#市场反弹预测 Yesterday, the US dollar index surged strongly, causing tremors in global financial markets, with overall performance being sluggish. After the US stock market opened, there was a significant downward trend. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was also impacted, with BTC and ETH prices notably dropping, BTC hitting a low of 89000, and ETH approaching 2900. In the face of such intense market fluctuations, investors inevitably feel unsettled, but should they panic at this moment? The answer is no. In fact, during such times, investors should remain calm, boldly take positions at lower prices, and seize the opportunity to acquire those 'bloodied chips.'
Looking back at last night, when the BTC price fell below 90000, I decisively chose to buy the dip. Although market rotation patterns suggest that there may be a rise in altcoin trends later, it is evidently more prudent to prioritize positions in mainstream coins until clear signals appear. In the prevailing bullish trend, heavily investing in BTC during pullbacks is almost always the right choice, as no altcoin can surpass BTC's strength in the face of trend power.
Regarding the price range of BTC, based on my personal analysis and judgment, the psychological expected low is between 84000 and 87000. This range not only will not disrupt the overall upward trend on the monthly chart, but from a technical analysis perspective, it happens to be the bottom tunnel on the 4-hour chart, the middle tunnel on the 12-hour chart, and also the key support level of daily MA120. Given this, why did I decisively buy around 90000? The reason isn't complicated; reviewing past trends reveals that the current BTC market closely aligns with the 'weekly level slow wash' trend I predicted accurately a month ago.
The current fluctuating market of BTC is essentially a method used by market leaders to confuse retail investors through repeated volatility, enticing them to chase highs and sell lows. Meanwhile, during this fluctuation, the chips of altcoins are being washed lower and lower. In such a market environment, we still need to maintain a cautious attitude in the short term. Although a psychological price point is set, such as 89000, the market trend is complex and variable, and this price level may not be immediately breached. If investors approach the operations with a simple linear mindset, they often fall into losses or being trapped. It is worth noting that BTC could start a major upward wave at any time, so for every possible daily bottoming position, investors might as well boldly attempt dip-buying.
However, regarding the current market situation, have we already entered the main upward wave phase? In my view, it is still too early to draw this conclusion. There are still many uncertain factors in the current market, and we should retain a certain bearish perspective. However, it is clear that the price range of 89000 to 91000 is a highly valuable buying point. Even if this range does not represent a major bottom on the weekly or monthly level in the next two to three months, it can at least provide investors with an opportunity for substantial gains through swing trading.
$BTC