This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you act on it, you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
Beijing-based traders: on-chain data users, trend traders.
This morning, the long-lost waterfall washed our face. After the BTC price broke the trend line, it fell directly to the second support position mentioned in yesterday's article at lightning speed, which was the previous low of 2.5w in June.
BTC’s perpetual contract has also experienced the phenomenon mentioned by North Drift in the article yesterday. While trading volume has increased, contract positions have also significantly decreased. This shows that during the decline this morning, funds were withdrawn from the contract market (liquidation + active exit). When this happens, it generally means that the short-term downward trend has ended (for the short term only).
Next, the more likely direction of the market evolution is - oscillation, forming a new oscillation range. You can compare the trends of the two falling markets at the top at the end of 2021. The difference between the two is only the difference in the amplitude and time of the oscillation. The needle of the K-line during the decline this morning must be covered. There is a blank area for buyers. Basically, the price is pulled up by the short covering after the liquidation, and no actual buying demand has been formed. Therefore, the price will fall back to the previous low to test the actual purchasing power.
As for the high point of the rebound, I personally estimate that it will not exceed 2.85w. It may also stop at 2.7w+. This is the resistance position formed by multiple moving averages, 200-day line + 200-week line + 3D level 200-day line, the price is around 2.74w.
If the price moves sideways as expected, wait until a clear price pattern emerges before making further plans.
In the short term, the key support level is still around 25,000. If it falls below this level, it will be the beginning of a new downward trend. The next target level will be around the previous low of 20,000 in March.
Beipiao believes that the market is more likely to develop horizontally in the future. The possibility of the market turning up directly is relatively small. Even if it is to rise again, we will first see a process of oscillation and accumulation, and then choose a direction. At the same time, during the accumulation process, the contract position will also increase to a certain extent. In short, after a wave of market this morning, everyone should be more content, do less short-term, give it time to digest the shock, and don't take action until the critical position.
ETH's volatility has always been relatively large, and this morning's spike was significantly greater than that of BTC. But overall, still moving inside the triangle. Be cautious when it falls below 1620 again.
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