Industry news: Regarding ETFs, last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $604 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $41.59 million.
The 7-day average transaction fee on the Bitcoin chain rose to $2.40, an increase of about $1 since early May, reaching a new high for the year. According to Glassnode data, the long-term dormant BTC 'illiquid supply' has reached an all-time high, indicating a reduction in the BTC available for trading on exchanges. Once demand rises in the future, it may trigger a supply shock, further driving up prices. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance has rebounded after a previous decline, which may suggest that its short-term pullback relative to other crypto assets is more influenced by liquidity rather than a structural shift towards an 'altcoin season.'
Arthur Hayes stated that the altcoin season requires waiting for Bitcoin to break above $110,000 and continue to rise in volume to the $150,000 to $200,000 range. He expects this to happen in the summer or early third quarter of this year, after which funds will begin to rotate into various altcoins. Gold accounts for about 20% of his personal investment portfolio. In the upcoming bull market over the next 18-24 months, ETH's growth may surpass SOL's. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by the end of 2028, before Trump's term ends. By the end of this year, Bitcoin's target price is approximately $250,000. This is an overly optimistic view, and even regarding Bitcoin's performance today, one must consider the possibility of a trend ending. The final price of Bitcoin in this bull market will also likely be difficult to reach the expectations of $150,000 to $200,000.
Analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin's annual compound growth rate has declined from over 100% to about 30%-40% since institutionalization in 2020, and it continues to decline. He predicts that as capital continues to flow in, Bitcoin's long-term CAGR may trend towards 8%, aligning with monetary expansion and GDP growth rates, and is expected to reach this level within the next 15-20 years. In terms of market capitalization, Bitcoin's long-term compound growth rate will definitely continue to decline, meaning that the price increases of Bitcoin in future bull markets will be less pronounced.
Market analysts believe that Ethereum's recent decline is a technical pullback aimed at re-testing key support levels before continuing to rise to $3,000 and higher. Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto indicated that the current value of the weekly stochastic relative strength index (Stochastic RSI) is 79, suggesting that ETH 'still has momentum to continue upward.'
Analyst Chimp of the North stated that Ethereum's downside may be limited to $2,400. He also indicated that Ethereum may continue to pull back, re-testing the support level at $2,400 before rising again, with a target range of $3,000 to $3,300.
This week, two cryptocurrency projects will unlock tokens, releasing a total value of approximately 420 million USD.
On May 19, Pyth unlocked approximately 2.12 billion tokens (about 340 million USD), accounting for 21.25% of the total supply.
On May 21, FTN unlocked approximately 20 million tokens (about 87.8 million USD), accounting for 2.0% of the total supply.
On-chain, traders betting on Bitcoin price declines in this bull market cycle are clearly more cautious compared to the 2021 bull market cycle, indicating that traders currently have a strong aversion to bearish risks, which is a bullish signal for Bitcoin prices.
In terms of market trends, Bitcoin's performance today is poor. The immediate drop after breaking the platform can become a turning point, especially if today's trading volume remains sufficiently high after the U.S. stock market opens. If the closing pattern remains the same or worsens, we need to consider the possibility of a short-term trend ending or even a medium to long-term trend reversal forming. There is still support around 100,000, but if this support faces a trend reversal, its strength will be very limited. It's important to observe the trends in the next couple of days; this is quite significant, considering the potential for a trend reversal.
ETH is correlated, and there are signs of fund withdrawal, waiting for Bitcoin to choose a direction. If Bitcoin can maintain its upward or high-level oscillation trend, there is still room above for ETH.
With the altcoin market reacting, after Bitcoin's adjustment, funds are starting to avoid risks. The market environment needs Bitcoin to provide a very good backdrop for further altcoin rallies, requiring a stable and optimistic market environment. Currently, market panic is evident.
Market data:
Fear and Greed Index: 74