USA
∎ The ADP employment data, known as "small non-agricultural employment", was far lower than expected, indicating that the labor market has cooled, U.S. bond yields have declined, and the main U.S. stock indexes collectively closed in the red on Wednesday (5th). The S&P rose more than 1.1%, the Nasdaq rose nearly 2%, both setting new record highs, and the Dow Jones closed in the red by nearly 100 points. Huida's market value rose above US$3 trillion for the first time, surpassing Apple to become the second most valuable company in the world. TSMC's ADR soared 6.85%, and its price surged 4.52%, also hitting a record high.
∎ Ahead of the most important non-farm payrolls report released on Friday, a large number of U.S. employment data showed that the labor market is cooling. The U.S. ADP employment report released on Wednesday showed that private enterprise employment increased by a seasonally adjusted 152,000 people in May, hitting a three-month low and well below economists' expectations.
foreign exchange market
∎ The U.S. ISM services purchasing managers index rose to 53.8 in May, and the U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday (5th). The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada announced it would cut interest rates. The euro was slightly lower and the yen fell nearly 1%. Bitcoin breaks through $71,000. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.1% at 104.28 in late New York trade.
∎ The dollar rose 0.8% against the yen to 156.09 yen per dollar. Bank of Japan (BOJ/BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the central bank must remain "highly vigilant" about the impact that the yen's movements may have on the future economy. The remarks suggested that the weakening of the yen will be one of the factors affecting the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike.
energy market
∎ International oil prices closed higher on Wednesday (5th), with prices recovering part of the losses caused by five consecutive trading days of decline. However, U.S. official data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories increased last week, limiting gains. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that the supply of finished motor gasoline (a demand indicator) fell to 8.946 million barrels per day last week from 9.148 million barrels per day the previous week. The EIA also reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week.
∎ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery rose 82 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $74.07 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 89 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $78.41 a barrel.
precious metals market
∎ Gold prices rose on Wednesday (5th) as the number of new U.S. private jobs in May was lower than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this year. Benchmark U.S. Treasury bond yields fell to April 5 the lowest level since Japan. Traders now see a roughly 67% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from below 50% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In terms of physical gold, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that global central bank net purchases of gold rose to 33 tons in April, and were revised to net purchases of three tons in March, suggesting that despite high prices, central bank demand for gold remains strong.
∎ Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,353.90 an ounce, recovering from the previous day's 1% loss. Gold futures for August delivery rose 1.1% to settle at $2,374.10 an ounce.
agricultural products market
∎ Soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade hit a one-month low on Wednesday as traders focused on U.S. weather and South American crop losses. Soybean futures had a technical rebound at the beginning of the session. CBOT July soybean futures (SN24) closed down 1-3/4 cents at $11.77-1/4 a bushel. CBOT - July soybean meal (SMN24) closed up $4.40 at $359.50 per short ton. CBOT - July soybean oil (BON24) closed down 0.49 cents at 43.13 cents per pound.
∎ Corn futures fell in choppy trading as strong U.S. crop condition ratings and recent good weather in the U.S. Corn Belt supported corn prices. CBOT July corn (CN24) ended down 3-1/4 cents at $4.39-1/4 a bushel.
Scott Rubner, managing director of Goldman Sachs' global markets department, pointed out: "A large amount of cash brought by passive stock allocation will pour into U.S. stocks in July. It is expected that the market rally can continue until early summer. In the third quarter and the second half of the year, funds will quickly Pile into stocks. Shares should benefit from strong seasonal trends and retail participation.”
Little Nasdaq NAS100.
∎ AI giant NVDA (NVDA-US) rose 5.16% to US$1,224.40 per share, continuing to hit a new all-time high, with a market value of US$3.01 trillion, surpassing Apple and becoming the second largest company in the world by market value. Huida will conduct a 10-to-1 stock split after the market close on Friday, June 7, and will trade at the post-split price from June 10. Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh said this may create more retail investors. Demand, thus becoming another driver for the stock.
∎ ASML ADR (ASML-US) surged 9.52% to $943.60 per share. ASML, the world's leader in chip manufacturing equipment, revealed that TSMC, Intel and Samsung Electronics will receive ASML's latest High-NA EUV exposure machine before the end of this year.
∎ The index breaks through the previous high
∎ Operation plan: Stop profit on long orders at 18540 on 6/4. It is recommended to go long at 18950 today.
Stop loss: 120 points
Profit stop: 265 points
DJJ30 Jr.
∎ More than half of the Dow Jones stocks ended higher. Intel (INTC-US) rose 2.5%; Goldman Sachs (GS-US) rose 1.4%; Dow Chemical (DOW-US) rose 0.98%; Cisco (CSCO-US) fell 2.95%; Disney (DIS-US) fell 1.77 %.
∎ Apple (AAPL-US) closed up 0.78% at $195.87 per share, marking its eighth consecutive session of gains, its longest winning streak since March 2022. Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference next week could be a catalyst to speed up the iPhone replacement cycle.
∎ The bottom of the trail rebounds, the trend is upward
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long 38700 today.
∎ Stop loss: 165 points
Profit stop: 365 points
Euro EURUSD
∎ UBS analysts said that despite strong ISM service data, they believe the U.S. economy is slowing, although "it is not clear whether the dollar should be sold outright. The market has priced in the impact of about two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, and the investment bank does not I believe the U.S. dollar has a lot of room for downside.
∎ The latest data released by ISM on Wednesday showed that the non-manufacturing index jumped 4.4 points to 53.8 in May, which was the largest increase since the beginning of last year and set a nine-month high. It far exceeded economists’ expectations of 51.0 and was also higher than the previous value. 49.4, mainly benefiting from the largest monthly increase in the business activity production index since 2021. The ADP employment report released by the United States on Wednesday showed that private enterprise employment increased by a seasonally adjusted 152,000 people in May, hitting a three-month low and far lower than economists expected. However, the US dollar showed little reaction to the ADP report.
∎ The euro range oscillates
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go short at 10905 today.
Stop loss: 22 points
Profit stop: 49 points
light crude oil
∎ Strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a report: "While the market is disappointed with OPEC+'s decision to gradually end production cuts, the important point is that this move has only begun in October, and our supply and demand balance sheet continues It shows that the oil market tightened in the third quarter, so we think the scale of the selling at the front end of the forward curve is somewhat excessive."
∎ Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said oil prices experienced an "oversold rebound" after falling for a fifth consecutive day on Tuesday, but it remains to be seen whether this recovery can be sustained as demand continues to worry and OPEC+ decided to finally phase out voluntary production cuts, while supplies from non-OPEC countries are rising again.
∎ Oil prices rebound from the bottom
∎ Operation plan: 6/5 73.8 short order extension.
∎ Stop loss: 74.6
Stop profit: 72.2
Gold XAUUSD
∎ Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that weak labor data may force the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of the year, thereby increasing the investment appeal of gold. Because gold does not yield interest, interest rate cuts can reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
∎ Analysts said traders are paying close attention to the non-farm payrolls report scheduled to be released on Friday as it will likely affect gold prices.
∎ Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, is still bearish in the short term. “Gold’s trend signals no longer point unilaterally to the upside. In fact, CTA has become a moderate seller of gold during the recent price retracement. However, the short-term trend signals This deterioration is expected to be controlled."
Gold prices fluctuate within a range
∎ Operation plan: It is recommended to go long at 2360 today.
Stop loss: 13 points
Profit stop: 29 points
Soybean futures
∎ Soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade hit a one-month low on Wednesday as traders focused on U.S. weather and South American crop losses. Soybean futures had a technical rebound at the beginning of the session.
∎ CBOT-July soybean futures (SN24) closed down 1-3/4 cents at $11.77-1/4 per bushel.
∎ CBOT-July soybean meal (SMN24) closed up $4.40 at $359.50 per short ton.
∎ CBOT-July soybean oil (BON24) closed down 0.49 cents at 43.13 cents per pound.
∎ Soybeans continue to decline
∎ Operation suggestion: 6/5 1187 short order extension.
∎ Stop loss: 1185 (moving stop profit)
Stop profit: 1170
The content published in this publication is for reference only, and every effort has been made to be accurate and complete. However, due to changes in time and objective market factors, the relevant conditions of the industry, market or individual stocks may change. Investors must consider their own investment needs and risks.
