Market overview
Bitcoin is consolidating around $103,000 after a nearly 10% three-day surge, with altcoins following at an equal or faster pace.([FXStreet][1]) Derivatives have responded: aggregated open interest hits an all-time high of $67.4B, while $970M of positions have already been liquidated during the bullish spike.([BeInCrypto][2])
Leverage structure
The OI-weighted funding remains stuck at 0.01%/8h, a level generally considered neutral; the market is therefore not yet in excess long despite the gross leverage.([coinglass][3]) This implies that spot players and ETF desks are absorbing part of the risk: net inflows into spot ETFs still total $3.6 billion over twenty sessions, but the first day of outflows appeared on May 6, a sign of tactical cooling.([Bitbo][4], [Blockchain News][5])
Bullish points
– institutional flows still positive over three weeks, a guarantee of a buyer bid below the market;
– strong technical momentum but daily RSI below the extreme zone;
– macro environment ready for monetary pivot, vector of reallocation towards fixed supply assets.
Bearish points
– historical leverage: record open contracts + liquidation streaks → vulnerability to a long-squeeze if BTC closes below $100k;
– 104-105k area = 1,618 extension of the previous wave, suitable for algorithmic profit taking;
– post-halving phase often lateral: derivatives are already priced +18% since the event, without a clear purge.
Decision framework for x2 positions
1. Daily closing below $100k: immediately reduce the nominal to return to a leverage ≤1.3.
2. Pull-back 95–97k on decreasing volume: reload the light third.
3. Break validated $105k with spot volume >$15B and funding ≤0.02%: let run, trailing stop $101k.
4. Break 88k\$ (M200 daily): close 70% of the remainder and transfer exposure to long 2026 calls.
Synthetic reading
As long as funding remains moderate and $100k holds at closing, the bias remains bullish. The major risk is not an instant collapse but a rapid 8-12% squeeze triggered by the swarm of leveraged positions. Deflating a third of the nominal before the weekend guarantees liquidity to buy back the next tranche without sacrificing directional exposure. The opportunity cost is limited if the market moves straight; execution serenity is always bought before the storm.
Purely informative analysis; adjusted to each person’s risk profile.