On May 12, Hong Hao, CEO of Huafu International and Chief Global Asset Allocation Officer, shared his views on U.S. assets, gold, and Hong Kong stocks in the Hong Hao Strategy Program. The key points are as follows:
1) Any non-U.S. assets will outperform this year; gold, which is the opposite of the dollar, will definitely outperform significantly, and has already done so. I believe more and more people will recognize this trend. Hong Kong stocks are non-U.S. assets, and I believe that Hong Kong stocks will reach new highs this year, which we mentioned last time.
2) You know the exceptionalism of the U.S.; U.S. assets have outperformed for many years, but there is a saying in China: extremes will turn to opposites. If something has outperformed for many years, the probability of underperformance this year is very high. The dollar, U.S. stocks, and even U.S. bonds are all performing weakly this year. Unless something unexpected happens, this trend should continue, so this year should focus on assets outside of the U.S., such as Europe, Hong Kong stocks, euros, and gold.
3) If we believe that the dollar hasn't finished declining, then gold prices haven't finished rising. If we believe that the U.S. credit system has been damaged, as Buffett said, we don't know if it's two years or twenty years (the U.S. financial system can no longer sustain itself). If it's two years, it will rise for 2 years; if it's twenty years, it will rise for 20 years. It's that simple. Gold and stocks tend to move in opposite directions, especially in relation to U.S. stocks, so if you buy gold, it will provide a good hedge against the risks of U.S. stocks.
4) Trump is a volatile instigator. While he is here, you will be restless every day. A single person cannot change the direction of the economic cycle; they can only change the amplitude and frequency of its fluctuations. But the big trend remains unchanged. Although he is causing disruptions, he says he wants a strong dollar and that U.S. manufacturing will return, this has not happened so far. Apart from the market's violent fluctuations, we have not seen him achieve what he wants.
5) I believe that Hong Kong stocks will still reach new highs; we have actually been saying this for a long time. Technology, consumption, and healthcare are the sectors we have always talked about. Among these three sectors, relative to national policies supporting technology and consumption, or their own profit growth and valuation, they are relatively the most attractive sectors.