BEIGE BOOK, FED & ALT-SEASON 2025
The full point on crypto risks and opportunities
Last updated: April 23, 2025 – 13:40 (New Caledonia)
Warning: This is not financial advice.
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KEY FED CALENDAR
Date (NC) Event Potential impact
April 24 05:00 Beige Book Economic sentiment US
May 08 05:00 FOMC + press conference Rate decision
⏳ Timer: ~ 15 hours before the Beige Book release
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WHY BITCOIN IS SOARING
• Record inflows into spot BTC ETFs
• Betting on a Fed pivot despite stubborn inflation
• Short squeeze: neutral/negative funding → violent rebound
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ALT-SEASON: ARE WE REALLY IN 2021?
Indicator April 2025 2021 (alt-season)
BTC Dominance ≈ 64% 40 – 45%
Altcoin Season Index 18 / 100 > 90 / 100
ETH/BTC Ratio 0.018-0.019 ≃ 0.08
Altcoin funding Neutral/negative Strongly positive
Verdict: the conditions of 2021 are not met; caution before shouting 'alt-season'.
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RISK/REWARD STRATEGY
OPTION A – TIGHT STOPS
1. BTC: stop 6-8% below the last H4 low
2. ETH / SOL: stop 10-12%
3. Small-caps & memecoins: reduced position + stop 15-20%
OPTION B – LET IT RUN (IF)
• BTC Dominance < 58%
• ETH/BTC > 0.022
• Altcoin Season Index > 40
• Clear dovish macro signal (Fed or inflation)
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GLOBAL SENTIMENT (-5 ➜ +5)
Macro Fed -1
Institutional flows +2
BTC Technical +1
Altcoin technicals -2
Derivatives -1
Aggregate score -1 → Bitcoin > Altcoins
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POINTS OF VIGILANCE
• Beige Book (April 24): 'hawkish' tone? → correction risk
• PCE (April 25): inflation surprise?
• FOMC (May 8): any reference to 'higher for longer' rates
would hit altcoins first.
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CONCLUSION
As long as Bitcoin dominates and the Fed does not ease its policy, consider
the altcoin rally as a possible bull trap.
Manage your stops, watch the dominance and prepare: the real alt-season
often starts when no one believes in it anymore.
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Good management, and stay cautious!
