As it tests intermediate resistance zones after consolidating its post-Shanghai move and absorbing speculative projections related to the potential approval of a spot ETF, the question of entry opportunity becomes an exercise in micro-analysis rather than timing.
Current technical structure (D1/W1)
Ethereum is currently trading above its 100-period exponential moving average (EMA100 D1), compressing below the weekly MA200. The partial rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2021 high is not insignificant. The OBV remains divergent on the upper time frames, while the RSI shows a rebound from a neutral mid-range (45-50), leaving room for expansion towards 70 without immediate overbought.
Momentum & Volatility Data
The MACD crossover is bullish, but the histogram is hesitant. The daily Stochastic RSI has entered a bullish cycle but is already approaching saturation levels. This signals a short entry window, in a context where the ADX remains weak: the trend is not confirmed but could be driven by BTC-to-ALT liquidity.
Fundamental Narrative: A Silent Pivot
Ethereum's growing integration into institutional frameworks via L2 (Arbitrum, Base, Optimism), restaking (Eigenlayer), and tokenization of real assets (RWA) support a fundamental floor. However, this is not immediately reflected in price without external catalysts (ETFs, Pectra upgrades, etc.).
The potential trigger
If BTC.D declines below the 52-53% zone and ETH/BTC breaks its descending trendline dating back to December 2023, a sector rotation towards ETH and its L2s is highly likely. This configuration would validate a phase II of the cycle for Ethereum, distinct from the Bitcoin cycle.
Strategic conclusion
→ No, it’s not too late.
→ But entering the market requires a sufficient level of skill to avoid confusing consolidation, rotation and breakout.
→ For the uninitiated: DCA only.
→ For experienced users: swing setup with stop below 0.382 Fib (i.e. 2,900), partial target at 3,800, possible extension at 4,600 upon ETF validation.
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