1. Impact of macroeconomic data:
The US JOLTS employment report showed an increase of 259,000 job openings, and the labor market showed resilience. The ISM service industry price PMI also pointed to strong economic strength, which reduced the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates sharply in 2025. Originally, the market generally expected the Fed to start a rate cut cycle in the first half of 2025, but the continued strength of the job market means that wage growth pressure is difficult to ease, which may make the "last mile" of inflation control more difficult. The Fed may have to maintain a high interest rate environment for a longer period of time, which will put pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rebounded sharply above 108.50, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 35-week high of 4.68%. This situation has led to a flow of funds into traditional safe assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, impacting the demand and price of Bitcoin.
2. Impact of related statements:
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and current Harvard University economics professor Lawrence Summers stated that the idea of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve is a crazy notion, with no apparent benefits aside from serving the interests of individual political sponsors. This statement may dampen market optimism about Bitcoin's future development.
3. Changes in market expectations:
Before the non-farm data arrives, the market is taking a cautious stance. The U.S. Labor Department's report shows that the number of first-time unemployment claims increased by 9,000, bringing the total to 224,000, higher than expected.
4. Leveraged trading and massive liquidations:
The current market leverage is nearing the levels seen at the peak of the 2021 bull market, and this high leverage environment greatly increases market vulnerability. Some analysts attribute the flash crash to massive liquidations, particularly those related to leveraged positions with major exchanges, which essentially are a series of margin calls forcing traders to sell their holdings all at once, triggering a cascade of price plunges and liquidation waves.
$BTC
