#加密市场回调
At present, the market trend is clear, and even if there is a further decline, there is a high probability that the market will enter a bull market in the future. From the weekly chart, the double top pattern is clear; on the daily chart level, the price is close to the bottom range.
At present, market participants can be roughly divided into four categories: the first is the bulls who are firmly bullish and continue to be optimistic about the bull market; the second is the bears who are determined to be bearish on the market outlook; the third is the group that believes that the bull market has ended; and the fourth is the investors who are worried about the end of the bull market. The most likely strategy for the main force is to try to make these four groups suffer losses.
Bulls: Most of them hold the idea of buying on dips, and they operate with almost full positions. They generally believe that 85,000 is the key support level, and once the price reaches this point, they will go long. Therefore, the main force may choose to pull back quickly when the price does not reach 85,000; or quickly fall below this point, causing the long positions to be liquidated, and then rebound strongly, and then adjust the strategy according to the market situation.
Shorts: Their position is not firm, and once prices break through previous highs, they will immediately stop-loss and exit, or even reverse to go long, typically not exceeding one-third of their position. Therefore, even if a pullback occurs currently, it is unlikely to be a short-term high, which makes shorts hesitant to easily enter the market. The main force can only initiate a downward trend after converting shorts to longs to gain enough opposing positions for liquidation profit. After all, while the main force can control the medium-short term trends, it is difficult to influence the long-term trend; in the long run, the continuation of the bull market aligns with the interests of the longs.
The group that believes the bull market is over: These investors dare not heavily short and often choose to chase shorts during price declines. To make them incur losses, the market needs to experience a sharp drop to entice them to enter. When this group becomes firmly bearish, it usually coincides with the start of the altcoin bull market, at which point they are almost out of positions.
Investors worried about the end of the bull market: This group of investors has distinct trading characteristics, buying high during price increases and hurriedly selling during declines. The main force often employs oscillation techniques to make them suffer at least two losses in repeated operations. Such investors typically hold multiple positions in altcoins, and the goal of the main force is to force them to sell their chips too early during price increases while still having room to rise, then induce them to re-purchase when the bear market arrives.
Looking back at the market situation in January this year, prices once rebounded to 102800, forcing the shorts to stop-loss; subsequently, it dipped to 91500, causing the longs to be liquidated. This series of fluctuations made investors who believed the bull market was over even more convinced of their judgment, leading them to choose to stay on the sidelines; meanwhile, investors worried about the end of the bull market suffered heavy losses during the ups and downs of altcoins in December last year and January this year, resulting in a loss of confidence. By this point, the main force's goal of washing out positions has basically been achieved.
In summary, even though the current market has not yet reached the bottom, it is not far from it.
