GENESIS OF BITCOIN'S WEEKLY BULLISH DIVERGENCES (2015-2025)

–– A reading protocol for quantitatively acculturated traders ––

Unlike intraday signals, which are often drowned in noise, the weekly divergence (price trough ↘/oscillator trough ↗) constitutes a rare macro-technical catalyst: barely six clear occurrences in ten years, but a directional materialization rate close to 100%. Below, a condensed chronological reminder – the percentages are calculated on the four-candle close after the signal, then on the cycle peak.

1. January 12, 2015 | MACD histogram + bullish divergence lines towards $170

+60% in 4 weeks, then +2800% up to $20,000 (Dec. 2017).

2. December 17, 2018 | RSI & MFI diverge at $3200

+35% in 4 weeks, local peak 13900$ (June 2019) without ATH.

3. March 9, 2020 | Black Thursday: RSI weekly >30 as price capitulates at $3,800

+80% in 4 weeks, then +1600% up to $64,900 (April 2021).

4. July 19, 2021 | Triple-drive RSI at $29,800

+35% in 4 weeks, new zenith $69,000 (Nov. 2021).

5. November 14, 2022 | Post-FTX: Classic RSI divergence, MACD pre-crossing around 15,500

+25% in 4 weeks, extension up to $73,700 (March 2024), an ATH.

6. March 10, 2025 | RSI + MACD in double divergence at $76,000 (drawdown –30% from the peak of 109k)

+12% in 4 weeks, recovery >100k on May 8 without exceeding the ATH of January 2025. ([CoinDesk][1])

STATISTICAL READING

– Over ten years, **no** weekly divergence has been followed by an immediate drawdown greater than the signal (the technical low therefore serves as a natural stop).

– 4 out of 6 ultimately end in an all-time high, sometimes after a 12-18 month repricing; latency depends on the overall liquidity regime (QE2015-17, post-Covid easing, ETF2024 inflows, etc.).

– The average slope over four weeks post-signal comes out at +40%, standard deviation 23%: positive but volatile edge – hence the importance of gamma-neutral money management.

THEORETICAL MECHANISM

The weekly divergence looks like an “exhaustion z-score”:

•Capitulation windows where margined sellers are bought out by pas-de-cade (OTC whales, ETF spot, CME desk).

•Compression of open-interest futures→increase in basis→spot redelivery, feeding a price ↗/collat ​​↗ reflex loop.

•On-chain co-integration: the realized price goes back above the market price exactly during the 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022 troughs – never on false intraday signals.

OPERATIONAL PROTOCOLIZATION

1. Filter through an inertial oscillator (Stoch‑RSI14/7/1) to avoid 'hollow' divergences.

2. Require a spot volume recovery >52-week median and funding ≤+5bps.

3. Trigger at the weekly close only if the price–realized spread ≥–1σ, in order to avoid technical rallies like summer 2019.

4. Dynamic stop: last low wick –2ATR(14W).

5. Progressive take-profit on the 1,618 Fibonacci band of the previous swing, then partial rolling into delta-covered options; convexity pays off the latent drift to a new ATH.

LIMITS

An overbought (hidden bullish) divergence in an uptrend can also form without a sufficient dip to offer an optimal reward/risk ratio. The March 2025 event illustrates this case: valid signal but repricing constrained by the macro context (US tariffs, delayed Fed cut), delaying the breakout beyond 109k.

CONCLUSION

On the weekly axis, bullish divergence isn't the infallible oracle that newbies imagine, but its track record—six signals, six rallies, four ATHs—positions it as one of the few truly actionable indicators on Bitcoin when combined with a liquidity filter and an optional risk management plan. A reader unfamiliar with flow metrics will likely need to decode realized cap, CDD, and gamma distribution before trading: that's precisely the point—to separate the noise from the quanta. (This text constitutes market analysis, not an investment recommendation.)