$BTC

【What Does a US Attack on Iran Mean for Bitcoin?】 How will digital gold fare in the midst of war?

1. Is Bitcoin a "safe-haven asset" or a "risk asset"?

✅ Favorable Factors:

1. Gold-like Properties: Bitcoin has a limited supply, is decentralized, and is not controlled by sovereign nations, similar to "digital gold," and may be viewed as a safe haven in extreme market conditions.

2. De-dollarization Trend: If war leads to a decline in international trust in the US financial system, it may prompt some funds to shift towards Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.

3. Iran is a Major User of Cryptocurrency: If sanctions worsen, regional funds may increasingly turn to Bitcoin as a medium of exchange or a capital safe haven.

❌ Unfavorable Factors:

1. Bitcoin is still viewed as a high-volatility risk asset: If overall market risk aversion rises, funds often flow into USD, gold, and US Treasuries first, leading to outflows from the crypto market.

2. Increased Leverage Liquidation Risk: War news could trigger short-term panic, causing significant market volatility, large-scale liquidations, and liquidity crises.

2. Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin (Assuming US-Iran War)

📉 Scenario One: Short-term Decline (Market Panic)

• If the US military suddenly conducts airstrikes and oil prices soar, global funds will quickly flow back to USD and US Treasuries;

• Bitcoin may be viewed as a "high-risk asset" and experience a sharp drop.

Response Suggestion: Control leverage, pay attention to key support levels (e.g., $60,000 / $52,000), and wait for rebound opportunities after panic subsides.

⸻

📈 Scenario Two: Medium to Long-term Rise (Inflow of Digital Safe-haven Funds)

• If the conflict escalates over a prolonged period, the credibility of the USD diminishes, and regional private funds from Iran, Turkey, Lebanon, etc. shift towards cryptocurrencies;

• Institutional funds begin accumulating Bitcoin as a "non-political safe-haven asset."

Response Suggestion: Watch for trend breakthroughs (e.g., $66,000 / $70,000), any pullbacks present accumulation opportunities, and establish medium to long-term positions.

⸻

📊 Scenario Three: Volatile Consolidation, Chaotic Trends

• The market oscillates between "war panic" and "inflation trading";

• Oil and gold rise together, stock markets decline, and BTC oscillates at high levels, lacking a clear direction.

Response Suggestion: Reduce trading frequency, observe capital flows and policy trends, and wait for a clear direction.