区块帮—神鱼

Bitcoin (BTC) is making waves once again! On May 19, 2025, the price broke through $107,000, and the market cap soared to $2.1 trillion, reaching an all-time high. Notable cryptocurrency analyst Scott Melker poured cold water on the situation: despite Bitcoin recording the highest daily and weekly closing prices, bearish divergence signals have emerged, and the market is cooling off from overheating. Monday's performance is crucial. Interestingly, Melker previously predicted Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2025! Is this a bubble driven by market euphoria, or a well-founded new starting point?

Introduction: When "Digital Gold" Encounters Sovereign Credit Crisis.
On May 17, 2025, after Bitcoin sharply fluctuated upon reaching $105,000, market sentiment was ignited by a prophecy — legendary trader Arthur Hayes claimed that "Bitcoin will break $1 million by 2028." Behind this prediction of over 900% growth lies a long-ignored truth: although China bans cryptocurrency trading, it has never prohibited private ownership. In the whirlpool of global debt crisis and geopolitical splits, this policy "gray area" is becoming a strategic pivot in the capital's shadow war.

Bitcoin is expected to surge in 2025, sparking speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After a tumultuous start to the year, new momentum, a recovery in market sentiment, and bullish indicators have analysts pondering: Are we about to repeat the Bitcoin bull market of 2017? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and long-term holder trends to assess the potential for explosive phases in this cryptocurrency market cycle.
Comparison of the 2025 Bitcoin cycle with past bull markets.
The recent surge in Bitcoin prices has exceeded expectations. According to the 'Growth of Bitcoin since the Cycle Low' chart, despite facing macro challenges and pullbacks, Bitcoin's trajectory is highly consistent with the cycles of 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.

Overview of Ethereum's major news in the last 24 hours
1. Market dynamics overview ETH price performance
ETH dropped below 2400 dollars on May 19, with a 24-hour decline of 3.17% (as of 10:16 data). The current market is highly volatile, putting short-term technicals under pressure.

Frequent unusual movements of giant whales
In the past 24 hours, multiple giant whale addresses concentrated their sell-off of ETH, totaling over 13,000 ETH, with total profits exceeding 5.5 million dollars, raising market concerns about short-term selling pressure.

2. Review of bearish factors
1. Giant whales concentrated sell-off
6384.5 ETH transferred to Binance (05/19 10:19)
A giant whale sold holdings at an average price of about 2435 dollars, profiting 4.26 million dollars compared to a cost price of 1768 dollars a month ago, showing a strong willingness to take profits.

News: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott P. Bessenet stated on Sunday that if countries do not reach a trade agreement during the 90-day tariff suspension period, tariff rates will soon return to 'equivalent' levels. 'President Trump has warned them that if they do not negotiate in good faith, tariffs will rise back to levels seen on April 2,' Bessenet said on the program. Bessenet revealed that the U.S. is focused on finalizing agreements with 18 'important' trading partners, but did not specify the exact speed of the return to 'equivalent' tariff rates. The recent decline in Ethereum is a technical correction aimed at retesting key support levels before continuing to rise to $3,000 and higher. Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto stated that the weekly stochastic relative strength index (Stochastic RSI) is currently at 79, indicating that ETH 'still has momentum to continue rising.' Analyst Chimp of the North stated that Ethereum's downward space may be limited to $2,400 and indicated that Ethereum may continue to pull back and retest the $2,400 support level before rising again, targeting a range of $3,000 to $3,300.

On Saturday, I said at the square that it would definitely come to a big wave, and ETH would return to 2360. I didn't expect ETH to be so strong and go directly to 2320. Why did it drop so sharply? The United States is stirring up trouble again?
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a stern warning on Sunday, indicating that if countries do not negotiate "in good faith," the US will restore the highest tariff levels announced by Trump on April 2. This signifies that the US is taking a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations.
Is the cryptocurrency market witnessing another 5.19? Will tariff policies repeat the same mistakes?
On May 19, 2018: The US and China jointly announced a suspension of mutual tariffs and agreed to negotiate to resolve differences. In July 2018, the US violated the consensus and unilaterally escalated tariff measures, leading to the suspension of negotiations.

Small-cap stocks often lead the upward trend, followed by active sector rotation, with market hotspots continuously emerging, forming a virtuous cycle where multiple sectors rise one after another, driving the overall market up.
Investors can adopt a more proactive strategy, such as appropriately increasing positions, participating in hot sectors and strong stocks, as well as diversifying investments across different industries to spread risk. Due to the overall rise in stock prices, chasing high strategies are relatively feasible, but profit targets and stop-loss points need to be set, and investment portfolios should be regularly evaluated and adjusted.
A bear market appears
The main signs of a bear market include:
① The rate of increase in stock prices slows down;

Industry news: Regarding ETFs, last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $604 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $41.59 million.
The 7-day average transaction fee on the Bitcoin chain rose to $2.40, an increase of about $1 since early May, reaching a new high for the year. According to Glassnode data, the long-term dormant BTC 'illiquid supply' has reached an all-time high, indicating a reduction in the BTC available for trading on exchanges. Once demand rises in the future, it may trigger a supply shock, further driving up prices. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance has rebounded after a previous decline, which may suggest that its short-term pullback relative to other crypto assets is more influenced by liquidity rather than a structural shift towards an 'altcoin season.'

In principle, we do not speculate on whether there will be a bull market, because it is not needed.
Low valuation and good performance will definitely rise.
However, if clues and logic are found, it is necessary to analyze them.

I estimate that there may not be a bull market in 2025, as the momentum for a bull market has been crushed.
Two perspectives;

First, the fundamentals; a true bull market must have the support of fundamentals.
That is, strong economic growth and strong corporate profits drive stock market growth.
Originally, 2025 had this expectation and possibility.
But with Trump's rise to power, these possibilities may have disappeared.
Because the uncertainty caused by Trump affects the entire world, and uncertainty is the biggest obstacle to the economy.

Does the daily-level adjustment of Ethereum mean this round of rise is over? Will it fall below $2000 again?

Market trends come in two forms: either up or down. Therefore, a normal adjustment after a rise is healthy. When the market is adjusting, we should pay more attention to when the decline will stop and where the effective support is.
Only by judging the trend through the market can you capture your profit space; otherwise, you will be confused whether to chase when it rises or unsure when to enter when it falls.

Let's first look at the daily chart of Ethereum. The daily trend is currently downward. The rapid rise a few days ago has caused Ethereum to deviate from its path, reaching above the upper track, which can easily trigger a return.

In order to implement the important consensus reached during the high-level China-US economic and trade talks, and in accordance with the (Tariff Law of the People's Republic of China), (Customs Law of the People's Republic of China), (Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China) and other laws and regulations as well as the basic principles of international law, and with the approval of the State Council, starting from today (14th) at 12:01, the measures for additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States will be adjusted. The relevant matters are as follows —
Adjust the additional tariff rate stipulated in the (Announcement of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Additional Tariffs on Imported Goods Originating from the United States) (Announcement No. 4 of the Taxation Commission 2025) from 34% to 10%, and suspend the implementation of the additional tariff rate of 24% on the US for 90 days.

After the market closed last Friday, the regulatory authorities issued a document that did not attract much attention, called the Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies, which unbinds future mergers and acquisitions with four 'firsts', marking a significant reform.
First, it introduces a simplified review process, allowing qualifying transactions to be completed in 5 trading days. The attitude is clear: encouraging mergers and acquisitions.
Secondly, it allows installment payments for acquisition amounts, extending the registration validity period from 12 months to 48 months, significantly reducing the pressure on corporate acquisitions; this effectively increases the leverage in the merger and acquisition process.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has once again welcomed a wave of significant increases!
The most insane surge came from the Meme coin 'TRUMP' issued by Trump himself, which soared nearly 65% on Thursday, reaching a high of $15.47, and slightly retreated to around $13 on Friday. According to China News Network, on April 23, Trump announced that the top 220 investors holding 'Trump coins' would have the opportunity to have dinner with him at his private club.
The world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has experienced a surge. On the night of April 25, Bitcoin broke through the $95,000 mark, reaching a new high since February 24, with a cumulative increase of over 11% in the last five trading days.

Stage One: The rookie protection period. Buying in during a bull market meant making money. I experienced the allure of the crypto world, watching my assets soar every day and feeling happy. In the end, I thought I had bought too little, borrowed money to invest, bought in heavily, and got stuck at the peak. No matter how much it rose, I wouldn't think of selling. When the bear market ended, I lost everything I had earned, and in self-comfort, I decided to hold on indefinitely. At this moment, you understood 'value investing.'
Stage Two: After suffering losses, I began to study trading techniques. I could seize hot trends, buy and make a profit, and then run away. In the end, I missed the big market movements and made only a small profit.

Looking back at the '519' in 2021, Bitcoin plunged from $50,000, directly halving to $30,000, while Ethereum dropped over 40% in a single day. It was a catastrophe in the crypto circle, with countless people going bankrupt, losing everything, and some even tragically resorting to jumping off buildings due to unbearable financial losses.
Now, a similar crash scenario has returned, making people feel anxious and fearing a repeat of historical tragedies.
On the night of May 19, it was a sleepless night for crypto traders, with those suffering heavy losses expressing their sentiments; this day is dubbed '519 Memorial Day' in the crypto circle. That night, Bitcoin fell below the $30,000 mark, dipping to $29,000, with a drop of up to 34%. Other cryptocurrencies also could not escape the crash, with Ethereum halving; other newly popular coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu saw drops of up to 56% and 64%, respectively.

On May 12, Hong Hao, CEO of Huafu International and Chief Global Asset Allocation Officer, shared his views on U.S. assets, gold, and Hong Kong stocks in the Hong Hao Strategy Program. The key points are as follows:

1) Any non-U.S. assets will outperform this year; gold, which is the opposite of the dollar, will definitely outperform significantly, and has already done so. I believe more and more people will recognize this trend. Hong Kong stocks are non-U.S. assets, and I believe that Hong Kong stocks will reach new highs this year, which we mentioned last time.

2) You know the exceptionalism of the U.S.; U.S. assets have outperformed for many years, but there is a saying in China: extremes will turn to opposites. If something has outperformed for many years, the probability of underperformance this year is very high. The dollar, U.S. stocks, and even U.S. bonds are all performing weakly this year. Unless something unexpected happens, this trend should continue, so this year should focus on assets outside of the U.S., such as Europe, Hong Kong stocks, euros, and gold.

We have always emphasized that the big wave 33 of the SSE is starting or will soon start. The SSE index reached a new high of 3417 points on May 14. According to Wave Yuanba analysis, there are two possible trends here:
1. If a new high above 3417 points is reached before next Monday (+-1 day), it is highly likely to break the new high of 3439 points, indicating that we are currently in the wave structure of big wave 33, and the future trend can only be upwards.
2. If we cannot break the new high of 3417 points before next Monday (+-1 day), it is highly likely that we are experiencing the last wave of adjustment before the big wave 33, which is a plan to fill the gap. The current important gap is the missing point of 3186. After filling the gap, the decision to create a new low of 3040 points will depend on market sentiment and volume changes.

In 2025, everyone will not feel like the market is reminiscent of 2020.
From the perspective of K-lines, there may not need to be a second pullback to accelerate; the main players in lifting the index may still be liquor, securities, etc. History won't simply repeat itself; the process may be slightly different, but the outcome is likely to be the same.

Most people have been trapped by technology stocks.
At the beginning of 2020, almost everyone believed that technology was the main line. The first round of semiconductor rises saw most people chasing technology stocks, while the market reversed and lifted indices like liquor, new energy, pharmaceuticals, securities, real estate, etc.
This time, it is likely to be the same; you will find the situation remarkably similar. After the 924 market, technology stocks have already risen twice, and many stocks have increased several times; their bull market has already been overdrawn in advance.

After recording the largest weekly drop in nearly 6 months, gold prices rebounded strongly. On the morning of May 19, spot gold prices suddenly surged, reaching $3,240 per ounce, with an increase of 1.3%.

Since May 7, spot gold prices have continuously declined from a high of about $3,430 per ounce, with a single-day drop of about $72 per ounce on May 14, representing a daily decrease of 2.23%.

On May 16, the international credit rating agency Moody's announced that due to the increase in U.S. government debt and interest expenditures, it decided to downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This has triggered market concerns about the widening U.S. fiscal deficit, which typically increases the safe-haven appeal of gold, leading to a rise in gold prices.