports said Saudi Arabia had summoned some OPEC+ ministers to Riyadh. The Financial Times reported that an OPEC+ spokesman said Sunday's meeting would still be held online, raising the possibility that some ministers would attend face-to-face with Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman.
 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery fell 92 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $76.99 a barrel. Brent crude futures for July delivery fell 24 cents or 0.3%, closing at $81.62 per barrel.

precious metals market
∎ Gold prices fell last Friday (31st) as investors digested a U.S. inflation report that was basically in line with expectations, although expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may still cut interest rates this year sent gold higher for the fourth consecutive month. While gold prices fell on Friday, prices were up 1.8% for the month. On the 20th of last month, gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,449.89. Although gold is usually regarded as a hedge against inflation, due to its non-interest-bearing nature, high interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken its investment appeal.
 Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.9% to settle at $2,346.4 an ounce.

agricultural products market
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, analysts said, affected by South American supply and a large number of technical trading, while market participants adjusted their positions at the end of the month. CBOT July soybean contract (SN24) closed down 4-3/4 cents, settling at $12.05 per bushel.
∎ Corn futures fell for a fourth straight session, as analysts said weakness in the wheat market put pressure on them and corn traders adjusted their positions at the end of the month. The July corn contract (CN24) settled down 2.5-1/4 cents to US$4.46-1/4 per bushel.

City Index and Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada said, "Tech stocks appear to be overdone now, indicating that a correction may be coming. After several months of sharp gains and no new bullish catalysts, a correction would not be surprising. 」

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