区块大华

1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts and Market Capital Flows: The Federal Reserve will likely resume its interest rate cut cycle in the second quarter of 2025. Interest rate cuts are akin to monetary easing, and the supply of dollars in the market will increase significantly. However, much of this new funding will flow into the hands of the wealthy and large institutions like BlackRock.
2. Gold Price Trend Forecast: Gold prices are expected to rise above $3,000. Against the backdrop of an uncertain global economic situation, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is increasingly highlighting its investment value.
3. U.S. Stock Market Performance Outlook: The overall U.S. stock market will show an upward trend, but the gains will be limited. Individual stock performance will exhibit clear polarization; some stocks may rise significantly, while others may experience substantial declines. This polarization is closely related to the performance of individual companies, industry prospects, and changes in the macroeconomic environment.

In the current financial investment field, virtual currency transactions have always attracted much attention. However, China has recently issued documents to strictly prohibit the deposit and withdrawal of cryptocurrency trading. This move has aroused heated discussions among many investors and has also put the market into a delicate atmosphere. Many people have a question in their minds: Does this mean that the bear market has arrived? From the actual situation, cryptocurrency trading is now facing unprecedented difficulties. Alipay, which once played an important role in the flow of funds, now also freezes funds involved in cryptocurrency trading. This makes the seemingly convenient cryptocurrency trading deposit and withdrawal channels extremely narrow and difficult. Many investors found that their funds were trapped, transactions could not proceed smoothly, and they even faced the risk of capital loss. China's resolute issuance of documents to strictly prohibit cryptocurrency trading deposits and withdrawals has profound policy considerations. Virtual currency transactions lack an effective regulatory mechanism, and their prices fluctuate violently, which can be easily used by criminals to carry out illegal activities such as money laundering and fraud. At the same time, virtual currency transactions may also have an impact on the stability of the financial market and disrupt the normal financial order. In order to maintain national financial security and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, the introduction of relevant policies is inevitable. This policy environment that strictly prohibits the deposit and withdrawal of cryptocurrencies has had a multi-faceted impact on the virtual currency market. On the one hand, the activity of transactions has dropped significantly and market liquidity has deteriorated. Investors who try to make profits through frequent transactions have suffered a heavy blow. On the other hand, market uncertainty has increased and investors' expectations for the future have become vague. In this case, even without a clear definition of a bear market, the market has shown a sluggish and unstable state. For the majority of investors, facing the current situation of difficulties in depositing and withdrawing cryptocurrencies, they must carefully consider their investment behavior. First of all, we must fully realize the high risk of virtual currency transactions and cannot ignore the huge risks behind them just because of the temporary temptation of interests. Secondly, we must abide by the laws and regulations of the country and do not try to make deposits and withdrawals through illegal means. Furthermore, investors need to re-examine their investment portfolios and find more legal, stable and secure investment channels.In short, China's policy of strictly prohibiting cryptocurrency trading has been made clear, and the market has undergone profound changes. Investors should remain rational and calm when facing virtual currency transactions, and should not blindly follow the trend. Under the current situation, carefully assessing risks and making wise investment decisions are the key to protecting one's own property safety. In the future, with the continuous development and improvement of the financial market, there will be more and more legal and compliant investment opportunities. Investors may wish to turn their attention to areas with greater potential and stability.

In the cryptocurrency space, filled with opportunities and risks, there are many little-known yet crucial tips and practical techniques that can often have unexpected effects for investors. Here are a few to share:

The Complex Truth of Cost Averaging: The calculation of cost averaging is not as straightforward as it seems. For instance, when the price of a cryptocurrency is 10U, you invest 10,000 U to buy the corresponding amount. Later, when the price drops to 5U, you invest another 10,000 U to average down. At this point, the average cost is not what most people think it is, (10 + 5) ÷ 2 = 7.5U, but is calculated using the following formula: Total investment ÷ Total quantity held. With the first investment of 10,000 U, you can buy 1,000 coins (10,000 ÷ 10), and with the second investment of 10,000 U, you can buy 2,000 coins (10,000 ÷ 5). With a total investment of 20,000 U, you hold 3,000 coins, making the average cost 20,000 ÷ 3,000 ≈ 6.67U. In a market that frequently fluctuates, thoroughly understanding this precise calculation method is crucial for scientifically and rationally managing positions and controlling investment risks.

#市场反弹预测 In the cryptocurrency world, contract trading appears mysterious but is not hard to understand. As the saying goes, one cannot learn to swim by standing on the shore; for those wanting to dive in, it may be wise to start with small funds. After all, there is a significant gap between theoretical understanding and practical operation.
One, initial capital planning

For beginners in futures trading, a starting capital of 1,000 to 10,000 yuan is relatively appropriate. The trading market is like a school that requires tuition, where many people pay high fees. Many start by investing all their savings or even borrowing to participate, ultimately ending up with nothing and facing family breakdowns. Using a small amount of capital to accumulate experience and increasing the principal only after achieving stable profits is the wise approach. Otherwise, even if experience is accumulated, the principal may be lost, making all efforts futile. If stable profits cannot be achieved in the end, it is also important to exit in a timely manner. Exiting at the right time is also a form of stop-loss, avoiding the waste of valuable time on futile matters.

Yesterday, the US dollar index surged strongly, causing tremors in global financial markets, with overall performance being sluggish. After the US stock market opened, there was a significant downward trend. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was also impacted, with BTC and ETH prices notably dropping, BTC hitting a low of 89000, and ETH approaching 2900. In the face of such intense market fluctuations, investors inevitably feel unsettled, but should they panic at this moment? The answer is no. In fact, during such times, investors should remain calm, boldly take positions at lower prices, and seize the opportunity to acquire those 'bloodied chips.'

In the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape, those who achieve financial freedom are like outstanding individuals who stand out. Their success in this field full of risks and opportunities is not a coincidence but a result of doing a series of key things right.
1. Cultivate a good mindset to easily cope with ups and downs
First, they view trading cryptocurrencies as a game and maintain a detached attitude towards profits and losses. In the extremely volatile environment of the cryptocurrency market, emotions can easily be swayed by price fluctuations. However, these successful individuals understand that only by maintaining a peaceful mindset can they stay clear-headed during trading and make rational decisions. They will not be complacent due to temporary profits, nor will they panic due to short-term losses, but will instead engage in the cryptocurrency game with a relaxed state of mind.

My hometown is in a rural area of Fujian, where there are quite a few people engaged in the online gambling industry. There are many that I have heard of. For more than a decade, this industry has never really gone away; we call it 'doing recruitment.' I am not very clear about the specifics of the business. In the early years, they might have relied on distributing paper-based pornographic advertisements or making pornographic phone calls to cheat middle-aged people out of their money. Later, regulation became stricter, ATM transfers could be reversed, and some less educated and less adaptable individuals were eliminated, causing this industry to quiet down for a while.
But not long after, various innovative online scams emerged again, with endless methods that even I find hard to guard against. Their business locations have also shifted from their own villages to other places, even going abroad, mainly concentrated in Myanmar and Cambodia. I heard that some people have gone to Dubai now.

#哪些代币逆势上涨？
Bitcoin (BTC)

It is expected that the target price for this round of bull market can reach $150,000. As a representative of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has always led market trends, and its scarcity and widespread recognition are important factors supporting price increases.
Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum needs to clear leverage first, and this process is nearing the end; it is expected to welcome a bull market afterward. As a pioneer platform for smart contracts, Ethereum occupies an important position in blockchain application development.
Tether (USDT)

The most representative stablecoin, anchored 1:1 to the US dollar, providing stability and liquidity to the crypto market.

I am keen on leveraging market sentiment to gain insights into the current phase of the short to medium-term market, where there exists a very interesting phenomenon.
When a large number of people start writing successful memoirs, it often means the market has reached its peak. Conversely, when many people begin to write reflections on their failures, it typically indicates that the market has hit its bottom. This rule has proven reliable in short-term trends, and the same applies when judging bull markets in larger cycles.
When the public realizes that a bull market is coming, it is likely that we are already in the latter half of the bull market. Taking the bull market in the cryptocurrency space in 2021 as an example, it began during the despair of March 12, 2020, but by the time most people recognized the bull market, it was already 2021, during which many cryptocurrencies had already seen gains of over tenfold.

At present, the market trend is clear, and even if there is a further decline, there is a high probability that the market will enter a bull market in the future. From the weekly chart, the double top pattern is clear; on the daily chart level, the price is close to the bottom range.
At present, market participants can be roughly divided into four categories: the first is the bulls who are firmly bullish and continue to be optimistic about the bull market; the second is the bears who are determined to be bearish on the market outlook; the third is the group that believes that the bull market has ended; and the fourth is the investors who are worried about the end of the bull market. The most likely strategy for the main force is to try to make these four groups suffer losses.
Bulls: Most of them hold the idea of ​​buying on dips, and they operate with almost full positions. They generally believe that 85,000 is the key support level, and once the price reaches this point, they will go long. Therefore, the main force may choose to pull back quickly when the price does not reach 85,000; or quickly fall below this point, causing the long positions to be liquidated, and then rebound strongly, and then adjust the strategy according to the market situation.

Recently, I have come into contact with quite a few spot traders, and their losses are shocking. After communicating with them, I found that most people feel like they have been taken advantage of. Why is there this feeling? To a large extent, it is because the voice that 'spot should be held without thinking' is too rampant in the market. What do you mean by holding spot without thinking? It's simply absurd! Such 'mindless holding' remarks can be seen everywhere on online platforms and various groups. Looking back at the end of 2021, the cryptocurrency market was bustling with activity, and many 'experts' offering signals emerged, filling both the spot and contract fields. These individuals have no concept of the bull and bear cycles and blindly encourage investors to hold without thought. When a black swan event occurs, they vanish without a trace, leaving behind retail investors struggling in the market's vortex. I have a deep disdain for those who shout to hold without thinking. Remarks like 'as long as you don't cut your losses, the market makers can't cut you' and 'if you hold through the bear market to the top of the bull market, you will make money' have misled a large number of investors. In reality, most retail investors lack the concept of bull and bear markets, often chasing highs and selling lows, completely misunderstanding the technique of buying high and selling low. The so-called ability to hold from the bottom of a bear market to the top of a bull market is rare; more often, people buy at the bottom only to helplessly cut losses at the bottom again. Those who advocate for mindless holding of spot either do not understand the transition of bull and bear markets or only limit their observations to small cycles below the daily timeframe. Such people should stop misleading the public. Small cycles are simply not suitable for trading spot. If you want to trade on your own, do it quietly and do not express such harmful opinions in public. After all, in today's online environment, as long as you accumulate a certain number of followers on a platform, even comments that are completely worthless will be blindly believed and followed by some. This often leads to the followers only facing losses. So, why is mindless holding of spot not recommended? You must know that the market has cyclical patterns. If one can indeed accurately catch the bottom, a long position is feasible. But the key issue is that the vast majority of retail investors cannot catch the lowest point, and instead, they are always on the path of chasing highs and selling lows. Therefore, we must focus on the market's phase tops. For this market, when the price approached around $70,000, I predicted that there would be a correction and promptly reminded about the risks. However, many people came to accuse me of being bearish. This truly leaves me helpless; these people do not even have the most basic risk awareness. Even in spot trading, risk awareness should be present. Because of this, many people's assets have been halved. Some may say that the market will rise back later, and as long as you hold on, there will be no problem. But they overlook an important factor: many retail investors are holding small amounts of capital. For small amounts of capital to achieve maximum efficiency, they must avoid significant declines in the market; only in this way can they quickly accumulate funds rather than being easily trapped for months or even years. So, how should small capital traders profit from spot trading? The answer is to perform periodic operations; they should neither blindly hold without thinking nor frequently engage in short-term trades. I have previously elaborated on the specific methods of spot trading, so I will not elaborate further here. In summary, to invest in spot trading in the cryptocurrency market, one must develop a reasonable strategy; only in this way can one achieve ideal returns and allow small capital to realize substantial profits in long-term trading.

In the current complex landscape of the financial market, three key events are drawing attention: the release of the non-farm payroll data, Donald Trump's inauguration, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision. These events will have far-reaching effects on market trends, and investors need to be cautious in their strategies. Tonight at 21:15, the non-farm payroll data will be released, followed by the initial jobless claims at 21:30. The market generally expects that these two pieces of data will show a slowdown in job growth. Based on past experience, weak employment data is often seen as a strong signal for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, if it aligns with expectations and shows a slowdown in job growth, will undoubtedly further strengthen the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, significantly increasing the likelihood of such a move. Although cryptocurrency is not a core issue for Trump, his policy direction will still have a long-term impact on the crypto space, particularly in terms of regulatory policy and market openness. Based on Trump’s previous economic philosophy and style, the market expects that he may promote a series of policies favorable to the crypto market. However, it should be clear that the implementation of these policies is a gradual process and is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in the cryptocurrency market. In the early hours of the 30th, the Federal Reserve will make a decision on interest rate cuts, which will largely depend on the overall economic data for this month. If economic data, especially employment and inflation data, shows support for an interest rate cut, the probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve is extremely high. Once the rate cut is implemented, market liquidity will significantly improve, providing strong support for the rise in asset prices. It is worth noting that even if various data shows favorable conditions, the market may not necessarily exhibit a linear upward trend. For example, last night, the market experienced a rapid decline and a large-scale washout of altcoins. This seemingly abnormal market fluctuation may actually have underlying reasons. It is possible that market leaders are using this opportunity to create space for the implementation of policies after the new government takes office while completing the turnover of principal funds, laying the foundation for a more dramatic market trend in the future. For investors, facing such a complex and ever-changing market environment, it is necessary to comprehensively consider various factors when making investment decisions. Closely monitor the actual release of the non-farm payroll data, deeply analyze the specific direction of Trump's policies after taking office, and precisely grasp the subtle changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions, in order to make wise and reasonable investment decisions to achieve steady asset growth amid market fluctuations.

#市场调整策略
In the early hours of the morning, the latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve attracted great attention from global financial markets, sending out a series of important signals about the future direction of monetary policy.
The minutes show that Fed officials have decided to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the coming months. This decision was made mainly based on two factors: on the one hand, the current inflation level is still higher than expected; on the other hand, there is great uncertainty about the potential impact of relevant policies on inflation after Trump took office. Fed officials generally believe that the current interest rate is close to or at a critical point where it is appropriate to slow down the interest rate cut. If the interest rate is cut too quickly, it is very likely to cause inflationary pressure to return.

Areas of Focus:
In the field of cryptocurrency: Focus on industries that performed poorly in 2024, such as gaming, zero-knowledge proof technology, and privacy solutions. As these industries transition from development to production, they may experience a resurgence with new use cases; also pay attention to emerging fields like decentralized science, real-world assets, stablecoins, and AI agents, which are ready for further development.In the field of blockchain: Treat it as a foundational area of focus, combining the development of cryptocurrency and other technologies, and may invest in projects related to blockchain application innovation, public chain performance enhancement, cross-chain technology, etc.

#加密市场回调
In the ever-changing financial market, every move of the dealer attracts the attention of numerous investors. Among them, market lifting and downturns are common methods used by dealers to manipulate stock price trends, hiding profound motives behind them.
Dealer's Market Manipulation: Intentions and Techniques

The core purpose of the dealer's market manipulation is to raise stock prices for subsequent high-level selling of their chips, achieving maximum profit. They understand that once low-priced chips are acquired by a large number of retail investors, they will face significant resistance when trying to raise prices later. Therefore, the dealer carefully plans their market manipulation actions, striving to push stock prices up as quickly as possible.

#比特币走势观察
Asset loss
Direct value shrinkage: For investors holding Bitcoin, the book value of their assets will drop significantly as the price plunges. For example, from the evening of November 25, 2024 to the early morning of November 26, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from a peak of about $99,000 per coin in a short period of time, once falling below the $93,000 mark, with the maximum drop exceeding 6%, and the assets of many investors were severely reduced.
Margin trading liquidation: Investors who use leveraged trading will be forced to close their positions when prices plunge if their margin is insufficient, resulting in the loss of all or most of their principal. The price of Bitcoin plummeted from the evening of November 25 to the early morning of November 26, 2024, causing more than 170,000 people in the cryptocurrency market to be liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of up to US$547 million.

#加密市场回调
1. Impact of macroeconomic data:
The US JOLTS employment report showed an increase of 259,000 job openings, and the labor market showed resilience. The ISM service industry price PMI also pointed to strong economic strength, which reduced the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates sharply in 2025. Originally, the market generally expected the Fed to start a rate cut cycle in the first half of 2025, but the continued strength of the job market means that wage growth pressure is difficult to ease, which may make the "last mile" of inflation control more difficult. The Fed may have to maintain a high interest rate environment for a longer period of time, which will put pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin.