$BTC

📉 1. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Market Reactions

• CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in July is below 5%, with a general expectation for a rate cut to begin in September.

• Strong employment and inflation indicators lead the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rate policies in the short term, suppressing risk asset prices.

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💰 2. Historical Impact of Rate Cuts on Bitcoin

• In the past, such as during the 2020–2021 QE and zero interest rate period, Bitcoin surged over 200%.

• In contrast, during the 2022–2023 interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction period, it fell by 75%.

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📈 3. Current Rate Cuts as Potential Catalysts for Year-End

• Analysis indicates that a 1% rate cut could potentially drive Bitcoin up by 13%–21%, or even higher.

• If rate cuts officially start, a favorable environment will stimulate a surge in demand for risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to regain its momentum to the range of $120K–$143K.

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⏳ 4. Investment Rhythm and Key Technical Points

• If Bitcoin breaks through the resistance at $114K, there could be an opportunity to push towards $143K.

• However, if the timing of the rate cut becomes uncertain or if the Fed delays action, Bitcoin may oscillate in the range of $107K–$110K.

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🏦 5. Analysis of Mixed Factors Trends

• A strong dollar and high bond yields are likely to suppress Bitcoin in the short term.

• However, combined with increasing government bonds, inflation pressures, and ongoing large-scale ETF purchases, Bitcoin still has a foundation for medium-term growth.

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🎯 6. Operational Recommendations and Risk Management

• Short-term strategy: first observe whether the Fed's first rate cut (expected around September) materializes; if it does, timely participation in buybacks is recommended.

• Medium to long-term positioning: enter in batches; if it stabilizes in the $107K–$110K range, it can be seen as a buying opportunity.

• Risk management: set stop-loss below $105K, and pay attention to CPI data (especially in November) and employment reports, as they may determine the Fed's last rate cut action.

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✅ Summary View

If the Fed initiates rate cuts in the second half of the year, Bitcoin is likely to benefit, potentially climbing to the range of $120K–$143K. However, if rate cuts are delayed or not substantial, Bitcoin may consolidate at high levels or pull back. The key is to closely monitor the Fed's rate cut timeline, CPI/employment data, and the volume coordination after breaking key technical resistance.