This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you act on it, you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
Beijing-based traders: on-chain data users, trend traders.
Time flies, and half a year has passed. In a recent article, Beipiao's point of view is that below the 120-day line, short selling and bottom fishing are not considered. At that time, Beipiao believed that the downward trend had been determined, but later the market pulled back again at lightning speed and hit a new high. I think many friends did not react and missed this wave of market.
If you miss it, you miss it. There is no need to regret it. Looking back at the market in the first half of the year, the nearly doubled increase from 16,000 to 31,500 at the beginning of the year can be divided into three stages, and each stage of increase was completed in about one week. It was short and fast, and the rest of the time was all oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation. During this period, other small currencies basically did not follow the rise, and the highs of many currencies stopped in February.
This is obviously different from the way the bull market rises. Therefore, Beijing Drifters still insist that this is a typical bear market rebound, and it is a game of existing funds. Don't expect the arrival of a big bull market, it doesn't exist.
Judging from the current trading plan of Beipiao, for the currency holding part, there are only two closing positions at the 120-day line and around 35,000, and they will choose to hold in the middle. At present, the 120-day line has reached around 27,300, and will continue to rise in the future.
3.5w is the corresponding target position of the weekly head and shoulders top, and it is also the position of the 120-week weekly line. Therefore, if it falls to the 120-day line or goes up to around 3.5w, it is the selling position of the North Drifters. The rest of the time, it is still mainly to hold the currency. If it falls back, just treat it as a roller coaster. This is the trend trading strategy, and it must be endured.
I will not consider shorting at the top for the time being. It is too difficult under this kind of market conditions. I personally think that touching the top is mostly a matter of luck.
Recently, we can also see that small coins have gradually started to dance like a demon. All those with some good news have started to rise rapidly. These coins that have risen due to good news are the ones that can be mainly shorted later. In the next 1-2 years, many coins are destined to return to zero. Many old coins since 2017 have no other meaning except "cutting".
The contract holdings of BTC have reached a new high in the past year. Regardless of whether it is long or short, there is enough fuel. From the perspective of open interest, the price has increased incrementally, so there is no problem in continuing to hold. If it continues to rise, it will be the last wave. When the price reaches a new high and the position drops significantly, it will be the top. If the price weakens, just focus on the area near the 120-day line.
Finally, let's take a look at the proportion of smart money on the chain holding U. Currently, it is around 13%, which is already the lowest in the past year. If the proportion of holding U continues to decline, especially to between 5-10% (the bullish power is almost exhausted, and there are no more bulls), it is basically the head range. (The data can be followed on Twitter @CoinAxiom, which will be updated daily).
Now, both bullish and bearish views can find corresponding reasons, so it is difficult to say for sure whether the market will rise or fall in the short term. We can only extend the evaluation period. At the current price, it is recommended that those who have coins continue to hold coins; if there are no coins, I personally think it is best to go short. The short-term key position is 29,500, and the profit and loss ratio of buying at the current price is very average.
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