This article is only my personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.
Beidiao Trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.
The article on June 6th warned that BTC should leave the market if it fell below the 120-day line. However, the short-term trend later turned out to be disgusting, and there were several more days of shock around the 120-day line. But in the end, after the 9th, it never reached the 120-day line again.
Looking at it today, BTC has fallen below:
1. The green wedge-shaped accumulation interval in the picture can be regarded as forming a head interval;
2. It fell below the 200-week line;
3. It fell below the neckline position of the purple weekly level head and shoulders bottom; from a morphological point of view, the 3.5w+ position is no longer visible, and the last hope is gone.
Beidiao's current view is not to rush to buy the bottom, it is best not to have the idea of buying the bottom (purely from Beidiao's personal trading perspective). Looking up, don’t rush to buy until it returns to the 120-day line. Looking down, the 200-day line is only suitable for buying with a small stop loss.
The characteristics of this year’s bear market rebound are too obvious. In the more than 170 days in the first half of the year, the real upward trend was only about 20 days, and the rest were all shocks. This is not the way to go in a bull market. Therefore, we still maintain our original judgment of a bear market rebound. As for the big B wave that has been mentioned before, if it cannot return above the 120-day line, it will be regarded as over.
The trend of ETH is also very pessimistic. It has touched the 200-day line this morning and is currently under support. On the downside, ETH has broken below the uptrend line formed since early November last year for the first time on the daily close. Therefore, if it falls below the 200-day line again, it is recommended to clear positions and wait and see if there are still positions.
There is a high probability that this callback is not over yet. Judging from the 3-day K-line of multiple altcoins, the K-line on 6.10 has formed a long lower shadow. They are still in the process of covering, and these lower shadows will eventually be covered. Theoretically, the formation of these long lower shadow lines does not come from real "buying demand", but from the vacuum zone caused by liquidation and short covering. Therefore, there will definitely be a step back to test the real purchasing power. This is also the principle that Beidiao mentioned before that the pin in the bear market must be replenished.
In general, Beidiao personally believes that there is no rush to buy the bottom at the moment, at least until BTC returns above the 120-day line. The pace of trading needs to slow down significantly from this year on. You would rather miss some "opportunities" than jump in easily and lose your principal.
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