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USA
∎ The Federal Reserve hinted at one rate cut this year, but still retains the possibility of two rate cuts. U.S. stocks closed in the red on Thursday (13th). As the demand for artificial intelligence chips grows, Broadcom’s stock price soars, Apple overtakes Microsoft and becomes the market capitalization king. Hui Reach new highs. The S&P 500 edged up more than 0.2% on Thursday to close at a record high, while the Nasdaq climbed about 0.3% to set a new high for a fourth straight session.
∎ The producer price index (PPI) released in the United States on Thursday fell by 0.2% month-on-month, which was the largest decline since October 2023 and far lower than the 2.5% expected by the market. It is worth noting that former U.S. President Trump proposed a proposal to implement a "comprehensive tariff policy" on Thursday, which will eventually enable the United States to abolish the "income tax". Trump also promised to reduce the "corporate tax" rate to 20%.
foreign exchange market
∎ Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, with the overall producer price index (PPI) falling 0.2% last month after rising 0.5% month-on-month in April. Core PPI was flat month-on-month, rising 0.5% in April. The U.S. dollar index was last up 0.49% at 105.20. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index reached a four-week high of 105.46 and fell 1% following the release of CPI data on Wednesday.
∎ The yen also fell ahead of the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting on Friday, where it will consider cutting bond purchases in a crucial first step toward shrinking its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet. . The yen is particularly affected by the huge interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. The dollar was last up 0.11% against the yen at 156.89 yen.
energy market
∎ Crude oil futures prices rose slightly on Thursday (13th) as they found support in weak wholesale inflation data in the United States. Crude oil futures prices found support after May consumer price (CPI) inflation released a day earlier slowed than expected, followed by May producer price (PPI) inflation released on Friday that also slowed than expected. Analysts say this makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year.
∎ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $78.62 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $82.75 a barrel.
precious metals market
∎ U.S. producer price inflation (PPI) in May slowed down than expected, but the price of gold fell by more than 1% on Thursday (13th). Analysts attributed the drop in gold prices to profit-taking. The drop in energy costs came as U.S. PPI unexpectedly fell in May, showing inflation eased after surging in the first quarter. Despite improving inflation, the Fed kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and forecast only one rate cut in 2024 as economic growth and unemployment remain above what the Fed considers long-term sustainable levels. High interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it less attractive to investors.
∎ Spot gold fell more than 1% to $2,299.61 an ounce. Gold futures for August delivery fell 1.7% to settle at $2,315.40 an ounce.
agricultural products market
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures ended higher on Thursday, with analysts saying forecasts showed hotter weather in U.S. crop-growing areas, pushing soybean futures to rebound from six-week lows. CBOT July soybean contract (SN24) closed 12-1/4 cents higher, settling at $11.89-1/2 per bushel. The contract earlier fell to $11.71, matching Wednesday's lowest since May 2.
∎ Corn futures ended higher, analysts said, on concerns about hot weather in the U.S. Midwest. The July corn contract (CN24) rose 4-1/4 cents to settle at $4.58-1/2 per bushel, hitting a two-week high.
UBS economists extended their expectations for the first U.S. central bank rate cut to December. UBS analysts said: "The outlook for 2024 is surprising. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has actually ruled out action before the December meeting. possibility unless there is some unexpected and significant slack in the labor market.”
Little Nasdaq NAS100.
∎ AI giant Huida (NVDA-US) closed up 3.52% to US$129.61 per share, hitting another record high with a turnover of US$32.941 billion. The latest data from TechInsights shows that global data center GPU shipments will reach 3.85 million units in 2023, an increase of 44.2% from 2.67 million in 2022. Among them, Huida ranks first with a market share of 98%.
∎ Tesla (TSLA-US) rose 2.92% to $182.47 per share. U.S. electric vehicle leader Tesla held its annual shareholder meeting on Thursday, with an overwhelming majority of shareholders voting to approve his $56 billion compensation package.
∎ Adobe (ADBE-US) reported a record high revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 on Thursday, exceeding Wall Street expectations, and its stock price soared more than 14% after hours.
∎ Futures continue to impact upwards
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 19505 today.
∎ Stop loss: 85 points
Profit stop: 195 points
Little DJ30.
∎ Dow Jones stocks led the decline, led by Salesforce. Salesforce (CRM-US) fell 2.87%; Boeing (BA-US) fell 1.08%; Chevron (CVX-US) fell 0.89%; JPMorgan Chase (JPM-US) rose 1.11%; Home Depot (HD-US) rose 1.09%.
Riding on the tailwind of AI, Apple's stock price closed at a dividend of 0.55% on Thursday to US$214.24 per share. Its market capitalization surpassed Microsoft's and reached US$3.29 trillion, regaining the throne of the world's most valuable company.
∎ The path fluctuates downward in the short term
∎ Operation plan: 6/13 38555 multi-order renewal.
∎ Stop loss: 38415
Stop profit: 38870
Euro EURUSD
"Today's PPI comes on the heels of weaker-than-expected CPI, which will lead to a possible softer core PCE deflator at the end of the month," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. This market has peaked," Chandler said. "Policy differences may not have reached their maximum level." And uncertainty about the European elections may also hurt the euro-dollar exchange rate. "The political uncertainty in Europe is enough to sustain dollar buying," Chandler said.
"The market reaction was a bit overreactive after the CPI data came out. It was almost a relief that it wasn't worse. That's what triggered such a strong knee-jerk reaction," said Fiona Cincotta, market strategist at City Index. "
∎ The short-term washout of the euro intensifies
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 10703 today.
∎ Stop loss: 30 points
Profit stop: 67 points
light crude oil
Mark Arbeter, president of Arbeter Investments, said the near-term technical outlook for crude oil is also positive after WTI found support at $72.48 a barrel last Tuesday. "Crude oil rebounded from the bottom of the bearish channel, which may be a good sign as daily momentum has cycled into oversold territory." He added that WTI has fallen into technical chart support at $68 from the bottom reached in late 2023 and early 2024. to a strong support area between $76. He said the medium-term trend remained bearish, but a "false crash" did occur. WTI would likely need to break above the $79 to $80 per barrel area to confirm a new uptrend, while in the longer term it could "find bullish base between the mid-$60s and mid-$90s."
∎ The rise in oil prices encounters obstacles
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 76.8 in the August contract.
∎ Stop loss: 0.55 points
Profit stop: 1.25 points
Gold XAUUSD
∎ Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York, said: "Even bullish data this week cannot keep gold from rising, which indicates widespread profit-taking." Wong added, "China's willingness to buy gold may return to a lower level. , but it is unclear to what level it has dropped, but the current purchase price in China has not exceeded US$2,300.”
∎ High interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and reduce its attractiveness to investors. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday also pointed to slowing inflation, sending gold briefly surging as high as 1%, but gains in spot gold prices pared back to around 0.3% following hawkish comments from the Fed.
∎ Gold price rebounds weakly
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 2300 today.
∎ Stop loss: 15 points
Profit stop: 35 points
Soybean futures
∎ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures ended higher on Thursday, with analysts saying forecasts showed hotter weather in U.S. crop-growing areas, pushing soybean futures to rebound from six-week lows.
∎ CBOT-July soybean contract (SN24) closed 12-1/4 cents higher, with a settlement price of $11.89-1/2 per bushel. The contract earlier fell to $11.71, matching Wednesday's lowest since May 2.
∎ Soybean short-term shock and brushing
∎ Operation suggestion: 6/13 1187 short order extension.
∎ Stop loss: 1194
Stop profit: 1170
The content published in this publication is for reference only, and every effort has been made to be accurate and complete. However, due to changes in time and objective market factors, the relevant conditions of the industry, market or individual stocks may change. Investors must consider their own investment needs and risks.