北漂交易员

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.
Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.
Who is buying? Who is selling? ——This question should be something we should always think about. The trend of technical graphics corresponds to the answer to this question. This is related to the group psychological factors behind the trends of different technical graphics, and is also the basis of technical analysis. Why do some graph forms have high accuracy while others have low accuracy? Because some graphics do not have strong psychological support (such as triangles, flags, wedges). The most effective patterns are double bottoms/tops, rectangles, and head and shoulders bottoms/necks because there are clear psychological reasons behind them.

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.
Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.
Happy holidays, my friends. Time flies by, and almost a month has passed since the last time I shared my market views with you. In the general direction, the view has not changed much, but with the recent rebound in the market, some adjustments have been made in details.
In the article on September 1st, Beidiao shared a picture, as follows:

Judging from the recent market trends, the rebound from 9.11 can be regarded as the 2-wave rebound in the picture above. There has been a complete ABC rebound, and there is little chance of a new high in the future. In other words, the prerequisite for a new high is to break through 2.8w:

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

The market has been fluctuating for nearly a month since hitting a new low on August 17. The daily closing line has remained above 2.55w, which is around 38.2% of Fibonacci. But recent signs indicate that the start of a new round of market conditions is not far away.

The picture below shows the holdings of the USDT perpetual contract of Big Pie. The low point of the holdings was on 8.25, and the lowest price was also 2.58w. The current price is near the lowest price on 8.25, but the contract holdings increased by more than 14%, and the contract funds increased again. Entering the game provides the basis for choosing a direction.

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

People who are new to martial arts always want to practice an invincible move, kill the enemy with one move, and win every battle. However, after practicing, I realized that without the support of strong internal strength, invincible moves are impossible, and internal strength comes from internal skills and mental methods. Therefore, in martial arts novels, there is never a specific move that is the best in the world, only a skill that is the best in the world.

"Memoirs of a Great Stock Operator" is one of the classic books for traders. The book does not contain any specific moves. It is all about trading concepts, that is, internal skills and mental methods for trading. The same is true for the "Selected Works of Mao Zedong" that Beidiao was reading recently. One of the articles was "Strategic Issues in China's Revolutionary War", which was very touching after reading it. Trading is a war in itself. Therefore, some of the concepts about war in Mao’s Selections are undoubtedly applicable to trading, and they are internal skills worth reading again and again. The following are some of the fragments. I originally planned to attach some of my own opinions, but later I thought it might have a negative effect, so this article is just an excerpt to share:

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

The centralized review of ETFs has been postponed again to October 16th, and the short-term market is not good. The short-term stimulation brought by the news of Grayscale's victory in the lawsuit caused the currency price to rebound to 2.81w, and was finally blocked below the 120-day line. This rebound can also be regarded as a breakout, and it did not stand back to the 120-day trend line. It can be seen as a re-confirmation of the effective position breaking.

In the article on August 18, Beidiao’s view is that the rebound will not exceed 2.85. At present, the trend is within expectations. Beidiao's personal view is still bearish on the follow-up - that is, the direction choice after the shock is still downward. Judging from the weekly K, MACD has crossed at the weekly level, and the columnar line shows a head and shoulders pattern. This is definitely not a bullish sign.

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

Early this morning, I washed my face at the long-lost waterfall. After the BTC price fell below the trend line, it fell directly to the second support position mentioned in yesterday's article with lightning speed - that is, around the previous low of 2.50,000 in June.

BTC’s perpetual contract has also experienced the phenomenon mentioned by North Drift in the article yesterday. While trading volume has increased, contract positions have also significantly decreased. This shows that during the decline this morning, funds were withdrawn from the contract market (liquidation + active exit). When this happens, it generally means that the short-term downward trend has ended (for the short term only).

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

Looking at BTC’s daily chart, it has fallen below the uptrend line it had been holding since the end of last year. This is the first time in more than eight months that the daily level has closed below. At the same time, the price once again reached near the 120-day moving average, temporarily receiving support.

The importance of a trend line is generally judged from two perspectives:

1. Time: The longer the support time of the trend line, the more important it is. The 3-month trend line is obviously much stronger in market guidance than the 3-day trend line.

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

Hello friends, the last time I posted my opinion was at the end of June, and more than a month has passed in a flash. From mid-July to the present, BTC has shown a fluctuating decline, but the overall amplitude is still relatively small, only about 10%. It is worth noting that the recent market has once again reached a critical point.

The black trend line in the figure is the support line for this round of rise. Since December 30 last year, the daily closing line has never been effectively broken below. The price is currently near the support line, and the trend support line basically coincides with the 120-day line. The price is around 2.85w. This is also close to the 28.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, this price is obviously the most critical dividing point in the near future.

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

Time flies, half a year has passed. In a recent article, Beidiao's view is that short selling and bargain hunting are not considered if the price is below the 120-day line. At that time, Beidiao believed that the downward trend had been confirmed, but later the market pulled back again with lightning speed and reached a new high. I think there are many friends who did not react and missed this wave of market trends.

If you miss it, you miss it, there is no need to regret. Looking back at the market situation in the first half of the year, the nearly doubled increase from 1.6w to 3.15w at the beginning of the year is mainly divided into three segments, and each segment of increase is basically completed in about one week. Short and fast, the rest of the time is all shock, shock, shock. During this period, other small currencies basically did not follow suit, and the highs of many currencies stopped in February.

This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.

Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

The article on June 6th warned that BTC should leave the market if it fell below the 120-day line. However, the short-term trend later turned out to be disgusting, and there were several more days of shock around the 120-day line. But in the end, after the 9th, it never reached the 120-day line again.

Looking at it today, BTC has fallen below:

1. The green wedge-shaped accumulation interval in the picture can be regarded as forming a head interval;

2. It fell below the 200-week line;