#鲍威尔发言

🔒 Powell's Hawkish Tone Reappears: Focus on Inflation and Geopolitics

• This time, interest rates remain unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth time this year that rates have held steady. However, Powell emphasized that there will be no rush to cut rates and that more data is needed to support any decision.

• He pointed out:

"We expect a meaningful amount of inflation to arrive in the coming months,"

indicating that even without policy adjustments, there are still risks of rising inflation this summer.

• Additionally, variables such as Trump’s tariffs and conflicts in the Middle East could lead to further inflationary pressures. Powell stated that inflation is not solely driven by internal economic factors but is also "pushed by external factors."

⸻

📊 Outlook: Rate Cuts and Economic Growth Adjustments

• Although the Fed predicts that there may still be two rate cuts this year, most members have shifted to a more conservative stance, with 7 out of 19 members no longer expecting rate cuts.

• Economic models indicate that GDP growth will drop to 1.4% by 2025, with core PCE inflation rising to about 3.0–3.1%.

⸻

📉 Market Reaction: Stock and Bond Volatility, Divergent Performance in U.S. Stocks

• The general stock market experienced a brief pullback following Powell's remarks, with the Dow slightly down -0.1%, the S&P remaining flat, and the Nasdaq rising against the trend by +0.1%.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, and the yield curve adjusted, with investors leaning towards long-term bonds for hedging purposes.

⸻

🌐 Other Asset Movements: Gold and Bitcoin

• Gold has been supported by geopolitical instability and inflation expectations, with prices slightly rising.

• The cryptocurrency market may also benefit from a reallocation of assets, but if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, it could apply pressure on high-risk assets.

⸻

🧩 What Should Investors Do?

1. Short-term Strategy

• If Powell continues to emphasize inflation pressures, leading to stock market volatility, caution should be taken with cryptocurrencies and high-risk assets.

• With bond yields rising, consider allocating to both short- and long-term bonds for stability.

• Gold may be viewed as a defensive asset.

2. Medium to Long-term Layout

• If the economy continues to slow, the Fed may cut rates before the end of the year, providing opportunities for rate-sensitive assets (such as tech stocks and real estate) to rebound.

• However, the Fed will focus on data, with a tendency to stabilize markets amidst volatility, so diversifying asset allocation to spread risk is advisable.