In 2025, everyone will not feel like the market is reminiscent of 2020.
From the perspective of K-lines, there may not need to be a second pullback to accelerate; the main players in lifting the index may still be liquor, securities, etc. History won't simply repeat itself; the process may be slightly different, but the outcome is likely to be the same.
Most people have been trapped by technology stocks.
At the beginning of 2020, almost everyone believed that technology was the main line. The first round of semiconductor rises saw most people chasing technology stocks, while the market reversed and lifted indices like liquor, new energy, pharmaceuticals, securities, real estate, etc.
This time, it is likely to be the same; you will find the situation remarkably similar. After the 924 market, technology stocks have already risen twice, and many stocks have increased several times; their bull market has already been overdrawn in advance.
It is not because the banks have risen, nor because securities and liquor have risen; it is because their own cycles have ended. Major shareholders have also successfully reduced their holdings at high positions, and the future market will be a gradual decline; any rebound is an opportunity to exit.
Of course, it cannot be ruled out that some technology stocks are good companies with performance and growth; they will rise independently. Whether it is semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robots, or other concepts, most companies are just telling stories...
There is only one rule in the stock market, which is high and low switching! Any stocks that rise too much will revert to valuation, and the flowering period of technology stocks is very short, but their bloom is very brilliant, which is precisely why it attracts countless people to chase and kill.
Currently, the index bull market has started.
If there were doubts about the bull market during the 924 market, this round of rising has likely confirmed it! Currently, it is the second wave rebound of the bull market, with 3040 points as the rebound starting point, similar to the 2646 points in 2020!
Back then, there were also various unexpected bad news, the market panicked and crashed. After everyone was washed out, the market fluctuated upwards and then suddenly accelerated.
The current situation is also similar; the stock market has no new things, and generally, everything is about the same. However, people will never learn a lesson because in five years, many newcomers will have entered the stock market.
The essence of the stock market is that seasoned players earn the tuition fees of newcomers. If no new players join, everyone can only play with existing stocks. Allowing others to make mistakes is sometimes a form of support and also a kind of blessing.
The center of the main index has already shifted upward; it used to protect below 3000 points, and now it is around 3200 points, later it will be around 3400 points. The index is getting higher and higher, while our index players' carnival is the darkest moment for friends trapped in small and medium-cap stocks.
Chapter summary
Personal opinion, the index will rise higher and higher in the future, and the stock market will also catch up. However, most people may not wait until the stocks rise together and will have already sold at a loss.
Weight lifting the index will lead to future small and medium-cap stocks catching up; the current market rhythm is still dominated by weight industries.