USA
∎ The Consumer Price Index (CPI) sent a signal of cooling of inflation. The Federal Reserve hinted that it would only cut interest rates by one point this year. U.S. bond yields fell. The main U.S. stock indexes rose on Wednesday (12th), with the S&P 500 index rising by 0.85%. to a record high, closing above 5,400 points for the first time. Apple and Microsoft also set new highs.
∎ The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision late on Wednesday, maintaining the benchmark interest rate corridor at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5%. This is the seventh consecutive regular meeting to keep interest rates stable. The dot chart released by the Federal Reserve is expected to , there will only be one rate cut before the end of this year. Ball said the latest inflation data was more favorable than earlier this year and that the central bank was making modest further progress toward its inflation target.
foreign exchange market
∎ The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday after data showed consumer prices rose less than economists expected in May, but the losses later narrowed and Federal Reserve officials' latest interest rate forecast showed only one rate cut this year. .
∎ The U.S. dollar index fell 0.5% to 104.73 in late New York trading, having fallen to 104.25 earlier. The euro rose 0.63% against the dollar to $1.0807, having earlier reached as high as $1.0852.
∎ The Bank of Japan will also hold a meeting this week. The market is generally expected to keep interest rates unchanged and consider whether to provide clearer guidance on how to reduce its huge balance sheet. The dollar fell 0.17% against the yen to 156.8 yen, having hit a one-week high of 157.40 yen on Tuesday.
energy market
∎ As the consumer price index in May was lower than expected, crude oil rose, but then official U.S. data showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, causing crude oil futures prices to fall from their intraday highs on Wednesday (12th), and finally narrowed increase. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week (6/7), gasoline inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 900,000 barrels, causing crude oil gains to narrow.
∎ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery rose 60 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $78.50 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 68 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $82.60 a barrel.
precious metals market
∎ The consumer price index was unexpectedly weaker than expected, spurring gold to rise, but inflation remains high. The Fed said it would only cut interest rates once this year, causing gold prices to give up some of their gains on Wednesday (12th). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the inflation outlook provided by the Fed is a "fairly conservative forecast" that may not match incoming data and could be revised. Ball added that the Fed was still happy to see such a CPI reading. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.6%, recovering some of the losses caused by the Fed's interest rate decision.
∎ Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,322.46 an ounce, paring a 1% gain in the session. Gold futures for August delivery rose 1.2% to settle at $2,354.8 an ounce.
agricultural products market
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell on Wednesday, traders said, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for U.S. old-crop and new-crop soybean stocks in its monthly report. CBOT July soybeans (SN24) closed down 3/4 cents at $11.77-1/4 per bushel, after the contract fell to $11.71, the lowest since May 2.
∎ Corn futures ended higher, traders said, with firm domestic spot markets supporting the front-month July contract (CN24). CBOT July corn futures (CN24) closed up 4-3/4 cents at $4.54-1/4 a bushel. The CBOT new crop December corn contract (CZ24) closed up 3-1/2 cents at $4.68-3/4 per bushel.
Little Nasdaq NAS100.
∎ Tesla (TSLA-US) rose 3.88% to $177.29 per share. JPMorgan Chase predicts that Tesla will demonstrate the robotaxi concept on August 8, perhaps launch a supporting application, and reveal more information about its expected business model, but it is not expected that it will be launched in the next few years. Generate real income.
∎ Oracle (ORCL-US) surged 13.34% to $140.38 per share. Oracle's last quarter financial report revenue was slightly lower than market expectations, but Oracle, like Apple, benefited from the cooperation agreement with OpenAI, and there will be more cloud transactions with Google. Analysts have judged that Oracle will establish new partnerships through , is expected to accelerate the growth of its cloud infrastructure business.
∎ Futures and spot prices continue to hit record highs
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 19495 today.
∎ Stop loss: 85 points
Profit stop: 185 points
DJJ30 Jr.
∎ More than half of the Dow Jones stocks ended lower. Verizon Communications (VZ-US) fell 1.61%; Boeing (BA-US) fell 1.53%; Nike (NKE-US) fell 2.28%; Salesforce (CRM-US) fell 2.15%; Home Depot (HD-US) rose 2.51% .
∎ Apple (AAPL-US) once surpassed Microsoft in market value during the session on Wednesday, and closed at a final dividend of 2.86% to US$213.07 per share. The market value reached US$3.27 trillion, setting a new record. Microsoft rose 1.94% to US$441.06 per share, also reaching a new all-time high, with a market capitalization of US$3.28 trillion, narrowly retaining the title of global market capitalization king.
∎ The path fluctuates in the short term, and the upward trend is weak
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 38555 today.
∎ Stop loss: 140 points
Profit stop: 315 points
Euro EURUSD
∎ U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said after the meeting that the interest rate forecast is "quite conservative" and that future data may not confirm this forecast and may be revised. But he was less direct on the possibility of a rate cut in September than some investors had expected.
∎ Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at ForexLive, said: “The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision-making was obviously not influenced by today’s CPI report, or they were unwilling to change their forecasts at the last minute. Many people in the market originally thought that Powell might start to set a forecast for 9 A rate cut was anticipated, but he did not give any new hints on easing policy, which drove some dollar buying.”
∎ The short-term washout of the euro intensifies
∎ Operation plan: Stop loss on short orders at 10770 on 6/12. It is recommended to go short at 10850 today.
∎ Stop loss: 25 points
Profit stop: 60 points
light crude oil
∎ Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, said the "good news" for bulls is that demand has rebounded to more than 9 million barrels per day last week, but the bad news is that gasoline inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels , reaching a 13-week high of 233.5 million barrels, an increase of 12.5 million barrels over the same period last year. Since the beginning of the summer driving season, inventory increases of at least 2 million barrels have been reported for three consecutive weeks.
∎ The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by about 100,000 barrels per day to 960,000 barrels per day. The IEA has previously reduced global oil demand growth in 2025 to a "substandard" level of about 1 million barrels per day, arguing that global oil demand growth next year will be hindered by the economic downturn and accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies.
∎ Oil prices continue to rebound from the bottom
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 77.2 in the August contract.
∎ Stop loss: 0.6 points
Profit stop: 1.4 points
Gold XAUUSD
∎ The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and expected to cut interest rates only once this year. Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, said: "The Fed neither lowered nor raised interest rates, so investors turned to less risky assets, including gold, which pushed up gold prices and attracted traders to take profits."
Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York, pointed out that Ball admitted that the FOMC has the opportunity to change its forecast after seeing today's data, and emphasized that this is positive data, which sends a clear message: do not signal a strategic shift yet. "Gold will continue to trade based on employment and inflation data."
∎ Gold price rebounds weakly
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go short at 2355 today.
∎ Stop loss: 15 points
Profit stop: 35 points
Soybean futures
∎ The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. soybean carryout stocks in 2023/24 to 350 million bushels, which is higher than the 340 million bushels estimated in May and higher than the average analyst estimate. The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for new-crop soybean carryout stocks in 2024/25 to 455 million bushels, up from 445 million bushels last month and above the average analyst estimate of 448 million bushels.
∎ CBOT July soybeans (SN24) closed down 3/4 cents at $11.77-1/4 per bushel after the contract fell to $11.71, the lowest since May 2. The intraday trend was repetitive, with the July contract occasionally rising above the flat level.
∎ Soybean short-term shock and brushing
∎ Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go short at 1187 today.
∎ Stop loss: 7 points
Profit stop: 17 points
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