This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you act on it, you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
Beijing-based traders: on-chain data users, trend traders.
Happy holidays, everyone. Time flies, and it has been almost a month since I last shared my views on the market with you. In the big picture, my views have not changed much, but with the recent rebound in the market, I have made some adjustments in the details.
In the article on September 1, Beipiao shared a picture as follows:
Combined with the recent market trend, the rebound since September 11 can be regarded as the 2nd wave rebound mentioned in the above figure. At present, a complete ABC rebound has been completed, and the probability of a new high in the future is not high. In other words, the premise of a new high is to break through 2.8w:
On October 2, the short-term upward pin reached 2.86w, and then fell back quickly. The subsequent daily closing lines were all below the 120-day line. Looking back at the short-term K-line, many currencies’ high points in the morning of October 2 were basically pulled up quickly within 1-3 minutes, and the high points were all generated after the short burst. This kind of pull-up itself is not a normal and healthy upward trend. Therefore, Beipiao believes that even if the current price breaks through the black downward trend line in the above figure, it does not constitute a reversal of the market for the time being. Beipiao mentioned in the previous article that the breakthrough of the downward trend line does not mean an immediate rise, but only represents the end of the previous downward trend. Around 2.8w, it is the 120-day + 200-day + 200-week + Fibonacci key point. As long as it cannot break through here, it will not constitute a reversal. As for the judgment of effective breakthrough, Beipiao has mentioned his own judgment method in the article before. The judgment method of breaking down and breaking through is the same. For upward breakthrough, one more item is needed-the increase in trading volume.
BTC has the possibility of a potential head and shoulders top trend, which mainly depends on when it can break below the previous low of around 2.48w. Once it breaks below, it will be around 2w.
For ETH, the recent rebound can also be seen as a confirmation of the pullback after breaking the orange rising trend line, and it did not return to the trend line in the end. Therefore, like BTC, ETH remains bearish.
In summary, the Beijing Drifters have not changed their original views. The key positions above BTC (near 2.8w) and below BTC (near 2.5w) have not changed. Just wait for the market to change. There are too many fake moves in the bear market. It doesn't matter if you wait for two more days. If the real bull market comes, is there still a little increase at the beginning? It's not too late to join after it effectively breaks through 2.8w. Similarly, when it falls below 2.5w again, shorting is also an opportunity provided by the chart.
Comparing the weekly trend of the US stock market with the micro-strategy, the big trend seems to be easier to distinguish. The weekly MACD has crossed again, which can be seen as the beginning of a new downward trend:
Looking at the long-term chart of ETH, it is also quite obvious that Beipiao used a line chart with weekly closing. The whole chart looks quite standard. It has been in an upward channel since June last year. If the channel falls below, the whole will become a falling flag:
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