Theodore Ri QtFv
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
1.2 Years
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Scalping and Swing Trading: A Structured Strategy with SL and TP
$BTC
I share my analyses and trading strategies on the Binance Square, not with the idea of imposing a vision, but rather to propose a rational and disciplined approach to scalping and swing trading. My goal is above all educational, and in no case do I claim to give investment advice.
Why share this approach?
In the world of trading, especially in cryptocurrencies, it is easy to see people losing money due to lack of method, or on the contrary, blindly following unrealistic predictions. Many are looking for quick gains without really understanding the tools at their disposal.
I share my analyses and trading strategies on the Binance Square, not with the idea of imposing a vision, but rather to propose a rational and disciplined approach to scalping and swing trading. My goal is above all educational, and in no case do I claim to give investment advice.
Why share this approach?
In the world of trading, especially in cryptocurrencies, it is easy to see people losing money due to lack of method, or on the contrary, blindly following unrealistic predictions. Many are looking for quick gains without really understanding the tools at their disposal.
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Major news to watch
Upcoming launch of a Trump Media ETF combining $BTC & $ETH → intensification of institutional flows
BTC and ETH options: Record OI on Deribit — 63% of BTC positions in calls (OI $36 billion), ETH skew called to 70% OI calls ($6.6 billion)
Bitcoin ETF inflows of +$408 million on June 16 (+3,870 BTC); ETH +8,400 ETH that day
FOMC today: volatility risk depending on Powell's tone (neutral or hawkish).
Whales accumulating: creation of +622 BTC wallets ≥ 10 BTC; MVRV Z-score close to the critical zone
🔍 In summary of the day
Element Overview
Sentiment Bull & altseason, with geopolitical caution
Short-term Direction Range / slight decline
Medium-term Direction Strong increase via ETF & accumulation
Key News Trump ETF, FOMC, record inflows, options OI, whales
Expected Volatility FOMC + ETF announcement.
Upcoming launch of a Trump Media ETF combining $BTC & $ETH → intensification of institutional flows
BTC and ETH options: Record OI on Deribit — 63% of BTC positions in calls (OI $36 billion), ETH skew called to 70% OI calls ($6.6 billion)
Bitcoin ETF inflows of +$408 million on June 16 (+3,870 BTC); ETH +8,400 ETH that day
FOMC today: volatility risk depending on Powell's tone (neutral or hawkish).
Whales accumulating: creation of +622 BTC wallets ≥ 10 BTC; MVRV Z-score close to the critical zone
🔍 In summary of the day
Element Overview
Sentiment Bull & altseason, with geopolitical caution
Short-term Direction Range / slight decline
Medium-term Direction Strong increase via ETF & accumulation
Key News Trump ETF, FOMC, record inflows, options OI, whales
Expected Volatility FOMC + ETF announcement.
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Text intended for experienced traders.
Crypto technical analysis – June 5, 2025 (UTC+11)
Prelude
Text intended for experienced traders; a beginner reader should have a glossary before proceeding. The levels described come from chart studies, momentum signals, and aggregated volumes on major exchanges. This analysis is not a direct recommendation to buy or sell.
Market overview
The rebound initiated on total market capitalization remains fragile. The VVIX/BTC.D ratio around 0.93 indicates a hesitant regime. Flows into spot ETFs are significantly slowing today: Invesco shows zero inflow, emphasizing short-term doubts.
Prelude
Text intended for experienced traders; a beginner reader should have a glossary before proceeding. The levels described come from chart studies, momentum signals, and aggregated volumes on major exchanges. This analysis is not a direct recommendation to buy or sell.
Market overview
The rebound initiated on total market capitalization remains fragile. The VVIX/BTC.D ratio around 0.93 indicates a hesitant regime. Flows into spot ETFs are significantly slowing today: Invesco shows zero inflow, emphasizing short-term doubts.
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Altseason or not?
Altseason is not a rallying cry; it is a multivariate market configuration that can be quantified. Let's look at the same gauges that, in May 2021, actually validated the alt cycle – and compare them to the current values (May 14, 2025).
────────────────────────────────────────
1. Capital rotation
• May 2021: ETH/BTC goes from 0.03 to 0.088 (+190%) in six weeks, signaling the risk transfer away from Bitcoin. ([Reddit][1])
────────────────────────────────────────
1. Capital rotation
• May 2021: ETH/BTC goes from 0.03 to 0.088 (+190%) in six weeks, signaling the risk transfer away from Bitcoin. ([Reddit][1])
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Cardano / ADA – Chronicle of an academic UTXO protocol facing the market test
$ADA
analysis reserved for operators who read CIP literature before opening a trade
1. Value Architecture
Cardano is not an L1 EVM-like: it is an eUTXO chain with Ouroboros Chronos consensus, where each transaction simultaneously encapsulates logic and state. Plutus V3 introduces inline data scripts, but capturing real value remains correlated with Hydra/Leios throughput. Without understanding the multi-asset fee model and UTXO memory selectivity, discussing entry timing is anecdotal.
analysis reserved for operators who read CIP literature before opening a trade
1. Value Architecture
Cardano is not an L1 EVM-like: it is an eUTXO chain with Ouroboros Chronos consensus, where each transaction simultaneously encapsulates logic and state. Plutus V3 introduces inline data scripts, but capturing real value remains correlated with Hydra/Leios throughput. Without understanding the multi-asset fee model and UTXO memory selectivity, discussing entry timing is anecdotal.
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Bittensor / TAO – dissecting cognitive bandwidth before the halving H1 2025
— reading for gamma-sensitive allocators only —
1. Value architecture
The Subtensor protocol does not issue a simple AI token: it orchestrates an *exchange as a marketplace* where each subnet (Subnet-0 → Subnet-56) quotes an inference service and where the on-chain ranking redistributes the emission proportional to measured utility. The TAO token is therefore not an 'access key', but the *quantified collateral* of a network with algorithmic yield. Failing to understand Yuma Consensus and the reliability matrix `W`, any price analysis becomes a cliché.
1. Value architecture
The Subtensor protocol does not issue a simple AI token: it orchestrates an *exchange as a marketplace* where each subnet (Subnet-0 → Subnet-56) quotes an inference service and where the on-chain ranking redistributes the emission proportional to measured utility. The TAO token is therefore not an 'access key', but the *quantified collateral* of a network with algorithmic yield. Failing to understand Yuma Consensus and the reliability matrix `W`, any price analysis becomes a cliché.
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Ethereum: Too Late to Enter or a Medium-Term Technical Catalyst?
$ETH
As it tests intermediate resistance zones after consolidating its post-Shanghai move and absorbing speculative projections related to the potential approval of a spot ETF, the question of entry opportunity becomes an exercise in micro-analysis rather than timing.
Current technical structure (D1/W1)
Ethereum is currently trading above its 100-period exponential moving average (EMA100 D1), compressing below the weekly MA200. The partial rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2021 high is not insignificant. The OBV remains divergent on the upper time frames, while the RSI shows a rebound from a neutral mid-range (45-50), leaving room for expansion towards 70 without immediate overbought.
As it tests intermediate resistance zones after consolidating its post-Shanghai move and absorbing speculative projections related to the potential approval of a spot ETF, the question of entry opportunity becomes an exercise in micro-analysis rather than timing.
Current technical structure (D1/W1)
Ethereum is currently trading above its 100-period exponential moving average (EMA100 D1), compressing below the weekly MA200. The partial rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2021 high is not insignificant. The OBV remains divergent on the upper time frames, while the RSI shows a rebound from a neutral mid-range (45-50), leaving room for expansion towards 70 without immediate overbought.
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The Mirage of Leverage: Spot, Margin, Futures
In crypto markets, three main tools are available on platforms: Spot, Margin, and Futures. Most losses do not come from volatility, but from the too-rapid use of these tools by users who do not distinguish between buying an asset and taking a position that is too risky on fragile bases.
1. Spot: the rational basis
On spot, you buy a real asset. It is in your portfolio. It cannot disappear without value, and it cannot liquidate you. Your losses are proportional to market movements. You can lose 30% if the market drops, but not 100% in 10 seconds due to a wick.
1. Spot: the rational basis
On spot, you buy a real asset. It is in your portfolio. It cannot disappear without value, and it cannot liquidate you. Your losses are proportional to market movements. You can lose 30% if the market drops, but not 100% in 10 seconds due to a wick.
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Does ETH ignite the fuse of a real alt-season?
Early rotation or true alt-season?
Over the past week, ETH has gained 13% while BTC has oscillated sideways between $101k and $104k. BTC Dominance has dropped from 65.1% to 63.9% in four sessions – the first significant decline since January. ([Coinpedia Fintech News][1]) The ETH/BTC ratio (0.056) is emerging from a multi-year floor; CryptoQuant now classifies it in an extreme undervaluation zone. ([CoinDesk][2])
Cycle indicators
• Altcoin Season Index: 54/100. It needs 75+ to validate an 'official' alt-season. ([Cointelegraph][3])
Over the past week, ETH has gained 13% while BTC has oscillated sideways between $101k and $104k. BTC Dominance has dropped from 65.1% to 63.9% in four sessions – the first significant decline since January. ([Coinpedia Fintech News][1]) The ETH/BTC ratio (0.056) is emerging from a multi-year floor; CryptoQuant now classifies it in an extreme undervaluation zone. ([CoinDesk][2])
Cycle indicators
• Altcoin Season Index: 54/100. It needs 75+ to validate an 'official' alt-season. ([Cointelegraph][3])
See original
BTC under pressure: lighten up or cash in?
Market overview
Bitcoin is consolidating around $103,000 after a nearly 10% three-day surge, with altcoins following at an equal or faster pace.([FXStreet][1]) Derivatives have responded: aggregated open interest hits an all-time high of $67.4B, while $970M of positions have already been liquidated during the bullish spike.([BeInCrypto][2])
Leverage structure
The OI-weighted funding remains stuck at 0.01%/8h, a level generally considered neutral; the market is therefore not yet in excess long despite the gross leverage.([coinglass][3]) This implies that spot players and ETF desks are absorbing part of the risk: net inflows into spot ETFs still total $3.6 billion over twenty sessions, but the first day of outflows appeared on May 6, a sign of tactical cooling.([Bitbo][4], [Blockchain News][5])
Bitcoin is consolidating around $103,000 after a nearly 10% three-day surge, with altcoins following at an equal or faster pace.([FXStreet][1]) Derivatives have responded: aggregated open interest hits an all-time high of $67.4B, while $970M of positions have already been liquidated during the bullish spike.([BeInCrypto][2])
Leverage structure
The OI-weighted funding remains stuck at 0.01%/8h, a level generally considered neutral; the market is therefore not yet in excess long despite the gross leverage.([coinglass][3]) This implies that spot players and ETF desks are absorbing part of the risk: net inflows into spot ETFs still total $3.6 billion over twenty sessions, but the first day of outflows appeared on May 6, a sign of tactical cooling.([Bitbo][4], [Blockchain News][5])
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TAO: The Cognitive Bandwidth Halving Bomb — Read this before the supply evaporates.
Bittensor/TAO – anatomy of a layer-0 asset focused on algorithmic utility extraction rather than simple value storage.
The vector for creating alpha is not mechanical rarefaction (even if the emission follows the log-arctan curve of 21M tokens, first halving planned for November 2025 / ≈block 1050000) but the capture of cognitive externalities: each subnet functions as an exchange-as-a-marketplace where miners rate a “digital commodity” – embeddings, summaries, fine-tune RLHF, etc. – and where validators score, on-chain, the marginal performance. This meta-auction exchange is orchestrated by YumaConsensus, an algorithm embedded in Subtensor: every 12 hours, the validator rating matrix is ingested, orthonormalized, then transformed into an emission distribution proportional to the measured utility likelihood – nothing to do with lazy SHA-256 pools ([Bittensor Docs][1]).
The vector for creating alpha is not mechanical rarefaction (even if the emission follows the log-arctan curve of 21M tokens, first halving planned for November 2025 / ≈block 1050000) but the capture of cognitive externalities: each subnet functions as an exchange-as-a-marketplace where miners rate a “digital commodity” – embeddings, summaries, fine-tune RLHF, etc. – and where validators score, on-chain, the marginal performance. This meta-auction exchange is orchestrated by YumaConsensus, an algorithm embedded in Subtensor: every 12 hours, the validator rating matrix is ingested, orthonormalized, then transformed into an emission distribution proportional to the measured utility likelihood – nothing to do with lazy SHA-256 pools ([Bittensor Docs][1]).
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XRP: The 'Escrow Bomb' Wall Street Fears — Read This Before $2.20 Explodes Toward $10
The move from $0.60 to over $2.20 is just a priming blip: to understand XRP's potential power curve, one must dissect not the price line, but the settlement flow architecture that the asset captures at the banking level.
XRP is a zero-sum issuance bridge asset: total supply fixed at 100G, 46.5G actually in circulation, the rest in calendar escrow (1G released each month, unsold balance re-escrowed). This mechanism neutralizes net dilution provided that on-chain volume absorbs fresh supply; in practice, ODL (On-DemandLiquidity) consumed 58% of escrow outflows over 2024 and 2025Q1, pushing Ripple to abandon quarterly “Markets” reporting for a more granular institutional model – an indication that off-screen demand is already taking over from retail books ([CoinDesk][1]).
XRP is a zero-sum issuance bridge asset: total supply fixed at 100G, 46.5G actually in circulation, the rest in calendar escrow (1G released each month, unsold balance re-escrowed). This mechanism neutralizes net dilution provided that on-chain volume absorbs fresh supply; in practice, ODL (On-DemandLiquidity) consumed 58% of escrow outflows over 2024 and 2025Q1, pushing Ripple to abandon quarterly “Markets” reporting for a more granular institutional model – an indication that off-screen demand is already taking over from retail books ([CoinDesk][1]).
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6 divergences ≈ 6 explosions BTC: the weekly index prohibits Wall Street from hiding you.
GENESIS OF BITCOIN'S WEEKLY BULLISH DIVERGENCES (2015-2025)
–– A reading protocol for quantitatively acculturated traders ––
Unlike intraday signals, which are often drowned in noise, the weekly divergence (price trough ↘/oscillator trough ↗) constitutes a rare macro-technical catalyst: barely six clear occurrences in ten years, but a directional materialization rate close to 100%. Below, a condensed chronological reminder – the percentages are calculated on the four-candle close after the signal, then on the cycle peak.
–– A reading protocol for quantitatively acculturated traders ––
Unlike intraday signals, which are often drowned in noise, the weekly divergence (price trough ↘/oscillator trough ↗) constitutes a rare macro-technical catalyst: barely six clear occurrences in ten years, but a directional materialization rate close to 100%. Below, a condensed chronological reminder – the percentages are calculated on the four-candle close after the signal, then on the cycle peak.
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BEIGE BOOK, FED & ALT-SEASON 2025
BEIGE BOOK, FED & ALT-SEASON 2025
The full point on crypto risks and opportunities
Last updated: April 23, 2025 – 13:40 (New Caledonia)
Warning: This is not financial advice.
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
KEY FED CALENDAR
Date (NC) Event Potential impact
April 24 05:00 Beige Book Economic sentiment US
The full point on crypto risks and opportunities
Last updated: April 23, 2025 – 13:40 (New Caledonia)
Warning: This is not financial advice.
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
KEY FED CALENDAR
Date (NC) Event Potential impact
April 24 05:00 Beige Book Economic sentiment US
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Double Stop-Loss: A Strategic Approach to Secure and Optimize Position Entries
In the world of advanced trading, risk management is a key skill that separates professional traders from amateurs. While stop-loss (SL) is a fundamental measure to secure a position, using a double SL allows for a more dynamic and responsive approach to market conditions. This article explores the concept of the double SL, its usefulness, and its implementation in advanced trading scenarios.
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1. Why a Double Stop-Loss?
The market moves in a non-linear manner, with trend and consolidation phases interspersed with liquidity manipulations. A single static SL exposes the trader to two major risks:
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DOGE/USDC: Current Trend and Trade Management Strategy
$DOGE
The DOGE/USDC market is showing relative stagnation after three days in a short position. In this article, we will check whether this approach remains relevant and adapt our strategy.
---
1. Analysis of the current trend
Current price: 0.24678 USDC
Variation 24h : +2.62%
High/Low 24h: 0.24782 / 0.23411
Moving Averages:
- MA(7): 0.25300 (short term)
- MA(25): 0.26846 (medium term)
- MA(99) : 0.34645 (long terme)
Technical indicators:
- RSI (6): 37.22 (near the oversold zone)
The DOGE/USDC market is showing relative stagnation after three days in a short position. In this article, we will check whether this approach remains relevant and adapt our strategy.
---
1. Analysis of the current trend
Current price: 0.24678 USDC
Variation 24h : +2.62%
High/Low 24h: 0.24782 / 0.23411
Moving Averages:
- MA(7): 0.25300 (short term)
- MA(25): 0.26846 (medium term)
- MA(99) : 0.34645 (long terme)
Technical indicators:
- RSI (6): 37.22 (near the oversold zone)
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ENA/USDC Analysis
1. ENA/USDC
2. Current trend
Prix : 0.4776 USDC
24-hour variation: +18.07%
24h high: 0.4778
24h low: 0.4020
24h Volume (ENA) : ~23.92 Million
24h Volume (USDC) : ~10.56 Million
The market is showing a clear rebound from the 0.3859-0.40 zone, with a double-digit increase. However, we remain in a bearish context in the medium to long term if we look at the recent past (the price remains below certain key averages).
3. Moving Averages
- MA(7): 0.4404 → the price remains above
2. Current trend
Prix : 0.4776 USDC
24-hour variation: +18.07%
24h high: 0.4778
24h low: 0.4020
24h Volume (ENA) : ~23.92 Million
24h Volume (USDC) : ~10.56 Million
The market is showing a clear rebound from the 0.3859-0.40 zone, with a double-digit increase. However, we remain in a bearish context in the medium to long term if we look at the recent past (the price remains below certain key averages).
3. Moving Averages
- MA(7): 0.4404 → the price remains above
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Bollinger Bands (BOLL), created by John Bollinger, are a technical indicator designed to measure the volatility of an asset and identify potentially "high" or "low" areas on a chart.
1) Composition
- A simple moving average (SMA), usually with a period of 20.
- Two bands: one above the moving average (Upper Band) and one below it (Lower Band). These bands are often located two standard deviations from the SMA, which allows them to automatically adapt to market volatility.
2) Interpretation
- When the bands come together (Bollinger Band Squeeze), this suggests a decrease in volatility. A marked price movement can then occur as the bands start to spread apart again. - When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, the asset is sometimes considered to be in the "high zone" (be careful, however, in a strongly bullish market, prices can remain near this band for a long time).
- When the price approaches or falls below the lower band, it is called a "low zone" (same warning if the market is very bearish).
3) Practical use
- Bollinger Bands are often used in addition to other indicators (RSI, MACD, volumes, etc.) to confirm a potential reversal or identify the strength of a trend.
- Traders can also spot "break out" signals when the price clearly crosses one of the bands, which can mark the start of a more pronounced dynamic.
In summary, Bollinger Bands (BOLL) offer a dynamic visualization of volatility and make it possible to assess whether an asset is potentially in an overbought or oversold zone. However, it is best not to base your entire trading strategy solely on this indicator and to always compare your results with other technical or fundamental analyses.
1) Composition
- A simple moving average (SMA), usually with a period of 20.
- Two bands: one above the moving average (Upper Band) and one below it (Lower Band). These bands are often located two standard deviations from the SMA, which allows them to automatically adapt to market volatility.
2) Interpretation
- When the bands come together (Bollinger Band Squeeze), this suggests a decrease in volatility. A marked price movement can then occur as the bands start to spread apart again. - When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, the asset is sometimes considered to be in the "high zone" (be careful, however, in a strongly bullish market, prices can remain near this band for a long time).
- When the price approaches or falls below the lower band, it is called a "low zone" (same warning if the market is very bearish).
3) Practical use
- Bollinger Bands are often used in addition to other indicators (RSI, MACD, volumes, etc.) to confirm a potential reversal or identify the strength of a trend.
- Traders can also spot "break out" signals when the price clearly crosses one of the bands, which can mark the start of a more pronounced dynamic.
In summary, Bollinger Bands (BOLL) offer a dynamic visualization of volatility and make it possible to assess whether an asset is potentially in an overbought or oversold zone. However, it is best not to base your entire trading strategy solely on this indicator and to always compare your results with other technical or fundamental analyses.
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The Stoch RSI (Stochastic RSI) is a technical indicator that combines the concept of the stochastic oscillator and that of the RSI (Relative Strength Index). Rather than applying the stochastic formula directly to the price, it is applied here to the RSI values.
The Stoch RSI generally oscillates between 0 and 1 (or sometimes expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100). The closer it is to 1, the more we think that the asset is in the overbought zone, and conversely, the closer it is to 0, the more the asset is in the oversold zone.
Its calculation is based on the position of the current RSI in relation to its high and low range over a specific period (often 14 periods).
- When the Stoch RSI is greater than 0.80, we speak of an overbought zone.
- When it is less than 0.20, we speak of an oversold zone.
Crossover signals are also taken into account. We observe the moment when the Stoch RSI curve crosses above or below certain limits (for example 0.20 or 0.80) to detect changes in momentum. Divergences between the Stoch RSI and the price can also warn of a possible reversal.
Like any indicator, it is recommended to use the Stoch RSI with other tools (moving averages, supports and resistances, volume analysis, etc.) to obtain a more precise view of the trend and confirm trading signals.
The Stoch RSI generally oscillates between 0 and 1 (or sometimes expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100). The closer it is to 1, the more we think that the asset is in the overbought zone, and conversely, the closer it is to 0, the more the asset is in the oversold zone.
Its calculation is based on the position of the current RSI in relation to its high and low range over a specific period (often 14 periods).
- When the Stoch RSI is greater than 0.80, we speak of an overbought zone.
- When it is less than 0.20, we speak of an oversold zone.
Crossover signals are also taken into account. We observe the moment when the Stoch RSI curve crosses above or below certain limits (for example 0.20 or 0.80) to detect changes in momentum. Divergences between the Stoch RSI and the price can also warn of a possible reversal.
Like any indicator, it is recommended to use the Stoch RSI with other tools (moving averages, supports and resistances, volume analysis, etc.) to obtain a more precise view of the trend and confirm trading signals.
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