Mr-Q

#日内交易策略

📊 Day Trading Strategy: The Key to Success in Ultra-Short-Term Operations

✅ What is Day Trading?

Day trading refers to a short-term trading method where positions are opened and closed within the same trading day, without holding overnight, suitable for high-volatility markets such as stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies.

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🧠 Core Strategy Structure
1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
• 📅 Large Timeframe (1H, 4H) to determine trend
• 📉 Medium Timeframe (15-min K) to observe patterns (flags, triangles, head and shoulders)
• 📈 Small Timeframe (1-min K, 5-min K) to find precise entry points and stop-loss levels
2. Technical Tools Combination
• Trend lines / Support and Resistance (SNR)
• Volume (breakout on increased volume)
• OB (Order Block), FVG (Fair Value Gap) to determine market maker intentions
• EMA crossovers, RSI overbought/oversold, MACD divergence (optional)
3. Strict Risk Management
• ⛔ Fixed risk per trade: Reward-to-Risk Ratio ≥ 2:1
• ⚖️ Rigorous position sizing, adjusted according to capital stages (e.g., 10% to 25%)
• ❗ Never add to losing positions, do not average down, do not scale in against the trend

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🕐 Common Entry Timeframes
• 🕘 Asian Session Opening (9:00 AM - 11:00 AM)
• 🕔 London Session Start (3:00 PM - 5:00 PM)
• 🕗 New York Session Surge (8:30 PM - 11:00 PM)

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📌 Practical Tips
• Only trade breakouts, do not predict reversals
• Wait for confirmation candles or pullback signals
• Discipline over prediction, winning or losing depends on risk management
• Trade patterns and timeframes you understand

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📈 Conclusion

The key to success in day trading lies in speed, discipline, and systematic strategies. Through multi-timeframe analysis, risk management, and technical integration, one can identify 1 to 3 high-probability opportunities daily, ultimately establishing a stable profit model over the long term.

#美国加征关税

🇺🇸 The United States initiates a new round of tariff sanctions: Global trade is tense again

✅ Policy Overview

In April 2025, the United States announced a 10% to 70% tariff on imported goods from over 60 countries under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, primarily due to "unfair trade practices," "currency manipulation," and "anti-American policies." The new tariffs are expected to take effect on August 1.

🎯 Examples of Targeted Items and Tariff Rates
• China: Additional tariffs on top of existing high tariffs, with some products having a total tax rate exceeding 100%.
• European Union: Steel and aluminum products face a 50% tariff, with some countries in negotiations.
• India, Vietnam: Tariff rates range from 25% to 40%, depending on the product category.
• Taiwan: Average tariff of 32%, but high-tech products like chips are exempt.
• South Africa, Brazil, and other BRICS countries: An additional 10% punitive tariff.

📉 Possible Impacts
• Increased corporate costs → Global supply chain restructuring
• Heightened inflation pressure → Consumers bear the cost
• Retaliation from multiple countries → Several countries are drafting retaliatory tariffs (especially China and the EU)
• Challenge to the WTO multilateral order → Rise of unilateralism

📅 Key Milestones
• July to August: Most countries are negotiating with the United States; if no agreement is reached, tariffs will go into effect as planned.
• By the end of the year: A new wave of global trade confrontations may erupt.

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📌 Summary:
The U.S. move is not only an economic measure but also has geopolitical implications, aiming to rally allies and isolate opponents. For global export-oriented countries and businesses, it is both a risk and an opportunity, inevitably prompting further adjustments in the global supply chain.

$BTC

Elon Musk's Influence Analysis on Bitcoin

1. The Key Driver of Market Volatility

Musk's public statements often serve as catalysts for the dramatic fluctuations in bitcoin prices. Whether it’s a tweet, an interview, or corporate actions, any of these can trigger significant price increases or decreases within hours. For example:
• In February 2021, Tesla announced the purchase of $1.5 billion in bitcoin and would accept bitcoin payments, causing the BTC price to surge.
• In May of the same year, Musk expressed concerns about the energy consumption of bitcoin mining, and Tesla suspended bitcoin payments, leading to a sharp price drop.
• Subsequently, he posted multiple times calling for the use of green energy in mining, influencing market views on the sustainability of bitcoin.

This 'Musk Effect' brings extremely high market volatility in the short term, making investors both hopeful and cautious.

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2. Promoting Green Transformation and Sustainable Development in the Industry

In response to the environmental controversies surrounding bitcoin mining's energy consumption, Musk actively calls for miners to adopt renewable energy and accelerates the market and mining operations toward green mining. His stance has hastened the bitcoin ecosystem’s emphasis on energy efficiency, driving the development and application of various green technologies.

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3. Facilitating Mainstream Acceptance of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

As the driving force behind Tesla and SpaceX, Musk has spurred enterprises' practical applications of bitcoin. Tesla briefly accepted bitcoin for car purchases, creating a new landscape for cryptocurrency payments. Although this was halted due to energy concerns, this action set a benchmark for the mainstream adoption of bitcoin. Additionally, Musk has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrencies, enhancing public and mainstream capital confidence in bitcoin.

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4. Impact on the Bitcoin Community and Culture

Musk's words and actions inspire the community of bitcoin and cryptocurrency enthusiasts, prompting them to become advocates for technological innovation and the philosophy of financial freedom. He is also viewed as a key figure in promoting the mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies, influencing millions of retail investors.

#马斯克计划成立美国党

📌 Background: From Entrepreneur to Political Challenger

In recent years, Musk has frequently ventured into political topics, initially publicly supporting Trump's tax reforms and immigration policies, but later expressing dissatisfaction with Trump's stance on fiscal spending and regulatory policies. His establishment of the American Party is seen as a challenge to the traditional two-party system (Democratic and Republican parties).

He emphasized: "We no longer accept the bad and the worse among two options; Americans deserve a real choice that represents the future."

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🎯 Key Concepts of the 'American Party'

Musk briefly mentioned his party's claims in a statement, mainly revolving around the following directions:
• ✅ Fiscal conservatism, opposing unlimited borrowing
• ✅ Promoting AI and robotic modernization of military reform
• ✅ Supporting technological innovation and free markets
• ✅ Opposing bureaucracy and cumbersome regulations
• ✅ Advocating for high-quality immigration and educational freedom

These concepts indicate that the 'American Party' will revolve around technology, innovation, and liberalism, appealing to dissatisfied young voters and centrists.

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🗳️ Future Routes and Plans

According to Musk's post, his goal is not to immediately seek the presidency but to aim for:
• 2 to 3 Senate seats in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections
• 8 to 10 House seats
• Becoming a "key minority" in Congress, influencing the direction of legislation

This strategic layout mirrors his business approach of "initially entering the market on a small scale."

🔍 Analysis: Is this a serious political revolution or a battle of public opinion?

Some experts believe that Musk's establishment of the American Party might be a public opinion action to test the waters, aimed at rallying supporters and pressuring the Republican Party for reform. However, others argue that if he can find an effective team and grassroots organization, the possibility of running for president in the future cannot be ruled out.

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🧠 Conclusion

Musk aims not only to change cars, space, and communications, but is now even attempting to alter the political landscape of the United States. Whether the 'American Party' can break the long-standing monopoly of the two parties is still too early to say, but this cross-industry experiment from business to politics will undoubtedly bring new possibilities to the political situation in the United States and even globally.

#长期持有策略

1️⃣ Who is it suitable for?
• Office workers who cannot monitor the market daily
• Those optimistic about the cryptocurrency industry in the next 3 to 5 years
• Those who want to leverage time for greater returns

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2️⃣ How to choose coins?

✅ Choose mainstream coins with high market value and real applications
✅ Projects that are transparent, have an active community, and show development progress
✅ Avoid small coin speculation, as the risks are high and returns are hard to capture

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3️⃣ How to enter the market?
• Dollar-cost averaging (DCA): Buy regularly every week/month
• Add to positions during major drops: Buy in batches during a 20% to 30% decline
• Technical analysis reference: Consider entering when close to long-term support

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4️⃣ How to manage risks?
• Do not exceed 10% to 20% in a single coin
• Sell decisively to stop losses if the fundamentals of the coin deteriorate
• Regularly check asset allocation, reduce positions when prices rise, and observe when they drop

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5️⃣ Mindset: Patience + Discipline
• Do not focus on short-term price fluctuations
• Stay away from FOMO and FUD
• Time is the best amplifier, and compound interest is the greatest dividend in the long run

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📌 Summary: Choose the right coins, buy in batches, hold with patience, operate less, and observe more. Leverage the advantage of time to consistently profit in the crypto space!

#现货与合约策略

🎯《Spot and Contract Strategy Essentials: Flexible Operations, Navigating Bull and Bear Markets》

In the cryptocurrency market, spot and contracts each have their roles; they are not opposing but complementary.

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📘 Spot Strategy | Steady Asset Appreciation
• Dollar-Cost Averaging: Long-term absorption of market opportunities, averaging cost.
• Support Buying: Buying at technical lows, paired with fundamental selection.
• Coin Rotation: Mainstream coins in the early bull market, switching to smaller coins in the mid to late stages.
• Staking and Wealth Management: Pairing with locked-in annual returns to enhance holding efficiency.

👉 Suitable for those with a long-term positive outlook on the market and conservative capital.

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📕 Contract Strategy | Flexible Profit Amplification
• Short-term Breakthrough: 1-15 minute K-line operations, seizing volatility opportunities.
• Medium-term Swing: 4-hour to daily trend trading, capturing major upward segments.
• Long-term Trend Positions: Small leverage setups to ride through whole market waves.
• Two-way Arbitrage: Flexible long and short positions during market highs or panic.

👉 The key lies in risk control: leverage ratio, stop-loss settings, capital management.

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📊 Spot + Contract | Advanced Combination Strategies
• Spot Holding + Contract Amplification: Bottom positioning, magnifying breakouts.
• Spot + Contract Hedging: Locking in profits or hedging against volatility.
• Swing Contracts + Spot Backup: Focusing on contract efficiency, with spot providing liquidity.

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✅ Summary

Spot ensures safety, while contracts drive efficiency. Understanding how to combine them allows one to survive and thrive through the alternating bull and bear markets.

$BTC

📉 1. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Market Reactions
• CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in July is below 5%, with a general expectation for a rate cut to begin in September.
• Strong employment and inflation indicators lead the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rate policies in the short term, suppressing risk asset prices.

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💰 2. Historical Impact of Rate Cuts on Bitcoin
• In the past, such as during the 2020–2021 QE and zero interest rate period, Bitcoin surged over 200%.
• In contrast, during the 2022–2023 interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction period, it fell by 75%.

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📈 3. Current Rate Cuts as Potential Catalysts for Year-End
• Analysis indicates that a 1% rate cut could potentially drive Bitcoin up by 13%–21%, or even higher.
• If rate cuts officially start, a favorable environment will stimulate a surge in demand for risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to regain its momentum to the range of $120K–$143K.

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⏳ 4. Investment Rhythm and Key Technical Points
• If Bitcoin breaks through the resistance at $114K, there could be an opportunity to push towards $143K.
• However, if the timing of the rate cut becomes uncertain or if the Fed delays action, Bitcoin may oscillate in the range of $107K–$110K.

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🏦 5. Analysis of Mixed Factors Trends
• A strong dollar and high bond yields are likely to suppress Bitcoin in the short term.
• However, combined with increasing government bonds, inflation pressures, and ongoing large-scale ETF purchases, Bitcoin still has a foundation for medium-term growth.

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🎯 6. Operational Recommendations and Risk Management
• Short-term strategy: first observe whether the Fed's first rate cut (expected around September) materializes; if it does, timely participation in buybacks is recommended.
• Medium to long-term positioning: enter in batches; if it stabilizes in the $107K–$110K range, it can be seen as a buying opportunity.
• Risk management: set stop-loss below $105K, and pay attention to CPI data (especially in November) and employment reports, as they may determine the Fed's last rate cut action.

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✅ Summary View

If the Fed initiates rate cuts in the second half of the year, Bitcoin is likely to benefit, potentially climbing to the range of $120K–$143K. However, if rate cuts are delayed or not substantial, Bitcoin may consolidate at high levels or pull back. The key is to closely monitor the Fed's rate cut timeline, CPI/employment data, and the volume coordination after breaking key technical resistance.

#比特币巨鲸动向

🐋 Current Bitcoin Whale Movements

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1️⃣ Whale Awakening | BTC that hasn't moved for 14 years reappears on-chain

An old address activated in 2009 suddenly transferred over 80,000 BTC (approximately $8.6 billion) in several batches to new addresses. This is one of the earliest miners in history, and this amount of funds has not moved for 14 years, raising high market concerns about whether it is a precursor to a sell-off.

🔍 Key Observation: Funds did not flow to exchanges; it currently appears to be a “safe transfer” or asset re-management.

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2️⃣ Short-term Price Volatility | Panic Triggers Liquidation Wave

After the news was released, Bitcoin briefly dropped over 10%, and market sentiment turned bearish, with liquidation amounts exceeding $300 million in 24 hours. However, the price then stabilized above $105,000, indicating that bulls still have some support.

📉 Key Support Zone: $105,000 to $108,000. If lost, the pullback will widen.

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3️⃣ Whale Transfers ≠ Sell-off | No cash-out actions observed

These transferred BTC did not enter centralized exchanges, nor was there any significant selling pressure in the OTC market. Analysis suggests it could be a diversion between cold and hot wallets or a restructuring of asset planning, possibly involving family trusts or institutional custody transfers.

🧊 Conclusion: Transfer ≠ Sell-off, do not panic excessively.

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4️⃣ Overall Trend of Whales Changing? | From Absorption to Release

According to CryptoQuant data, whale holdings have been continuously increasing over the past six months, but a net outflow phenomenon appeared for the first time in July, indicating that some whales might be cashing out or reallocating at high levels.

📊 Observation Point: A continuous outflow plus inflow to exchanges would signal a clear sell-off.

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5️⃣ ETF Provides Stable Buying | Bulls Still Have Confidence

Although the transfer from old addresses has caused market unease, capital in Bitcoin spot ETFs continues to flow in, especially from the US with BlackRock and Fidelity showing stable inflows, forming medium-term support.

💼 Source of Support: While retail investors panic, institutional funds are seizing the opportunity to accumulate.

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6️⃣ Operational Suggestions | Safe Strategies Amid Whale Storm

✅ Short-term Recommendation: Observe whether $105,000 holds; if stable, consider phased positioning.
❌ Avoid chasing highs: Awakening whales usually won’t sell immediately, but will make the market highly sensitive.
📈 Medium-term Positioning: If whales do not materially sell off, coupled with continuous ETF inflows, there is still a chance to return to bullish territory.

#大而美法案

I. What is the ‘Big and Beautiful Act’?

‘Big and Beautiful’ is a sarcastic nickname that fundamentally focuses on antitrust actions and increased regulation of large beauty corporations. This act primarily legislates the following points:
1. Limit malicious mergers of large enterprises with startup brands
• Large brands have previously swallowed potential startups through acquisitions, creating market monopolies.
• The act will require the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to conduct stricter reviews on any brand merger that exceeds a specific market share.
2. Enhance transparency requirements for ‘advertising labels’ on social media
• Especially targeting influencers and KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) promoting products, requiring clear labeling of sponsorships and commercial collaborations.
3. Ensure opportunities for small and medium-sized brands
• Encourage retailers (such as Sephora, Ulta) to allocate shelf space for local brands or startups.
4. Standards for green and non-toxic products
• Require brands to clearly label ingredient sources, whether they are organic, cruelty-free, etc., to eliminate ‘greenwashing’ practices.

II. Motivation Behind the Act

1. Social awakening to aesthetics and packaging

Consumers are no longer solely pursuing glamorous packaging but are focusing on the values behind the products—ingredient safety, brand ethics, and sustainability concepts. The act aims to correct market trends through this.

2. Growing calls for antitrust actions

International beauty giants like L’Oréal and Estée Lauder have monopolized the market for years, making it difficult for innovative brands to break through. The ‘Big and Beautiful Act’ intends to disrupt this ecosystem and support more startup power.

Conclusion: Is it reform or intervention?

The ‘Big and Beautiful Act’ is not just an upgrade in industry regulation; it is also a social debate about fairness, transparency, and value-oriented consumption. In an era where consumers are becoming smarter and competition among brands is intensifying, such an act may become a milestone for the new era of the beauty industry.

However, it is also essential to be cautious, as the act's enforcement and detailed design will determine whether it truly promotes industry evolution or becomes a shackle that stifles innovation.

$BTC

I. Current interest rate cut expectations remain uncertain
• CPI and PCE data: Although they show a trend of declining inflation, core inflation remains sticky.
• Job market: The unemployment rate has started to rise slightly, but overall wage growth has not shown significant slowing.
• Fed official statements: Keeping the possibility of rate cuts open, but clearer signals of price cooling are needed.

🔍 The latest dot plot indicates that most officials expect to initiate rate cuts as early as Q4 2025, but earlier possibilities cannot be ruled out, especially if the economy suddenly weakens.

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II. If there is a rate cut before the end of the year, what impact will it have on Bitcoin?

✅ Favorable factors:
1. Lower cost of capital → Increased attractiveness of risk assets
Rate cuts mean lower returns on cash and bonds, making it more likely for funds to flow into crypto assets, tech stocks, and gold, which are high-risk or inflation-hedging tools.
2. Weaker dollar, supportive for BTC
Rate cuts often lead to a decline in the dollar index, and Bitcoin, as a hedge against the dollar, tends to rise in this scenario.
3. Institutional buying returning
If the rate cut signal is clear, mainstream institutions like Blackstone and BlackRock might increase their allocation to Bitcoin ETFs and other products, boosting spot demand.

III. If there is no rate cut by the end of the year or it continues to be delayed, what will the impact be?

❌ Pressure factors:
1. Capital leaning towards conservatism, risk assets retreat
2. Dollar remains strong, weakening BTC's hedging appeal
3. Increased pressure on leveraged market liquidation

If inflation remains stubborn and the Fed maintains high rates until early 2026, Bitcoin may face a period of volatility and consolidation in the short to medium term, especially for those investors who entered at high levels and high-leverage traders who will face greater risks.

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IV. Conclusion: Policy turning point, also an important turning point for Bitcoin

The long-term value of Bitcoin is built on anti-inflation, asset liberalization, and decentralization, but its price trends remain extremely influenced by macro monetary policy in the short term.

#美国国债

1. What is U.S. Treasury Debt?

U.S. Treasury debt is government bonds issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, denominated in U.S. dollars, mainly divided into:
• Short-term Treasury bills (T-Bills): with a maturity of less than 1 year
• Medium-term Treasury notes (T-Notes): with a maturity of 2 to 10 years
• Long-term Treasury bonds (T-Bonds): with a maturity of 20 to 30 years

The interest rates (yields) and market prices of these bonds are influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policies, inflation expectations, economic data, and geopolitical risks.

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2. Significance of Issuing Treasury Debt

1. Financing for the government

Every issuance of Treasury debt is part of the U.S. government's efforts to cover budget deficits, repay principal and interest, or meet emergency expenditures. For example, military, infrastructure, and social welfare expenditures may rely on debt issuance.

2. Reflecting market expectations for interest rates and the economy

If the market expects inflation to rise, investors will demand higher interest rates, leading to increased bond yields and decreased prices. Conversely, if there is market panic and a search for safe havens, funds will flow into the Treasury market, pushing prices up and yields down.

3. Global capital pricing benchmark

U.S. Treasury debt serves as a benchmark tool for the "risk-free rate" and has a stabilizing effect on the global financial system. Whether it is mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, or funding pressures in emerging markets, they are almost all closely related to U.S. Treasury yields.

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3. Treasury Auction Mechanism and Recent Trends

U.S. Treasury debt is issued through an auction process, which is divided into competitive and non-competitive bidding:
• Bidders (mostly large institutions) will quote the interest rates they are willing to accept.
• Non-competitive bidders (such as individual investors) will accept the interest rate determined by the Treasury Department.

According to the latest round of Treasury debt issuance in June 2025:
• The winning bid interest rate for 10-year Treasury bonds reached 4.39%, hitting a recent high
• The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.4, indicating strong market demand for the bond
• Major central banks in Asia and Europe remain key buyers, demonstrating strong demand for U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven

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$BTC

【What Does a US Attack on Iran Mean for Bitcoin?】 How will digital gold fare in the midst of war?

1. Is Bitcoin a "safe-haven asset" or a "risk asset"?

✅ Favorable Factors:
1. Gold-like Properties: Bitcoin has a limited supply, is decentralized, and is not controlled by sovereign nations, similar to "digital gold," and may be viewed as a safe haven in extreme market conditions.
2. De-dollarization Trend: If war leads to a decline in international trust in the US financial system, it may prompt some funds to shift towards Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.
3. Iran is a Major User of Cryptocurrency: If sanctions worsen, regional funds may increasingly turn to Bitcoin as a medium of exchange or a capital safe haven.

❌ Unfavorable Factors:
1. Bitcoin is still viewed as a high-volatility risk asset: If overall market risk aversion rises, funds often flow into USD, gold, and US Treasuries first, leading to outflows from the crypto market.
2. Increased Leverage Liquidation Risk: War news could trigger short-term panic, causing significant market volatility, large-scale liquidations, and liquidity crises.

2. Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin (Assuming US-Iran War)

📉 Scenario One: Short-term Decline (Market Panic)
• If the US military suddenly conducts airstrikes and oil prices soar, global funds will quickly flow back to USD and US Treasuries;
• Bitcoin may be viewed as a "high-risk asset" and experience a sharp drop.

Response Suggestion: Control leverage, pay attention to key support levels (e.g., $60,000 / $52,000), and wait for rebound opportunities after panic subsides.

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📈 Scenario Two: Medium to Long-term Rise (Inflow of Digital Safe-haven Funds)
• If the conflict escalates over a prolonged period, the credibility of the USD diminishes, and regional private funds from Iran, Turkey, Lebanon, etc. shift towards cryptocurrencies;
• Institutional funds begin accumulating Bitcoin as a "non-political safe-haven asset."

Response Suggestion: Watch for trend breakthroughs (e.g., $66,000 / $70,000), any pullbacks present accumulation opportunities, and establish medium to long-term positions.

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📊 Scenario Three: Volatile Consolidation, Chaotic Trends
• The market oscillates between "war panic" and "inflation trading";
• Oil and gold rise together, stock markets decline, and BTC oscillates at high levels, lacking a clear direction.

Response Suggestion: Reduce trading frequency, observe capital flows and policy trends, and wait for a clear direction.

#波段交易策略

I. What is Swing Trading?

Swing trading is a medium-term trading strategy, with holding periods typically ranging from several days to several weeks. Traders use technical analysis (sometimes supplemented by fundamental analysis) to predict market reversal points and trend extension points, choosing appropriate times to enter and exit positions. Compared to day trading, it does not require long hours of monitoring the market and offers more proactive control than long-term holding, making it suitable for investors with some analytical skills who cannot trade all day.

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II. Core Principles of Swing Trading

1. Trend Following: Respect the Trend
• Swing traders do not open positions against the trend, usually looking for entry points only after confirming market direction.
• Use tools like “high-low swings,” “breakout retests,” and “moving average arrangements” to determine the main trend.

2. Patience to Wait for Entry Points
• Do not chase prices; wait for “pullbacks + support” or “consolidation + breakout” before entering.
• Utilize Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, OBV, and support/resistance to assist in observing turning points.

3. Risk Management and Stop-Loss Design
• Swing trades typically use “fixed percentage stop-loss” or “technical stop-loss” strategies.
• Stop-loss points are often set just below the “previous low (for long positions)” or “previous high (for short positions).”

III. Advantages and Disadvantages of Swing Trading

✅ Advantages:
• Great time flexibility: no need to monitor the market constantly, suitable for office workers or part-time investors.
• Stable profit potential: a successful swing trade can yield returns of 5% to 20%.
• Less likelihood of being shaken out: compared to day trading, it is less affected by short-term market fluctuations.

❌ Disadvantages:
• Requires strong technical analysis skills: must understand patterns, trends, and reversals.
• Holding risk is higher than short-term trading: if an overnight black swan event occurs, losses may be magnified.
• The market needs to exhibit volatility: during consolidation periods, it is easy to be shaken out multiple times.

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IV. Practical Case Analysis

Example: Bitcoin (BTC) Swing Trading Strategy Example (Hypothetical Chart)
1. Identify that the 4-hour candlestick forms an ascending triangle.
2. Price breaks above the upper edge of the triangle with increased volume.
3. Retest confirms support; enter a long position with a stop-loss set 2% below support.
4. Use previous high + Fibonacci target levels as profit-taking references, achieving a profit of 10%.

#X超级应用转型

I. What is a 'Super App'?

A Super App is a multi-functional integrated platform where users can complete various daily digital activities within a single application, such as social chatting, payments, shopping, ride-hailing, ticket booking, gaming, etc. Classic examples include WeChat in Asia, Grab in Southeast Asia, and GoJek in Indonesia.

The transformation direction of X is exactly this: evolving from a platform of 'posting + replying' to an integrated platform combining financial technology (FinTech), generative AI, multimedia, and digital identity systems.

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II. Key Steps for Transformation

1. Brand Renaming and Platform Positioning Restructuring

In 2023, Musk officially renamed Twitter to 'X', symbolizing a break from the past and emphasizing its ambition to become a 'universal app'. 'X' as a brand resonates with the payment platform X.com he founded early on and hints at future plans to integrate payment functions.

2. Integration of Payment and Financial Services

X is actively applying for financial licenses in multiple states, aiming to allow users to transfer money, make payments, and even manage investment portfolios directly within the platform. This is not just imitating PayPal but holds the potential to develop into a gateway for decentralized finance (DeFi).

3. Launching Monetization for Creators and Advertising Optimization Mechanisms

To attract creators and businesses, X has established systems like 'paid subscriptions', 'advertising revenue sharing', and 'premium content promotion', and is gradually introducing AI algorithms to accurately distribute content, enhancing engagement and revenue potential.

4. Integration of AI and Multimedia Content

Through collaboration with OpenAI and built-in AI assistants, X is enhancing the platform's intelligent dialogue and information summarization capabilities. At the same time, it is aggressively advancing video content distribution and live streaming functions, gradually capturing market share from YouTube and TikTok.

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III. Challenges and Risks
1. User Trust and Privacy Controversies: During the transformation process, X must collect more data to realize payment and AI functions, which will raise privacy and cybersecurity risks.
2. Regulatory Pressure: The cross-border integration of finance and media may face scrutiny and pressure from regulatory agencies in multiple countries.
3. Intense Competitive Environment: Meta, Google, and Apple all have the potential and technical foundation to enter the super app space, and whether X can establish a dominant position in the global market remains uncertain.

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$USDC

✅ Current USDC Major Use Cases (Mid-2025)

1. Core Stable Asset in DeFi Protocols
• As collateral for lending platforms (such as Aave, Compound).
• Providing liquidity pairs on DEXs (Uniswap, Curve, Balancer).
• Commonly used in stablecoin pools (such as USDC/DAI/USDT) to earn transaction fee revenue and liquidity mining rewards.

👉 USDC is one of the most widely used stablecoins in L2s like Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Optimism.

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2. Cross-Chain Transfers and Bridging
• Using protocols like LayerZero, Wormhole, Axelar to transfer from the Ethereum chain to other chains like Solana, Base, Polygon.
• Circle launched a native cross-chain protocol [CCTP (Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol)] that allows USDC to be natively burned and minted, reducing the risks of traditional bridging.

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3. Web3 Payments and Business Integration
• Several Web3 applications have supported using USDC as a payment currency (such as Magic Eden, OpenSea).
• Traditional e-commerce platforms like Shopify and Visa have started integrating Circle API to accept USDC.
• USDC on Solana is widely used for instant payments and in-game currency for GameFi.

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4. Institutional Use and Reserve Asset
• USDC is issued by Circle and in partnership with Coinbase, backed by complete U.S. financial reports and audits.
• High stability and transparency, used by some DAOs and Web3 protocols as treasury reserve assets (for example, MakerDAO converting part of its DAI reserves to USDC).

#鲍威尔发言

🔒 Powell's Hawkish Tone Reappears: Focus on Inflation and Geopolitics
• This time, interest rates remain unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth time this year that rates have held steady. However, Powell emphasized that there will be no rush to cut rates and that more data is needed to support any decision.
• He pointed out:
"We expect a meaningful amount of inflation to arrive in the coming months,"
indicating that even without policy adjustments, there are still risks of rising inflation this summer.
• Additionally, variables such as Trump’s tariffs and conflicts in the Middle East could lead to further inflationary pressures. Powell stated that inflation is not solely driven by internal economic factors but is also "pushed by external factors."

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📊 Outlook: Rate Cuts and Economic Growth Adjustments
• Although the Fed predicts that there may still be two rate cuts this year, most members have shifted to a more conservative stance, with 7 out of 19 members no longer expecting rate cuts.
• Economic models indicate that GDP growth will drop to 1.4% by 2025, with core PCE inflation rising to about 3.0–3.1%.

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📉 Market Reaction: Stock and Bond Volatility, Divergent Performance in U.S. Stocks
• The general stock market experienced a brief pullback following Powell's remarks, with the Dow slightly down -0.1%, the S&P remaining flat, and the Nasdaq rising against the trend by +0.1%.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, and the yield curve adjusted, with investors leaning towards long-term bonds for hedging purposes.

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🌐 Other Asset Movements: Gold and Bitcoin
• Gold has been supported by geopolitical instability and inflation expectations, with prices slightly rising.
• The cryptocurrency market may also benefit from a reallocation of assets, but if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, it could apply pressure on high-risk assets.

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🧩 What Should Investors Do?
1. Short-term Strategy
• If Powell continues to emphasize inflation pressures, leading to stock market volatility, caution should be taken with cryptocurrencies and high-risk assets.
• With bond yields rising, consider allocating to both short- and long-term bonds for stability.
• Gold may be viewed as a defensive asset.
2. Medium to Long-term Layout
• If the economy continues to slow, the Fed may cut rates before the end of the year, providing opportunities for rate-sensitive assets (such as tech stocks and real estate) to rebound.
• However, the Fed will focus on data, with a tendency to stabilize markets amidst volatility, so diversifying asset allocation to spread risk is advisable.

#加密概念美股

💡 What are cryptocurrency concept stocks?

Cryptocurrency concept stocks refer to publicly traded companies that have a direct or indirect association with blockchain technology, cryptocurrency mining, trading platforms, crypto payments, NFTs, and ecological infrastructure.

These companies may not be issuers of tokens, but their business highly relies on or benefits from the development of the cryptocurrency industry.

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🧭 Main types of cryptocurrency concept stocks and representative companies

1️⃣ Cryptocurrency mining stocks
• Riot Platforms (RIOT)
• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)
• Hut 8 Mining (HUT)
These companies primarily engage in Bitcoin mining, and their stock prices are highly correlated with Bitcoin prices.

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2️⃣ Exchanges and custody platforms
• Coinbase (COIN)
One of the most well-known cryptocurrency exchanges globally, went public directly in 2021. Revenue comes from trading fees and custody services.

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3️⃣ Blockchain infrastructure & technology providers
• Block Inc. (SQ, formerly Square)
Its Cash App allows Bitcoin trading and actively invests in the Lightning Network.
• Nvidia (NVDA)
Although not a pure cryptocurrency stock, its graphics cards are widely used in cryptocurrency mining.

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4️⃣ Web3 applications and payment integration
• PayPal (PYPL)
Allows users to directly buy, hold, and pay with cryptocurrencies.
• Robinhood (HOOD)
Although a securities platform, it allows users to trade BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies, deeply integrating with the crypto space.

✅ Conclusion: Suitable for which type of investors?
• Those who want to participate in the cryptocurrency industry but do not want to hold tokens directly
• Those who already have a stock account and are accustomed to trading U.S. stocks
• Those who want to use traditional investment tools to capture new financial trends

If you are optimistic about the future of blockchain but are concerned about the high volatility of the crypto market, "cryptocurrency concept stocks" may be the most balanced investment entry point.

#我的交易风格

🔥 Entering the Cryptocurrency World — From Liquidation to Rebirth

When I first entered the cryptocurrency market, I encountered consecutive liquidations and severe losses due to insufficient leverage use and position management. During the most challenging times, my principal shrank to only 8.5 USDT (the minimum deposit threshold for the exchange), and the psychological pressure was immense, almost leading me to give up trading.

However, it was during this low point that I deeply recognized the importance of "risk control." I began systematically studying technical analysis, capital management, and trading discipline, creating my own trading strategy.

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📈 Professional Trading Strategy — Ultra-short-term Operations Under High Leverage
• Leverage: Using 75x leverage to amplify capital efficiency while strictly controlling risks.
• Trading Cycle: Primarily focusing on ultra-short-term operations, with holding times usually not exceeding 15 minutes.
• Multi-timeframe Analysis:
• Larger Timeframes (Daily, 4H, 1H, 15min): Assessing the main market trend and consolidation patterns.
• Smaller Timeframes (5min, 1min): Looking for breakout opportunities and precise entry/exit points.
• Operational Patterns: Focusing on structural breakouts such as triangle convergence, flags, head and shoulders tops/bottoms, double tops/bottoms, etc.
• Supporting Tools: Fair Value Gap (FVG), Order Block (OB), volume, and trendline pullback confirmations to enhance trading accuracy.

Position Management:

8.5u~10u (30% Position)

10u~35u (25% Position)

35u~350u (20% Position)

350u~3500u (15% Position)

3500u~35,000u (10% Position)

35,000u~350,000u (5% Position)

350,000u~3,500,000u (1% Position)

Final Goal: 3,500,000u (Wrap it up and live a retirement life!)

‍♂️ Goal Phased — Continuously Advancing the 3,500,000 USDT Plan

I have divided the ultimate asset goal of 3,500,000 USDT into 8 phased milestones. Through target management at each stage, I constantly adjust strategies and positions to ensure stable capital growth and avoid impulsive actions that could lead to uncontrolled risks.

Currently, I have successfully completed the 7th phase and am fully focused on advancing towards 3,500,000 USDT to achieve financial freedom.

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💡 Trading Philosophy

"Calm, Observe, Judge, Be Patient, Self-Disciplined!"
Trading is not a short-term gamble; it relies on discipline, risk control, and the long-term accumulation of skills. Only by strictly adhering to a strategy can one achieve stable profits in a volatile market, realizing continuous asset growth (achieving financial freedom!!!).

$USDC

💵 USDT vs USDC: Which of the two major stablecoins is safer and more trustworthy?

In the world of cryptocurrency, stablecoins play a key role, allowing funds to avoid volatility while retaining the high efficiency of blockchain. Among them, the two most popular stablecoins are USDT (Tether) and USDC (USD Coin). They may seem similar, but in reality, there are many key differences.

🔒 Trust and Compliance Comparison

✅ USDC: A representative of compliance and transparency
• Circle collaborates with U.S. regulatory agencies to comply with U.S. regulations.
• Reserve reports are audited by accounting firms and released monthly.
• Supported by institutions like Coinbase, Visa, and Paypal.
• A major beneficiary of U.S. stablecoin regulatory legislation (such as the Genius Act).

⚠️ USDT: High liquidity but trust is questioned
• Has been questioned multiple times over the years due to lack of transparency in reserve information.
• Although it is the most circulated stablecoin, it has reached a settlement agreement with the New York Attorney General.
• Previously included high-risk assets (such as commercial paper) in its reserves, but has shifted to a more conservative approach in recent years.

💡 Summary: Stablecoins are not just 'stable', but also need to be 'transparent'

Although USDT has the highest market capitalization and trading volume, USDC performs better in transparency and regulatory compliance. In the future, as countries begin to legislate (such as the U.S. 'Genius Stablecoin Act'), compliant stablecoins like USDC may become mainstream, and investors should choose based on their own use cases and risk preferences.

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📌 Reminder: Regardless of which stablecoin you choose, be sure to regularly monitor its reserve reports and legal risks, as 'stablecoins' are not a completely risk-free cash alternative.

#GENIUS稳定币法案

🧠《Genius Stablecoin Act》Key Points Summary

The United States has recently launched the 《Genius Stablecoin Act》, aimed at regulating the stablecoin market, protecting user assets, and allowing legal stablecoins to enter the mainstream financial system.

🔑 5 Key Points:
1. Licensing Required: Stablecoin issuers must apply for permission from the government and are subject to regulation.
2. 100% Reserve: All stablecoins must be fully backed by cash or U.S. Treasury securities.
3. Ban on Fake Stablecoins: Algorithmic coins or coins without transparent reserves will be prohibited.
4. Mandatory Redeemability: Stablecoins must allow a 1:1 exchange for U.S. dollars.
5. Entry into Banking System: Compliant stablecoins can be used for cross-border payments and commercial transactions.

✅ Benefits:
• Increase trust and attract institutional participation
• Prevent a repeat of the Terra collapse incident
• Promote the digitization of the U.S. dollar

❌ Controversies:
• Restricts innovation and small projects
• Adverse to decentralization ecology