Early rotation or true alt-season?

Over the past week, ETH has gained 13% while BTC has oscillated sideways between $101k and $104k. BTC Dominance has dropped from 65.1% to 63.9% in four sessions – the first significant decline since January. ([Coinpedia Fintech News][1]) The ETH/BTC ratio (0.056) is emerging from a multi-year floor; CryptoQuant now classifies it in an extreme undervaluation zone. ([CoinDesk][2])

Cycle indicators

• Altcoin Season Index: 54/100. It needs 75+ to validate an 'official' alt-season. ([Cointelegraph][3])

• % of the top 50 alts beating BTC over 90 days: 61%. Similarly, the threshold of 75% has not been reached.

• Total3 market capitalization (excluding BTC/ETH) still struggles below $1.28T, resistance from March 2024.

What history says

2017: BTC phase → ETH/BTC goes from 0.023 to 0.115 (+400%) → mid-caps explode thirty days later.

2021: BTC Q4 2020, ETH/BTC surpasses 0.05 in January 2021, full alt-season by mid-February.

Recurring pattern: the ETH rally precedes the diffusion to the rest of the market by four to six weeks. ([CoinMarketCap][4])

Bullish points for a real rotation

– Average ETH gas > 65 gwei for ten days; DeFi/NFT revival often precedes a rush to L2.

– Bitcoin ETF flows stabilizing: less capital suction on BTC, free risk budget for alts.

– AI narratives (ASI) and RWA tokenization are already boosting SOL, RNDR, ONDO: typical micro-bulls sectoral signs of an alt-season beginning. ([Cointelegraph][5])

Structural brakes

– ETH has not yet regained 0.07 BTC (historical pivot of rotations).

– Staked ETH Netflow remains negative: unlocks post-pectra exceed new deposits, thus float pressure. ([MarketWatch][6])

– The perpetual funding on SOL, DOGE, and PEPE is already ≥ 0.07%/8h; a sign of short-pull speculation.

Professional reading

We are in a **pre-rotation** phase: BTC consolidates after halving, the ETH/BTC arbitrage attracts agile capital, and a few mid-caps ride on narratives. To speak of a formal alt-season, we still lack:

1. a weekly close ETH/BTC > 0.07,

2. an Altseason Index > 75 for ≥ 3 weeks,

3. a Total3 breakout beyond $1.35T with spot volume ≥ $40G.

Tactic

Maintain the BTC core, but tactically reallocate 10-15% towards ETH and large-caps with clear catalysts (SOL, L2, RWA) with tight stops. The confirmation of the rotation will then signal to extend exposure to mid-caps. Until proven otherwise, ETH is just catching up on a cyclical delay; the true alt-season still requires the relative capitulation of Bitcoin Dominance below 60%.

Informational analysis; calibrate according to each individual's risk tolerance.