USA
∎ ∎ As investors prepare for the Federal Reserve meeting and key inflation data in the coming week, the main U.S. stock indexes reversed their earlier losses on Monday (10th), with the S&P and Nasdaq closing in the red of over 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Both major indexes hit new highs.
∎ Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) known as the "Fed's mouthpiece", pointed out that after the release of unexpected employment data last Friday, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup successively gave up their forecasts for an interest rate cut in July. Most economists and other market observers It is currently expected that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates once or twice in September or December this year. Investors are looking forward to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decision on June 13, as well as the U.S. consumer price index for May to be released on June 12.
Foreign exchange market
The euro fell on Monday after a strong showing by the far right in Sunday’s European Parliament elections prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to announce early national elections. In addition to the uncertainty in France, there are several important events this week. On Wednesday, U.S. inflation data will be released. On the same day, the U.S. Federal Reserve will make a policy decision after a two-day meeting. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will A meeting will be held.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.09% to 105.15 in late trading. Earlier, it hit 105.39, its highest since May 14. The dollar rose 0.25% against the yen in late New York trading to 157.08 yen, its highest in a week.
Energy Market
Boosted by stronger expectations for energy demand, international oil prices surged on Monday (10th), with WTI crude oil recording its biggest one-day gain since February and closing at its highest point in more than a week. Crude oil futures on Friday posted their third straight weekly decline since OPEC+ decided on June 2 to end some voluntary production cuts later this year.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery rose $2.21, or 2.9%, to settle at $77.74 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose $2.01, or 2.5%, to settle at $81.63 a barrel.
Precious Metals Market
Last Friday, gold prices recorded their biggest one-day drop in three and a half years as China postponed its gold purchases in May and the stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report dampened market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. Then on Monday (10th), gold prices rebounded as the market waited for the latest U.S. inflation data and the Fed's decision. Gold prices fell about 3.5% on Friday, their biggest one-day drop since November 2020, as higher-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls dampened expectations of an early rate cut by the Fed while also boosting the dollar, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,309.39 an ounce. Gold futures for August delivery rose 0.09% to settle at $2,327 an ounce.
Agricultural product market
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed higher on Monday, consolidating after hitting a one-month low last week, as traders awaited the release of crop condition ratings from the U.S. Department of Agriculture later on Monday. CBOT July soybeans (SN24) closed up 9 cents, or 0.8%, at $11.88-1/4 per bushel; the new crop November contract (SX24) closed up 1 cent at $11.58-3/4.
Corn futures closed higher, consolidating after the benchmark July contract (CN24) fell to a seven-week low last week, as traders awaited the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to update its weekly U.S. crop ratings. CBOT July corn contract (CN24) closed up 3 cents at $4.51-3/4 per bushel.
“We still expect the Fed to cut rates in September,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “The positive news is that with such a strong labor market, the U.S. economy is still far from a recession.”
NASDAQ NAS100.
On the first trading day after the stock split took effect, AI giant Nvidia (NVDA-US) rose 0.75% to US$121.79 per share on Monday, marking its first red day in three trading days. The chip giant's 1-for-10 stock split will begin trading on Monday, with shares up 212% over the past year. Analysts view stock splits as a vote of confidence from management that the stock will maintain its value because the stock price typically rises.
Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) kicked off, where Apple announced its AI strategy, but failed to impress the market. Apple (AAPL-US) closed down 1.91% to $193.12 per share. Apple released the iOS 18 operating system and launched Apple Intelligence, an artificial intelligence platform powered by ChatGPT-4o for iPhone and Mac. In addition, Apple Vision Pro will be sold in more countries.
Futures fluctuate at high levels
Operation plan: Continue to hold long position of 18945 on 6/7.
Stop loss: 19000 (moving stop profit)
Stop profit: 19180
Little Dow DJ30.
More than half of the Dow Jones stocks closed higher. Home Depot (HD-US) rose 1.69%; Wal-Mart (WMT-US) rose 1.64%; Disney (DIS-US) rose 1.18%; Visa (V-US) fell 1.3%; Verizon Communications (VZ-US) fell 1.29% .
Rebound from the bottom of the trail
Operation plan: 6/7 38770 long orders take profit, today it is recommended to go long at 38725.
Stop loss: 125 points
Stop profit: 280 points
Euro EURUSD
Last Friday's U.S. jobs report showed a larger-than-expected increase in jobs and stronger-than-expected wage gains in May, which also boosted the dollar and led traders to scale back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as September. “The market was clearly caught off guard,” said Paula Comings, director of foreign exchange sales at U.S. Bank in New York. If inflation softens, “there will be some relief in the market and I think the dollar will probably weaken, but it probably won’t move out of its recent range,” Comings said. However, if the data shows high inflation, “the euro/dollar will continue to fall back toward the lower end of the range, which will have a disproportionate impact on (emerging market) currencies.”
A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday showed that the U.S. public had mixed expectations about the future path of inflation in May. The public's one-year inflation expectation is 3.2%, compared with 3.3% in April.
Euro trend is downward
Operation plan: 6/6 10905 short position stop profit, today it is recommended to short at 10795.
Stop loss: 21 points
Stop profit: 47 points
Light crude oil
Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said that the oil market was "oversold" after the news that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) would gradually increase production from October, but now traders have discovered that this is not a foregone conclusion, and if oil prices continue to be weak, the existing voluntary production cuts may be retained.
John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors, said OPEC+’s decision to phase out voluntary production cuts increases the likelihood that it will “add additional supply to the market without guaranteed demand.” But he believes the oil market may be overreacting "as OPEC+ will continue to be proactive in aligning supply and demand."
Oil price bottomed out and rebounded
Operation plan: Today it is recommended to go long at 77.15.
Stop loss: 0.65 pips
Stop profit: 1.5 pips
Gold XAUUSD
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, believes that the sell-off on Friday seemed a bit overdone, so there was bargain hunting. "There's so much data and so much happening, so there will be more volatility and more highlights this week."
Regarding the People's Bank of China (PBOC) postponing its gold purchases, Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said that the PBOC has never been a fixed buyer, and its purchases will go through different stages and then take a break for several months. As long as the PBOC does not resume purchases, gold prices may go sideways, because China's purchasing trends are the key focus of the market.
Gold price rebounded after a sharp drop
Operation plan: Today we recommend going long at 2407.
Stop loss: 15 points
Stop profit: 35 points
Soybean Futures
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed higher on Monday, consolidating after hitting a one-month low last week, as traders awaited the release of crop condition ratings from the U.S. Department of Agriculture later on Monday.
CBOT July soybeans (SN24) closed up 9 cents, or 0.8%, at $11.88-1/4 per bushel; the new crop November contract (SX24) closed up 1 cent at $11.58-3/4.
CBOT July soybean meal (SMN24) rose $7.30, or about 2%, to close at $368.00 per short ton. But soybean oil futures were lower, with the benchmark July contract (BON24) down 0.03 cents at 43.66 cents a pound.
Soybean short-term shock cleaning
Operation suggestion: Today it is recommended to short at 1198.
Stop loss: 7 points
Stop profit: 17 points
The contents published in this magazine are for reference only. We have tried our best to be correct and complete. However, due to the changes in time and market objective factors, the relevant conditions of industries, markets or individual stocks have changed. Investors must consider their investment needs and risks on their own.