In principle, we do not speculate on whether there will be a bull market, because it is not needed.
Low valuation and good performance will definitely rise.
However, if clues and logic are found, it is necessary to analyze them.
I estimate that there may not be a bull market in 2025, as the momentum for a bull market has been crushed.
Two perspectives;
First, the fundamentals; a true bull market must have the support of fundamentals.
That is, strong economic growth and strong corporate profits drive stock market growth.
Originally, 2025 had this expectation and possibility.
But with Trump's rise to power, these possibilities may have disappeared.
Because the uncertainty caused by Trump affects the entire world, and uncertainty is the biggest obstacle to the economy.
So, economic recovery might be delayed.
At least it won't be as smooth as previously expected.
Secondly, the will.
Because of the uncertainties brought by Trump, the goal of the national team is also clear: to provide a safety net and prevent a systemic financial crisis; however, it does not lift the market, which means supporting without lifting.
Because the external environment is uncertain, speculation leads to bubbles, which means risk.
If there are risks in the stock market, a decline will create enormous short-selling momentum.
It's easy to lift the market, but saving it is difficult; regulators are clear about that.
And Trump is currently looking for risks and loopholes, so he definitely won't give the enemy any opportunities.
So my judgment is that above 3200-3300 points, at least from the perspective of capital, the national team will not intervene, because it is unnecessary.
Therefore, from the regulatory perspective, supporting without lifting is the optimal strategy.
Since the fundamentals do not support it and the will does not support it, where does the bull market come from?
However, there will still be a bull market, but it won't be a comprehensive bull market; rather, it will be a structural bull market, corresponding to three types.
First, there is a cyclical reversal; every industry has cyclical changes.
Secondly, there is a change in market style.
For example, the banks have been in a major bull market in recent years; otherwise, the current A-shares might be at 2800 points.
The banks have performed well in recent years, but in fact, their performance hasn't changed much, with low growth.
The only change is that the market style has become conservative, thus leaning towards high dividends.
Thirdly, the changes within the company itself, such as Tencent and Moutai.
As long as the company itself grows, with a low valuation, it will rise sooner or later.
For example, a stock currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times; if it grows at a rate of 15%+ annually for the next ten years, will the stock price not rise?
A stock currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times; if it grows at a rate of 10%+ annually for the next ten years, will the stock price not rise?
So the conclusion is that the current A-shares do not support a bull market, or rather do not support a comprehensive bull market.
However, there will definitely be a structural bull market, and this structural bull market will be long-term.
