#非农数据大幅超出预期 I am keen on leveraging market sentiment to gain insights into the current phase of the short to medium-term market, where there exists a very interesting phenomenon.
When a large number of people start writing successful memoirs, it often means the market has reached its peak. Conversely, when many people begin to write reflections on their failures, it typically indicates that the market has hit its bottom. This rule has proven reliable in short-term trends, and the same applies when judging bull markets in larger cycles.
When the public realizes that a bull market is coming, it is likely that we are already in the latter half of the bull market. Taking the bull market in the cryptocurrency space in 2021 as an example, it began during the despair of March 12, 2020, but by the time most people recognized the bull market, it was already 2021, during which many cryptocurrencies had already seen gains of over tenfold.
In the capital market, we must have a basic understanding: as long as there is a profit effect, it will attract a continuous influx of funds; conversely, once the profit effect weakens, the attention of funds will decrease, and naturally, short-term or medium-term returns will decline.
Initially, one or more factors attract capital market funds into the cryptocurrency space, and the market's profit effect begins to continuously absorb speculative hot money, which is an analysis from a macro perspective.
However, what is more crucial for us is to be in this market and genuinely feel what a bull market is like. A bull market is an indescribable feeling that can only be profoundly appreciated by those who have experienced it firsthand.
In fact, if you started participating in the cryptocurrency space from August last year, you should have already developed an intuitive feeling of being in a bull market.
So, what does a real bull market look like? In normal times, a daily increase of 3%-4% makes investors cheer with joy; whereas in a bull market, a daily increase of 30%-40% feels quite ordinary.
Looking back at the inscription trends in October 2023, as well as the AI and MEME trends in January and February 2024, and the SOL trends in March, all of these exhibit the same pattern. However, when we are in the midst of it, we often fail to notice.
In normal times, the rise of each cryptocurrency is driven by its own logic, involving factors such as financial and technical aspects. However, in a bull market, even the most inferior cryptocurrencies rise illogically, and sometimes right before your eyes, certain coins inexplicably increase by 100 times.
In normal times, some cryptocurrencies rise while others fall; in a bull market, all cryptocurrencies soar, with large bullish candles everywhere in the market that leave people baffled.
Normally, the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker; but in a bull market, chaos reigns, with all sorts of unimaginable trends that leave people astonished.
Under normal circumstances, investors deliberate and consider for a long time before buying cryptocurrencies; in a bull market, everyone rushes in, fearing that a second's delay will cost them a tenfold return.
Everyone can compare the above characteristics and carefully consider what stage the current market is in. Is the bull market yet to come? Or are we currently in a correction phase within a bull market? Or has the bull market already ended? I believe everyone will arrive at their own conclusions. How to judge whether the market has entered a bull market? What are the characteristics of bull and bear markets? How to seize investment opportunities in a bull market?