USA
∎ The S&P 500 closed nearly flat on Thursday (6th) as investors weighed signs of further cooling in the labor market, a day ahead of the key non-farm payrolls report. Huida once crashed 6% during the session, and its closing market value failed to hold the US$3 trillion mark.
∎ The cooling of the labor market has boosted hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In the week ending June 1, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States rose to 229,000, a four-week high. Part of the reason may be due to the end of the school year in U.S. schools, but there have been almost no layoffs. signs of increase. The highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday. Economists expect U.S. non-farm payrolls to increase by 180,000 people in May and the unemployment rate to remain stable at 3.9%.
foreign exchange market
∎ The U.S. dollar traded sideways on Thursday as the market awaited U.S. employment data on Friday, which may help the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) set a timetable for its easing policy cycle. The euro held steady after the European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.09% to 104.16, barely reacting to the news that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 229,000 last week.
∎ One day after the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, the Canadian dollar rose 0.11% to 1.37 Canadian dollars against the U.S. dollar. GBP/USD was almost unchanged at $1.2790. The yen rose to 155.65 yen against the dollar as investors digested comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that it would be appropriate to reduce the central bank's bond purchases as it gradually withdraws from its massive monetary stimulus.
energy market
∎ International oil prices closed higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday (6th) as concerns about the U.S. economic growth prospects subsided, but the outlook for fuel demand remains worrying during the summer driving season. At a forum in St. Petersburg on Thursday, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais said recent OPEC+ adjustments to the oil production agreement had been successful, according to Saudi Arabia's state-run Al Arabiya TV, as tourism rebounded. Optimism is that oil demand continues to be strong.
∎ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.48, or 2%, to settle at $75.55 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose $1.46, or 1.9%, to settle at $79.87 a barrel.
precious metals market
∎ As U.S. employment data was weaker than expected, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this year, gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday (6th), and the market focus turned to non-farm payrolls to be released on Friday. data. A Reuters poll showed that most markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September and again this year. Meanwhile, global stock markets hit record highs and the euro rose after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years, but it also showed it would be a while before further gains could be made.
∎ Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,373.99 an ounce. Gold futures for August delivery rose 0.7% to settle at $2,393.00 an ounce.
agricultural products market
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Thursday, traders said, news of Brazil tightening industry tax credit rules prompted traders and producers to expect that U.S. soybean exports may receive a boost. CBOT July soybean contract (SN24) closed up 22-3/4 cents, settling at $12.00 per bushel.
∎ Corn futures rose for the first time in eight trading days. The July corn contract (CN24) settled 12-3/4 cents higher at $4.52 per bushel. The benchmark corn contract hit a six-and-a-half-week low in the previous session.
Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, expects: "U.S. stocks will move higher, but investors should maintain modest expectations."
Small Nasdaq 100 Index Futures
∎ AI giant NVDA (NVDA-US) fell from the previous day's historical high, with a flash crash of nearly 6% during the session, closing down 1.14% to US$1,210.45 per share. Huida will conduct a 10-for-1 stock split after the market close on Friday, June 7, and will trade at the post-split price starting on June 10.
∎ TSMC ADR (TSM-US) fell 0.52% to $162.07 per share. TSMC is considering raising the price of AI chip production services. Huida CEO Huang Jen-Hsun stressed on the 5th that TSMC's stock price is too low, agreeing with Wei Zhejia's "value theory" and supporting TSMC's wafer and CoWoS quotations.
∎ Meta (META-US) fell 0.26%; Apple (AAPL-US) fell 0.71%; Alphabet (GOOGL-US) rose 0.75%; Microsoft (MSFT-US) rose 0.12%; Amazon (AMZN-US) rose 2.05% .
∎ Futures continue to explore higher
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 18945 today. |
Stop loss: 110 points
Profit stop: 245 points
Junior Dow Jones Index Futures
∎ ∎ More than half of the Dow Jones stocks closed higher. 3M (MMM-US) fell 0.85%; Goldman Sachs (GS-US) fell 0.78%; Salesforce (CRM-US) rose 2.63%; Nike (NKE-US) rose 1.48%; P&G (PG-US) rose 1.46% .
∎ Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist at Bell Curve Trading, said: "There will be a little pause before the non-farm payrolls. This is not unusual, we had a big trading day yesterday, and today people are adjusting their positions before the non-farm payrolls data is released."
∎ The bottom of the trail rebounds, the trend is upward
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long 38770 today.
Stop loss: 170 points
Profit stop: 380 points
Euro futures
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said: "The ECB's words and actions are generally consistent with expectations, and when you adjust for a 25 basis point interest rate cut, the current swap market has not changed much." Chandler refers to It is the Eurozone/US interest rate differential that determines the forward pricing of currency pairs and affects cash. He said it was not unusual for the dollar to weaken ahead of the monthly jobs data and then rebound.
∎ Ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, investors are grappling with the impact on the Federal Reserve of several other U.S. data this week, which showed job growth slowing but services sector activity picking up. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet next week, but is not expected to cut interest rates yet.
∎ The euro range oscillates
∎ Operation plan: 6/6 10905 short order extension.
∎ Stop loss: 10927
Stop profit: 10855
Light crude oil futures
∎ The Kansas City energy team led by Alex Hodes wrote in a newsletter on Thursday that OPEC ministers "have abandoned the complex agreement announced last weekend to gradually end voluntary production cuts" and "further guidance from senior OPEC+ ministers" It helps alleviate some of the pessimism.”
∎ Sevens Report Research analysts pointed out that gasoline supply fell below the four-week average last week, indicating that demand has reached a peak in the near future.
∎ Analysts believe that the rise in oil prices on Wednesday was not due to EIA data, but because economic data eased public concerns about an economic recession, raised expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in the fall, and boosted hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
∎ Oil prices rebound from the bottom
∎ Operation plan: 6/5 73.8 short stop loss. It is recommended to go long at 74.8 today.
∎ Stop loss: 0.75 points
Profit stop: 1.65 points
gold futures
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said: "Yesterday's weak ADP employment data added to the confidence of bulls, and they believe that tomorrow's employment report may not be stronger than expected, which will be beneficial to the gold and silver markets."
David Meger, director of alternative investments and trading at High Ridge Futures, said that if the non-farm payrolls report released on Friday is stronger than expected (contrary to the ADP report), it may be difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as possible, which will put slight pressure on the gold market.
∎ Consulting firm Metals Focus believes that despite falling physical demand, gold prices are expected to hit another record high this year.
∎ Gold price breaks through the recent range and rises
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go short at 2412 today.
Stop loss: 13 points
Profit stop: 29 points
Soybean futures
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Thursday, traders said, news of Brazil tightening industry tax credit rules prompted traders and producers to expect that U.S. soybean exports may receive a boost.
∎ CBOT-July soybean contract (SN24) closed up 22-3/4 cents, settling at $12.00 per bushel.
∎ The July soybean meal contract (SMN24) closed up $3.30 at $362.80 per short ton.
∎ The July soybean oil contract (BON24) closed up 1.22 cents at 44.35 cents per pound.
∎ Soybeans rebounded strongly during the downward trend
∎ Operation suggestion: 6/5 1187 short order moving stop profit. It is recommended to go short at 1210 today.
∎ Stop loss: 7 points
Profit stop: 17 points
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