$BTC

I. Current interest rate cut expectations remain uncertain

• CPI and PCE data: Although they show a trend of declining inflation, core inflation remains sticky.

• Job market: The unemployment rate has started to rise slightly, but overall wage growth has not shown significant slowing.

• Fed official statements: Keeping the possibility of rate cuts open, but clearer signals of price cooling are needed.

🔍 The latest dot plot indicates that most officials expect to initiate rate cuts as early as Q4 2025, but earlier possibilities cannot be ruled out, especially if the economy suddenly weakens.

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II. If there is a rate cut before the end of the year, what impact will it have on Bitcoin?

✅ Favorable factors:

1. Lower cost of capital → Increased attractiveness of risk assets

Rate cuts mean lower returns on cash and bonds, making it more likely for funds to flow into crypto assets, tech stocks, and gold, which are high-risk or inflation-hedging tools.

2. Weaker dollar, supportive for BTC

Rate cuts often lead to a decline in the dollar index, and Bitcoin, as a hedge against the dollar, tends to rise in this scenario.

3. Institutional buying returning

If the rate cut signal is clear, mainstream institutions like Blackstone and BlackRock might increase their allocation to Bitcoin ETFs and other products, boosting spot demand.

III. If there is no rate cut by the end of the year or it continues to be delayed, what will the impact be?

❌ Pressure factors:

1. Capital leaning towards conservatism, risk assets retreat

2. Dollar remains strong, weakening BTC's hedging appeal

3. Increased pressure on leveraged market liquidation

If inflation remains stubborn and the Fed maintains high rates until early 2026, Bitcoin may face a period of volatility and consolidation in the short to medium term, especially for those investors who entered at high levels and high-leverage traders who will face greater risks.

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IV. Conclusion: Policy turning point, also an important turning point for Bitcoin

The long-term value of Bitcoin is built on anti-inflation, asset liberalization, and decentralization, but its price trends remain extremely influenced by macro monetary policy in the short term.